CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: Luminosity vs Spirit (BO3) - Esports World Cup Group A

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5782644988bd9d97af2ac3cf97190380f33afb88239525351be17be16d22878c

Rebuilt 13 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Spiritof Luminosity, Spirit
Resolved: Aug 13, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: CS2every record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $189,521
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $204,280

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $189,521 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 85 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in CS2
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x1610…ae49backed Luminosity	7c	29,261$2,013 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,012.57	140	47.9%67 W · 73 L	+6.7wins	+0.05per pick	43cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0a63…fc03backed Luminosity	13c	15,000$1,880 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,880	423	41.8%177 W · 246 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	42cpaid	+1.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Luminosity	9c	10,296$972 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$972.05	1,431	39%558 W · 873 L	-41.8wins	-0.03per pick	42cpaid	-29%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5135…7217backed Luminosity	12c	8,966$1,108 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,108.33	1,652	52.9%874 W · 778 L	+60.8wins	+0.04per pick	49cpaid	+7.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa0f2…1848backed Luminosity	16c	7,214$1,179 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,179.49	29	48.3%14 W · 15 L	-1.1wins	-0.04per pick	52cpaid	-23.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7645…3117backed Luminosity	12c	6,000$720 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$720	720	46.1%332 W · 388 L	-2.6wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdcaf…e271backed Luminosity	13c	5,000$650 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$650	379	46.4%176 W · 203 L	-3.2wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x994e…6136backed Luminosity	12c	3,487$418 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$418.4	37	51.4%19 W · 18 L	-1.9wins	-0.05per pick	57cpaid	-19.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfd14…2267backed Luminosity	12c	2,780$334 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$333.6	5,876	37.7%2,213 W · 3,663 L	+71.9wins	+0.01per pick	36cpaid	+0.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x80ba…2e78backed Luminosity	11c	2,582$284 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$284.06	332	32.2%107 W · 225 L	-0.8wins	0.00per pick	32cpaid	+8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe295…d437backed Luminosity	7c	2,455$179 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$179.13	25	48%12 W · 13 L	+0.9wins	+0.04per pick	44cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed Luminosity	11c	2,329$264 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$264.21	2,092	41.6%871 W · 1,221 L	-50.8wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	-16.5%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Luminosity	12c	2,234$257 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$257.06	123	46.3%57 W · 66 L	-4.8wins	-0.04per pick	50cpaid	-12.7%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed Luminosity	11c	1,839$202 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$202.29	16	18.8%3 W · 13 L	-1.7wins	-0.11per pick	30cpaid	+0.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9e3e…f882backed Luminosity	4c	1,715$72 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$71.93	726	45.6%331 W · 395 L	-21.5wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-17.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4299…10ccbacked Luminosity	10c	1,359$134 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$134.38	18	44.4%8 W · 10 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	-22.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x35c8…ce5cbacked Luminosity	13c	1,278$163 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$163.35	108	37%40 W · 68 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	37cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8056…b64dbacked Luminosity	14c	1,264$177 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$177	1,629	44.8%730 W · 899 L	+4.7wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked Luminosity	11c	1,211$139 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$138.69	2,672	47.8%1,277 W · 1,395 L	-31.8wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-10.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd619…c461backed Luminosity	12c	1,200$140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$140	318	43.1%137 W · 181 L	+5.1wins	+0.02per pick	41cpaid	+5.6%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe361…ae44backed Luminosity	11c	1,200$132 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$132	253	45.8%116 W · 137 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-4.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x53ab…65aabacked Luminosity	12c	1,111$133 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$133.32	1,146	49.4%566 W · 580 L	+17.0wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+4.7%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8d71…a961backed Luminosity	11c	1,081$119 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$118.91	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	+0.8wins	+0.12per pick	31cpaid	+113.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x32ee…83b0backed Luminosity	18c	953.4$171 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$170.52	47	40.4%19 W · 28 L	-4.3wins	-0.09per pick	50cpaid	-19.1%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8f41…260ebacked Luminosity	12c	900$108 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$108	183	50.8%93 W · 90 L	-5.4wins	-0.03per pick	54cpaid	-10.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc670…b781backed Luminosity	13c	836.69$109 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$108.77	151	45.7%69 W · 82 L	+4.1wins	+0.03per pick	43cpaid	+20.