TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Luminosity (+1.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Spiritof Spirit, Luminosity
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$164,286
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$198,223

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $164,286 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 181 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x30c7…ac3bbacked Luminosity39c35,000$13,550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,549.9977052.7%406 W · 364 L+28.0wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdb85…152fbacked Spirit61c30,000$18,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,70016543.6%72 W · 93 L-7.1wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-7.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6d36…f787backed Luminosity39c25,000$9,650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,649.99911.1%1 W · 8 L-2.1wins-0.23per pick34cpaid-66.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xdf80…3259backed Spirit61c18,271$11,218 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,052.6110254.9%56 W · 46 L+5.7wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+9.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3881…804ebacked Spirit62c14,386$8,919 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,466.541,52351.5%785 W · 738 L-8.0wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Luminosity38c12,500$4,750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,749.9923245.7%106 W · 126 L-8.2wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-0.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcf60…a6f5backed Spirit62c10,000$6,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,80050254.2%272 W · 230 L-11.2wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x82d2…beeabacked Spirit62c9,209$5,664 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,544.351,02052.2%532 W · 488 L+26.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1bcd…0a69backed Spirit61c8,200$5,002 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,1989749.5%48 W · 49 L-3.5wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-10%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x29b5…cc6cbacked Spirit60c7,909$4,771 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,137.435,09555.1%2,805 W · 2,290 L+119.3wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb0a3…c6b7backed Spirit62c6,575$4,077 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,498.5520%1 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.16per pick36cpaid-67.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6b97…8d30backed Luminosity38c6,545$2,487 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,487.2567951.4%349 W · 330 L+6.1wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x183f…85e3backed Luminosity39c6,000$2,340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,34023848.3%115 W · 123 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-2.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7645…3117backed Luminosity39c6,000$2,360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,36072046.1%332 W · 388 L-2.6wins0.00per pick46cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b6d…27bbbacked Luminosity39c4,454$1,737 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,737.195253.8%28 W · 24 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+7.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe922…39b3backed Luminosity38c3,000$1,140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,14060248.7%293 W · 309 L+0.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb9ab…f282backed Luminosity39c3,000$1,170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,1701,08950.9%554 W · 535 L+38.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0a7c…8964backed Luminosity40c2,208$872 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$872.1661654.9%338 W · 278 L+12.4wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2a74…de59backed Luminosity38c2,000$760 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7607951.9%41 W · 38 L-0.4wins0.00per pick52cpaid-3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4cb0…57e0backed Luminosity38c1,800$684 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6846144.3%27 W · 34 L-2.3wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-6.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8992…ed1fbacked Spirit62c1,800$1,116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6844963.3%31 W · 18 L+6.9wins+0.14per pick49cpaid+53.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xb272…5030backed Spirit60c1,786$1,072 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$714.582560%15 W · 10 L+2.0wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+9.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x03c5…5f61backed Luminosity38c1,714$651 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$651.1623732.9%78 W · 159 L-8.0wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-15%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3308…f04bbacked Luminosity43c1,650$714 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$713.9516842.9%72 W · 96 L-5.4wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-23.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2b9c…a518backed Luminosity39c1,500$585 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58517445.4%79 W · 95 L-8.0wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-11.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa9ca…6a8bbacked Spirit62c1,452$900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$551.6175545.6%344 W · 411 L-21.2wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8f69…7df1backed Spirit63c1,448$912 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$536.0675550.6%382 W · 373 L+17.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+1.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8be4…a700backed Spirit61c1,200$728 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4725653.6%30 W · 26 L-4.8wins-0.09per pick62cpaid-16.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4b9d…d66abacked Spirit62c1,180$732 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$448.4475%3 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick67cpaid+11.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2714…960fbacked Spirit62c1,129$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$429.0218754.5%102 W · 85 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x69ae…b263backed Luminosity38c1,103$419 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4192564%16 W · 9 L+3.0wins+0.12per pick52cpaid+21.