NBA · resolved market
Spread: Magic (-5.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9e720a608faf7afa80174989efc04e4feebe368d6778cd8ec31ebe697b809369
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Bullsof Magic, Bulls
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $42,470
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,697
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,470 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8058…d023backed Bulls | 48c | 20,000$9,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,400 | 79 | 46.8%37 W · 42 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc63…ded0backed Magic | 52c | 16,021$8,371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,371.02 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.2wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x74d3…0332backed Magic | 52c | 10,000$5,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,200 | 346 | 45.4%157 W · 189 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Magic | 53c | 5,000$2,650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,650 | 1,269 | 44.5%565 W · 704 L | +32.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88a2…d974backed Bulls | 47c | 4,287$2,015 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,272.23 | 59 | 47.5%28 W · 31 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Bulls | 48c | 3,236$1,550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,685.07 | 710 | 52.1%370 W · 340 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe895…c3dabacked Bulls | 47c | 3,200$1,504 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,696 | 79 | 39.2%31 W · 48 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Bulls | 47c | 1,260$588 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$671.58 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Magic | 54c | 1,084$580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$580.12 | 857 | 42.6%365 W · 492 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d1…4660backed Magic | 2c | 718$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.36 | 390 | 18.2%71 W · 319 L | +27.6wins | +0.07per pick | 11cpaid | +62.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Bulls | 47c | 640.35$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$341.46 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Bulls | 46c | 563.51$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.3 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Magic | 39c | 533.33$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.33 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25a1…67b0backed Magic | 51c | 499.99$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Magic | 52c | 406.25$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.25 | 762 | 49.5%377 W · 385 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Bulls | 45c | 303$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.65 | 1,451 | 49.7%721 W · 730 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Bulls | 48c | 200$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 1,290 | 44%567 W · 723 L | +35.0wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x48a5…a903backed Bulls | 48c | 197.92$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.92 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d9b…eb8dbacked Bulls | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.82 | 86 | 59.3%51 W · 35 L | +6.4wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Magic | 45c | 181.82$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.82 | 471 | 44.2%208 W · 263 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa2a…55b1backed Magic | 58c | 180$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea0…b56abacked Bulls | 75c | 133.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | -3.3wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Bulls | 48c | 103.52$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.2 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c0c…6825backed Bulls | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 60 | 58.3%35 W · 25 L | +5.3wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0495…c68fbacked Bulls | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 113 | 46%52 W · 61 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Bulls | 52c | 58$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.94 | 597 | 43.6%260 W · 337 L | -11.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd99…f375backed Bulls | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 381 | 51.2%195 W · 186 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf07…39d8backed Magic | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x82c9…616fbacked Magic | 47c | 42.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcda0…a51abacked Bulls | 60c | 27.5$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 296 | 52.7%156 W · 140 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Magic | 53c | 27.12$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.33 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4731…cba8backed Magic | 51c | 20.41$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 120 | 50.8%61 W · 59 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Magic (-5.5)this page
- Bulls vs. MagicBulls won
- Bulls vs. Magic: 1H MoneylineBulls won
- Bulls vs. Magic: 1H O/U 112.5Under won
- Bulls vs. Magic: O/U 231.5Under won
- Bulls vs. Magic: O/U 232.5Under won
- Bulls vs. Magic: O/U 233.5Under won
- Spread: Magic (-6.5)Bulls won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.