NBA · resolved market
Spread: Magic (-6.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9fae5b3da078aec0b77c58e016e35669a893d7b2d3c891930d835a97a0e9f9df
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Bullsof Magic, Bulls
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,681
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,696
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,681 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5137…1556backed Bulls | 52c | 371.39$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.27 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Magic | 47c | 316.98$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.98 | 762 | 49.5%377 W · 385 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe45d…f77ebacked Bulls | 53c | 283.02$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.02 | 253 | 36.8%93 W · 160 L | -10.2wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Magic | 46c | 249.81$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.51 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa717…8919backed Magic | 50c | 207.5$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.2 | 163 | 61.3%100 W · 63 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Bulls | 53c | 160$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.68 | 597 | 43.6%260 W · 337 L | -11.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Magic | 46c | 110$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.68 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Magic | 47c | 95$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.65 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2255…65d8backed Bulls | 53c | 95$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.65 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8984…8af8backed Bulls | 52c | 55$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +5.2wins | +0.26per pick | 44cpaid | +61.4%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Magic | 48c | 53.29$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.58 | 710 | 52.1%370 W · 340 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6158…81bcbacked Magic | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -3.5wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Magic | 48c | 27.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x958c…af57backed Bulls | 53c | 26.58$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.49 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf56d…4dcfbacked Bulls | 54c | 24.09$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.08 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b31…a766backed Bulls | 54c | 19.98$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.19 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Magic (-6.5)this page
- Bulls vs. MagicBulls won
- Bulls vs. Magic: 1H MoneylineBulls won
- Bulls vs. Magic: 1H O/U 112.5Under won
- Bulls vs. Magic: O/U 231.5Under won
- Bulls vs. Magic: O/U 232.5Under won
- Bulls vs. Magic: O/U 233.5Under won
- Spread: Magic (-5.5)Bulls won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.