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xdcaf…e271backed Luminosity37c977.7$362 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$361.7537946.4%176 W · 203 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd3e7…bf64backed Luminosity39c974.66$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$380.1259841.3%247 W · 351 L-20.8wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-11.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x489b…a6ecbacked Luminosity38c866$329 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$329.083737.8%14 W · 23 L-2.8wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-31%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x64a3…450abacked Spirit62c790$490 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$300.231149.2%153 W · 158 L+0.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8a2c…3c32backed Spirit69c725.11$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$225.1120161.7%124 W · 77 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1025…7e11backed Luminosity40c699.99$283 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28357740.4%233 W · 344 L+1.4wins0.00per pick40cpaid-3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe4dd…4f27backed Luminosity36c600$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21650947%239 W · 270 L+11.3wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc5ff…abd0backed Spirit62c555$344 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$210.938950.4%196 W · 193 L+9.5wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xeaeb…c2d0backed Luminosity38c507.14$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.632540%10 W · 15 L-1.8wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-20.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6dcd…5ef7backed Spirit62c500$310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19030153.8%162 W · 139 L-1.3wins0.00per pick54cpaid-4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x992b…5053backed Luminosity38c500$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1904660.9%28 W · 18 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick57cpaid+11.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc800…4117backed Spirit53c499.48$265 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$234.0211030.9%34 W · 76 L-10.2wins-0.09per pick40cpaid-34.1%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x5592…aedebacked Spirit62c483.87$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.8719857.1%113 W · 85 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2117…5c26backed Spirit62c476$295 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$180.8824349%119 W · 124 L-6.9wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-11.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x677f…1228backed Spirit62c443.55$275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$168.5514040%56 W · 84 L-3.4wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-8.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9ff4…d731backed Luminosity45c430$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.519940.7%81 W · 118 L-6.6wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-11.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xffca…0b64backed Luminosity39c400$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15552150.3%262 W · 259 L-6.4wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9e48…6158backed Spirit63c390$246 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.338052.6%200 W · 180 L+0.9wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe026…0404backed Luminosity40c379.05$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.1344852.5%235 W · 213 L+5.8wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5453…a834backed Spirit63c373.37$235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.1531954.5%174 W · 145 L+9.2wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+12.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x09da…50bcbacked Luminosity40c348.17$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.6243155.9%241 W · 190 L+14.9wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3e9f…3988backed Spirit58c338.79$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.4722552.9%119 W · 106 L-8.4wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-13.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x54e0…b02cbacked Luminosity37c335.95$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.131,65932.7%542 W · 1,117 L-49.4wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-12.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x98ba…4212backed Spirit61c327.87$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.8719847.5%94 W · 104 L0.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x65e6…42dcbacked Spirit61c327.87$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.8712727.6%35 W · 92 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-13.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x41d1…bac0backed Spirit62c322.58$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.586250%31 W · 31 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc5b…f102backed Spirit69c318.98$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.9873758.2%429 W · 308 L-22.6wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-5.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe893…afaebacked Luminosity38c308.87$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.3711644.8%52 W · 64 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Luminosity38c292.04$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.191,79059.2%1,060 W · 730 L+106.1wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+4.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7f33…914ebacked Spirit36c279.98$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$179.591457.1%8 W · 6 L+1.3wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+10.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2da3…f258backed Luminosity40c271.23$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.0870060.1%421 W · 279 L+70.2wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+13.9%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x83c4…3212backed Luminosity39c256.41$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10032461.4%199 W · 125 L+23.2wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+12.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xbbb4…0060backed Luminosity39c256.41$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10017451.7%90 W · 84 L+13.9wins+0.08per pick44cpaid+14.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x327a…3480backed Spirit60c250$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1009750.5%49 W · 48 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xba50…ad0bbacked Luminosity37c250$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.577247.8%369 W · 403 L-22.8wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-7.