Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on March 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x991c81547156d35eaa83dc262e52c3072f3736bcf9f18591b02c39cc81f8764c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,678
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,678 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4734…9178backed Yes | 1c | 2,065$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed Yes | 15c | 752.83$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.18 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 61c | 413.66$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.14 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 10c | 400$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe170…3c0bbacked No | 79c | 385.08$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.48 | 79 | 50.6%40 W · 39 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x711a…ce09backed Yes | 41c | 345.11$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.01 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 16c | 323$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.09 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ebe…bfc2backed Yes | 17c | 287.21$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.09 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb261…a612backed Yes | 49c | 219.9$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.55 | 105 | 42.9%45 W · 60 L | -9.9wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked Yes | 18c | 209.88$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.96 | 368 | 19.6%72 W · 296 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x45c9…a3d1backed Yes | 12c | 206.45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 275 | 60%165 W · 110 L | +7.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4bfe…b127backed Yes | 43c | 201.87$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.8 | 76 | 14.5%11 W · 65 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba9e…58debacked Yes | 22c | 197.17$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.25 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 72c | 161.27$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.72 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 29c | 142.66$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.49 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9466…4d38backed Yes | 54c | 141.14$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.11 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x014b…243bbacked Yes | 39c | 141.07$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.3 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2588…48babacked Yes | 50c | 140.83$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.81 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +3.7wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x578d…bbaabacked Yes | 33c | 124.2$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.41 | 80 | 60%48 W · 32 L | +6.7wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 57c | 122.83$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.6 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7943…27a1backed Yes | 24c | 119$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.43 | 320 | 44.7%143 W · 177 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64b0…ab64backed Yes | 53c | 116.05$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.17 | 294 | 59.5%175 W · 119 L | +20.7wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes | 20c | 115.79$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.96 | 695 | 20%139 W · 556 L | -44.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 44c | 115.5$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.25 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ced…7ce8backed No | 45c | 111.11$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.11 | 137 | 48.2%66 W · 71 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8677…9724backed Yes | 47c | 105.92$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 55 | 40%22 W · 33 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b4…48b2backed Yes | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 206 | 31.6%65 W · 141 L | -23.6wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0be5…0db3backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b31…852cbacked Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.98 | 257 | 42.4%109 W · 148 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed No | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa41a…0fd7backed Yes | 16c | 94.76$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.71 | 72 | 29.2%21 W · 51 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 43c | 91$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.39 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 53c | 87.8$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.93 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 73c | 85.75$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.33 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13e6…c310backed Yes | 34c | 85.12$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.17 | 159 | 11.3%18 W · 141 L | -10.1wins | -0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 58c | 79.19$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.62 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed Yes | 51c | 78.64$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7f…44d4backed No | 69c | 78.13$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.58 | 249 | 66.7%166 W · 83 L | +15.3wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x09c5…9e8abacked Yes | 28c | 73.19$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.22 | 213 | 33.8%72 W · 141 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8eea…e285backed Yes | 42c | 68.07$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.48 | 410 | 46.8%192 W · 218 L | +57.4wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +58.9%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x3db6…4894backed Yes | 28c | 64.29$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 28c | 62.03$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.24 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 33c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x324f…15b1backed Yes | 39c | 60$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.65 | 40 | 22.5%9 W · 31 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1299…f6b1backed Yes | 28c | 53.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x87c7…d1b6backed Yes | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41e1…56dabacked Yes | 44c | 49.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.19 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb879…aa96backed Yes | 38c | 49.55$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.97 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 25c | 47.55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.92 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98c3…6ca1backed Yes | 42c | 47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.74 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 40c | 45.09$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.87 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbb4…9ed0backed Yes | 51c | 41.27$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf413…3f6cbacked Yes | 46c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 58 | 62.1%36 W · 22 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d84…4ff1backed No | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 295 | 58%171 W · 124 L | -13.7wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f43…a1dfbacked Yes | 38c | 39.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 70 | 37.1%26 W · 44 L | +4.5wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 67c | 37.75$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.39 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed No | 62c | 36.25$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.88 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 59c | 36$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.65 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0cab…7489backed No | 75c | 35$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 103 | 71.8%74 W · 29 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 78c | 31.92$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.92 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee89…cfb3backed Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61bb…66f2backed Yes | 35c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | +6.9wins | +0.15per pick | 21cpaid | +88.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3738…ed32backed Yes | 45c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.35 | 201 | 44.3%89 W · 112 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.85 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1715…2ae1backed Yes | 35c | 29.48$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfbc…4764backed Yes | 57c | 26.53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8288…4c83backed Yes | 41c | 26.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.73 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15ea…98e6backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.05 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | -3.2wins | -0.10per pick | 73cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked No | 77c | 19.56$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.56 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on March 10?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 12°C or below on March 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 13°C on March 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 14°C on March 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on March 10?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on March 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.