CS2 · resolved market
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-3.5) vs Luminosity (+3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0e780b0c07f106727c248f391f0986e18c1a077a1911de50a80317a2b2ddfde3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Spiritof Spirit, Luminosity
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,060
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,469
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,060 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8cbf…0eb4backed Spirit | 57c | 1,042$594 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$448.24 | 371 | 57.7%214 W · 157 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Luminosity | 42c | 856.13$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356.47 | 619 | 48%297 W · 322 L | -11.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ca…6a8bbacked Spirit | 58c | 700$406 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294 | 752 | 45.5%342 W · 410 L | -21.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c2…9b8dbacked Luminosity | 40c | 682.67$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.07 | 471 | 47.3%223 W · 248 L | +10.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x051c…ca3fbacked Spirit | 60c | 666$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.4 | 358 | 47.5%170 W · 188 L | -13.4wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29b5…cc6cbacked Spirit | 57c | 537.4$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.69 | 5,050 | 55.1%2,781 W · 2,269 L | +117.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6c4…8930backed Luminosity | 40c | 495$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198 | 63 | 38.1%24 W · 39 L | -4.8wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x891a…f778backed Luminosity | 43c | 367.43$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.99 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e7c…164dbacked Luminosity | 43c | 362$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.66 | 349 | 43%150 W · 199 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffca…0b64backed Luminosity | 44c | 300$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 521 | 50.3%262 W · 259 L | -6.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c2f…9765backed Spirit | 58c | 280.02$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.61 | 69 | 60.9%42 W · 27 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6ee…0e41backed Luminosity | 41c | 200$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 1,038 | 39.9%414 W · 624 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca7c…e994backed Luminosity | 43c | 176.32$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.82 | 513 | 48.3%248 W · 265 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65fa…4c6abacked Spirit | 60c | 167.1$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.1 | 115 | 64.3%74 W · 41 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa72a…5685backed Luminosity | 40c | 166.5$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.6 | 312 | 41.3%129 W · 183 L | -14.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c5c…1cf7backed Luminosity | 43c | 156$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.08 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +4.1wins | +0.18per pick | 45cpaid | +46.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3881…804ebacked Luminosity | 42c | 150$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 1,496 | 51.5%771 W · 725 L | -7.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfdd…e70ebacked Luminosity | 42c | 75$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 143 | 35%50 W · 93 L | -13.4wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -26%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1ed1…fd2abacked Spirit | 59c | 70$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.7 | 393 | 38.2%150 W · 243 L | -13.0wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf56…22fdbacked Spirit | 59c | 66.44$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.24 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x091a…8287backed Luminosity | 42c | 62.79$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.37 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -3.3wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -20%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc1…3f1cbacked Luminosity | 43c | 52.91$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.75 | 40 | 30%12 W · 28 L | -7.1wins | -0.18per pick | 48cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc34b…9296backed Spirit | 58c | 44.8$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.82 | 2,009 | 53.9%1,082 W · 927 L | +7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb3e…db66backed Luminosity | 40c | 40.87$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.35 | 51 | 37.3%19 W · 32 L | -5.0wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Spirit | 59c | 40.34$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.54 | 694 | 45%312 W · 382 L | -24.7wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa2…6df9backed Luminosity | 42c | 37$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.54 | 162 | 45.7%74 W · 88 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30da…3e7abacked Luminosity | 43c | 37$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.91 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | +3.6wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe315…3911backed Luminosity | 41c | 30.94$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.59 | 84 | 46.4%39 W · 45 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4cd…c041backed Luminosity | 41c | 26.02$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 68 | 42.6%29 W · 39 L | -5.8wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-3.5) vs Luminosity (+3.5)this page
- Counter-Strike: Luminosity vs Spirit (BO3) - Esports World Cup Group ASpirit won
- Counter-Strike: Luminosity vs Spirit - Map 1 WinnerSpirit won
- Counter-Strike: Luminosity vs Spirit - Map 2 WinnerSpirit won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
- Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-3.5) vs Luminosity (+3.5)Spirit won
- Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Luminosity (+1.5)Spirit won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.