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x059d…caf8backed Luminosity	13c	809.03$106 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$105.72	113	48.7%55 W · 58 L	-4.1wins	-0.04per pick	52cpaid	-7.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x98a5…d074backed Luminosity	1c	800$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.5	96	45.8%44 W · 52 L	+9.1wins	+0.09per pick	36cpaid	+28%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xcc77…c035backed Luminosity	5c	772.36$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.62	12	33.3%4 W · 8 L	-0.6wins	-0.05per pick	38cpaid	-26.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc865…2f6ebacked Luminosity	12c	750$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90	59	27.1%16 W · 43 L	-5.1wins	-0.09per pick	36cpaid	-35.5%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x146c…b807backed Luminosity	14c	714.29$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	402	48.8%196 W · 206 L	-11.5wins	-0.03per pick	52cpaid	-12.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1025…7e11backed Luminosity	14c	699.99$95 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$95	577	40.4%233 W · 344 L	+1.4wins	0.00per pick	40cpaid	-3.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb9c5…73cbbacked Luminosity	15c	688.73$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$102	45	28.9%13 W · 32 L	+1.4wins	+0.03per pick	26cpaid	+13.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfc38…c3b4backed Luminosity	7c	676.93$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.31	339	50.7%172 W · 167 L	+7.1wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+9.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked Luminosity	12c	662.52$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$79.5	1,060	49%519 W · 541 L	+37.6wins	+0.04per pick	45cpaid	-10.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc818…1da3backed Luminosity	7c	638.12$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.53	89	25.8%23 W · 66 L	-7.6wins	-0.09per pick	34cpaid	-44.8%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0xeebb…0b96backed Luminosity	4c	625$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	362	39.2%142 W · 220 L	+0.9wins	0.00per pick	39cpaid	+0.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xadef…8fffbacked Luminosity	5c	599.99$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.9	64	37.5%24 W · 40 L	-1.4wins	-0.02per pick	40cpaid	-20.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Luminosity	12c	576.68$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69.54	2,645	51.9%1,372 W · 1,273 L	+21.0wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	-2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfbc6…9092backed Luminosity	6c	504.72$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	37	29.7%11 W · 26 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	30cpaid	-5.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xce08…510bbacked Luminosity	13c	500$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65	105	38.1%40 W · 65 L	-8.8wins	-0.08per pick	46cpaid	-21.8%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xcb84…7cd9backed Luminosity	12c	500$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	10	20%2 W · 8 L	-2.0wins	-0.20per pick	40cpaid	-68.6%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xf8b8…ef79backed Luminosity	4c	496.26$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.85	18	16.7%3 W · 15 L	-1.5wins	-0.08per pick	25cpaid	+6.7%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc0fd…a0a9backed Luminosity	5c	485.02$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.25	21	38.1%8 W · 13 L	+0.6wins	+0.03per pick	35cpaid	+9.6%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x089c…33dabacked Luminosity	14c	417$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.35	224	55.8%125 W · 99 L	+6.7wins	+0.03per pick	53cpaid	+2.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9315…afc1backed Luminosity	12c	401.69$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x83bd…3f07backed Luminosity	5c	400$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	45	28.9%13 W · 32 L	+1.4wins	+0.03per pick	26cpaid	+36.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x034a…9ddcbacked Luminosity	5c	400$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	106	47.2%50 W · 56 L	-13.4wins	-0.13per pick	60cpaid	-27.2%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked Luminosity	19c	389.57$73 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72.74	5,034	37.2%1,874 W · 3,160 L	-260.4wins	-0.05per pick	42cpaid	-32.6%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9b31…b0debacked Luminosity	14c	378.26$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.57	42	21.4%9 W · 33 L	-0.9wins	-0.02per pick	24cpaid	+2.7%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa005…abb1backed Luminosity	13c	352.41$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.09	191	50.3%96 W · 95 L	-6.4wins	-0.03per pick	54cpaid	-9.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf404…daaabacked Luminosity	10c	338$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.56	109	33%36 W · 73 L	-9.9wins	-0.09per pick	42cpaid	-26.3%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3c15…45a0backed Luminosity	19c	300$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.7	141	41.8%59 W · 82 L	-5.2wins	-0.04per pick	46cpaid	-13.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb775…36f5backed Luminosity	17c	298.39$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	229	56.8%130 W · 99 L	+9.7wins	+0.04per pick	53cpaid	+14.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc8b4…5e1cbacked Luminosity	7c	280.86$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.82	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5532…d43cbacked Luminosity	14c	280$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.2	19	26.3%5 W · 14 L	-1.0wins	-0.05per pick	32cpaid	+2.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4d14…36fdbacked Luminosity	7c	279.24$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	25	36%9 W · 16 L	-1.1wins	-0.04per pick	40cpaid	-30.