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0e50…2609backed Spirit60c245.02$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.0161055.9%341 W · 269 L+10.0wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbbdd…cd9dbacked Spirit62c241.94$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.9421462.1%133 W · 81 L-5.0wins-0.02per pick64cpaid-4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb7ab…16d0backed Luminosity57c221.24$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.551,37766.4%914 W · 463 L+77.0wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+7.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6c3f…e6a2backed Luminosity38c215.45$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.876747.8%32 W · 35 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-9.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x09f3…40f4backed Luminosity38c211.48$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.362236.4%8 W · 14 L-3.5wins-0.16per pick52cpaid-33.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xfe8a…23cebacked Luminosity32c208.41$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.232,22347.5%1,056 W · 1,167 L-5.7wins0.00per pick48cpaid-14.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe450…a40abacked Spirit59c203.39$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.39966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick62cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1831…3ff8backed Spirit60c200.21$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.8713649.3%67 W · 69 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-3.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6ed8…7559backed Spirit60c200$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8022150.2%111 W · 110 L+8.0wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+12.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2529…548abacked Luminosity35c182.54$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.313,23651.2%1,657 W · 1,579 L+88.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-6.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x483d…a099backed Spirit63c181.66$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.4226746.4%124 W · 143 L-9.3wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-11.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbbcf…20aebacked Spirit62c180$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.44447.7%21 W · 23 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked Spirit59c177.72$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.642,67247.8%1,277 W · 1,395 L-31.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-10.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd8ef…f7a1backed Luminosity40c172.82$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.5414460.4%87 W · 57 L+7.4wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+9.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2255…65d8backed Spirit59c170.85$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.051127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.4wins-0.13per pick40cpaid-56.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8059…5addbacked Luminosity41c170.1$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.749260.9%56 W · 36 L+11.1wins+0.12per pick49cpaid+15.2%equal weight61+0.09 edge/pick
0x3e69…074bbacked Spirit62c161.29$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.291546.7%7 W · 8 L-2.1wins-0.14per pick61cpaid-24.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xcece…ffeebacked Luminosity38c158$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.0411844.1%52 W · 66 L-4.2wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-11%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xad22…014abacked Spirit61c153.99$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.0666248.6%322 W · 340 L-5.4wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2d90…67b5backed Luminosity40c152.71$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.851747.1%8 W · 9 L-1.6wins-0.10per pick57cpaid-27%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xeba1…838bbacked Spirit61c150$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5810350.5%52 W · 51 L-8.2wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-13%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x72aa…90e0backed Luminosity23c148$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.214,23849.2%2,085 W · 2,153 L+60.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb6c5…20d0backed Spirit62c147.61$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.3461855%340 W · 278 L+11.7wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x66b1…340fbacked Spirit76c135$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.051,16748.2%562 W · 605 L+1.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7bbb…ad2ebacked Spirit50c133.06$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.079142.9%39 W · 52 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc151…2501backed Spirit62c130$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.46555.4%36 W · 29 L-0.2wins0.00per pick56cpaid+2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc51f…5dc6backed Spirit61c126.98$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.5213855.1%76 W · 62 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1c47…2e55backed Spirit40c126.58$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.9524447.1%115 W · 129 L+11.2wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+12.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe3b0…b4d1backed Spirit61c122.95$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.9527050.7%137 W · 133 L+11.9wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+12.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5181…504bbacked Spirit61c122.08$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.613953.8%21 W · 18 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-8.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2e47…bdbfbacked Spirit62c120.93$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.9639469.3%273 W · 121 L+31.6wins+0.08per pick61cpaid+12.8%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x1ed1…fd2abacked Luminosity37c120$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.439338.2%150 W · 243 L-13.0wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-15%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x253f…4253backed Luminosity26c119.79$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$318150.6%41 W · 40 L+3.7wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+8.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x034a…9ddcbacked Spirit67c105$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.6510647.2%50 W · 56 L-13.4wins-0.13per pick60cpaid-27.2%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.