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf2c3…f821backed Luminosity	14c	241.5$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.81	23	65.2%15 W · 8 L	+2.7wins	+0.12per pick	53cpaid	+28.9%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xeb3e…db66backed Luminosity	16c	239.41$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.76	51	37.3%19 W · 32 L	-5.0wins	-0.10per pick	47cpaid	-29.3%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Luminosity	9c	234$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.91	2,365	45.4%1,074 W · 1,291 L	-58.3wins	-0.02per pick	48cpaid	-16.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe853…ecf7backed Luminosity	8c	222.7$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.9	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-1.1wins	-0.28per pick	28cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x37bd…ed2abacked Luminosity	19c	216.86$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42	63	44.4%28 W · 35 L	-1.9wins	-0.03per pick	47cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6cd3…226ebacked Luminosity	12c	210$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.68	384	21.9%84 W · 300 L	-44.9wins	-0.12per pick	34cpaid	-48.1%equal weight	38-0.11 edge/pick
0xffca…0b64backed Luminosity	13c	200$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	521	50.3%262 W · 259 L	-6.4wins	-0.01per pick	52cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x70ed…73f6backed Luminosity	8c	200$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	6	50%3 W · 3 L	+1.6wins	+0.27per pick	23cpaid	+309.7%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x379c…84fabacked Luminosity	13c	200$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26	60	41.7%25 W · 35 L	+4.3wins	+0.07per pick	35cpaid	+14.6%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9fc8…f527backed Luminosity	12c	200$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	492	26%128 W · 364 L	-45.2wins	-0.09per pick	35cpaid	-30.8%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0xfb0c…8c72backed Luminosity	13c	198.5$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.81	378	48.1%182 W · 196 L	+3.9wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfb8e…3dc3backed Luminosity	13c	192.31$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	106	26.4%28 W · 78 L	-6.5wins	-0.06per pick	33cpaid	-21%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8059…5addbacked Luminosity	14c	176.86$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.76	92	60.9%56 W · 36 L	+11.1wins	+0.12per pick	49cpaid	+15.2%equal weight	61+0.09 edge/pick
0x5f8e…21b7backed Luminosity	13c	163.11$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.97	162	50%81 W · 81 L	+3.9wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	-5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x314f…e463backed Luminosity	14c	161.5$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.18	24	54.2%13 W · 11 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	55cpaid	-10.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a7e…9dc6backed Luminosity	12c	152$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.24	208	54.8%114 W · 94 L	+10.9wins	+0.05per pick	50cpaid	+16.8%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5c6d…ab76backed Luminosity	11c	144$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.43	347	50.1%174 W · 173 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-2.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf6ee…0e41backed Luminosity	12c	135.75$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.29	1,041	39.9%415 W · 626 L	+20.5wins	+0.02per pick	38cpaid	+5.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1612…9dedbacked Luminosity	13c	134$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.42	265	50.6%134 W · 131 L	-6.0wins	-0.02per pick	53cpaid	-7.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfafc…c7a2backed Luminosity	12c	125$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	42	26.2%11 W · 31 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	26cpaid	-17%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x66c0…5fc2backed Luminosity	13c	115.38$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	191	50.8%97 W · 94 L	-5.0wins	-0.03per pick	53cpaid	-6.4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4857…600ebacked Luminosity	13c	107.69$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	23	47.8%11 W · 12 L	-1.8wins	-0.08per pick	56cpaid	-21.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe57f…ad35backed Luminosity	14c	107.14$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.14per pick	14cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xac68…f1fcbacked Luminosity	13c	100$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	165	56.4%93 W · 72 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	56cpaid	+4.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x399d…bf83backed Luminosity	13c	100$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	44	56.8%25 W · 19 L	+7.8wins	+0.18per pick	39cpaid	+36.7%equal weight	63+0.11 edge/pick
0x0fd7…717dbacked Luminosity	14c	100$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	12	16.7%2 W · 10 L	-0.9wins	-0.07per pick	24cpaid	-27%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5151…645cbacked Luminosity	13c	77$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.01	80	31.3%25 W · 55 L	-5.4wins	-0.07per pick	38cpaid	-20.8%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x104b…e9cebacked Spirit	80c	24.84$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4.97	186	80.6%150 W · 36 L	+12.2wins	+0.07per pick	74cpaid	+8.2%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Counter-Strike: Luminosity vs Spirit (BO3) - Esports World Cup Group Athis page
Counter-Strike: Luminosity vs Spirit - Map 1 WinnerSpirit won
Counter-Strike: Luminosity vs Spirit - Map 2 WinnerSpirit won
Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-3.5) vs Luminosity (+3.5)Spirit won
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-3.5) vs Luminosity (+3.5)Spirit won
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Luminosity (+1.5)Spirit won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Counter-Strike: Luminosity vs Spirit (BO3) - Esports World Cup Group A

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event