TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will the Progress Party (FrP) win 22% or more of vote in Norwegian election?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$133,903
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$136,679

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $133,903 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 111 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x629b…995abacked No56c63,041$35,164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35,163.5543243.1%186 W · 246 L+29.2wins+0.07per pick36cpaid-7.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x551e…b0e0backed Yes43c30,787$13,219 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,568.296439.1%25 W · 39 L+3.9wins+0.06per pick33cpaid-9.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7678…e5f0backed Yes46c29,165$13,346 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,818.464623.9%11 W · 35 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick25cpaid-31.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x649f…993ebacked Yes45c19,931$8,876 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,055.19714.3%1 W · 6 L-2.2wins-0.31per pick46cpaid-67.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x414b…0d3fbacked No55c6,708$3,670 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,670.3413334.6%46 W · 87 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick33cpaid+6.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf2f6…5817backed No56c5,965$3,350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,349.8725337.2%94 W · 159 L+8.0wins+0.03per pick34cpaid-3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x12d6…f2a8backed Yes41c5,000$2,070 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,9301338.5%5 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-22.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb412…3026backed No56c4,515$2,515 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,515.331435.7%5 W · 9 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick33cpaid-14%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf1f9…1245backed No56c3,819$2,149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,149.2518036.7%66 W · 114 L-0.5wins0.00per pick37cpaid+15.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf454…7bcbbacked No53c2,782$1,473 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,473.41145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.07per pick38cpaid+16%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0113…6f26backed No55c2,767$1,530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5303525.7%9 W · 26 L-4.6wins-0.13per pick39cpaid-48.3%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xd5ec…7b2ebacked Yes45c2,500$1,115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,384.991957.9%11 W · 8 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+1.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0401…2f0ebacked Yes46c1,675$770 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$905.081050%5 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+26.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x526e…3bd0backed No60c1,462$873 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$873.178854.5%48 W · 40 L-3.6wins-0.04per pick59cpaid-7.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2cde…5b98backed No5c1,400$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$707225%18 W · 54 L+9.7wins+0.14per pick11cpaid+262.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xf797…0bf2backed No56c1,200$668 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$667.999627.1%26 W · 70 L-7.0wins-0.07per pick34cpaid-29.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6c69…9e30backed No56c1,100$617 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6174531.1%14 W · 31 L-0.1wins0.00per pick31cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca42…d480backed Yes49c1,015$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$514.72366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.22per pick44cpaid+11.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x57ab…a5e5backed Yes44c912.4$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$512.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+128.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9592…a85bbacked No57c900$513 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51311428.9%33 W · 81 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick27cpaid+70.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ac8…77cdbacked No49c843.13$409 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$408.9930233.8%102 W · 200 L+19.2wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+27.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb76e…60a0backed Yes47c794.74$374 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$421.21520%1 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick30cpaid-57.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc6a8…6721backed Yes43c791.4$340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$451.4450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5028…91c5backed Yes46c746$339 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$406.535117.6%9 W · 42 L-3.5wins-0.07per pick24cpaid-54.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa4b3…87b8backed Yes61c743.45$456 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$287.3110331.1%32 W · 71 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick29cpaid-32.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x502b…a1d5backed Yes42c699.99$294 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4064847.9%23 W · 25 L+5.4wins+0.11per pick37cpaid+18.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0d8e…1f37backed Yes42c676.68$283 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$393.74250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.25per pick25cpaid+19.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6640…2202backed No55c623.8$341 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$341.288456%47 W · 37 L+9.4wins+0.11per pick45cpaid+24.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No58c546.62$319 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$319.1688448.5%429 W · 455 L-2.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x39d0…4fe8backed No35c530$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187.411454.4%62 W · 52 L+5.8wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+11.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf8fc…5e1abacked No4c519.38$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2032…d577backed No58c500$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2909750.5%49 W · 48 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe72…cb10backed No54c428.56$232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$232.016030%18 W · 42 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick32cpaid+22.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfa2d…dbcbbacked No55c400$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.13per pick42cpaid-46.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x61c7…82cebacked No52c398.42$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207.582416.7%4 W · 20 L-2.1wins-0.09per pick25cpaid-47.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x72ad…2b6bbacked Yes49c398.08$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$203.081100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+104.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x629c…6c01backed No56c353.88$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.632326.1%6 W · 17 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick29cpaid+21.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3474…0571backed No57c347.19$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.0220034%68 W · 132 L+9.0wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+13.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes44c328.36$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.0857636.3%209 W · 367 L-27.2wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-28.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x002d…2561backed Yes44c300$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1684231%13 W · 29 L-2.0wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-38.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc981…a75dbacked Yes47c300$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.265715.8%9 W · 48 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-46.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x59ae…6264backed Yes43c299.99$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$171580%4 W · 1 L+1.9wins+0.38per pick42cpaid+108.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa3e9…7dcbbacked Yes37c297.36$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$187.39366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.19per pick48cpaid+34.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x82c9…af3fbacked Yes46c293.48$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.481100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+117.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2255…65d8backed Yes33c284.16$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$191.39333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick24cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x18f6…02c4backed No56c275$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.75757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5e38…a1dbbacked Yes46c262.28$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.283033.3%10 W · 20 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick29cpaid+62.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b44…63fbbacked No20c252.94$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.7537117.8%66 W · 305 L-18.9wins-0.05per pick23cpaid-32.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5949…d9a5backed Yes40c251.62$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.62425%1 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick13cpaid-37.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x77b6…f279backed No54c251.59$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.883554.3%19 W · 16 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-16.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x2bcd…cbfbbacked Yes48c249.21$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.218737.9%33 W · 54 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick41cpaid+2.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xba99…3fa1backed Yes49c249.03$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.071100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+104.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9cf6…559dbacked No49c239$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.8331534%107 W · 208 L+7.7wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-4.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xffb7…0ed4backed Yes49c230.66$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.33250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick60cpaid+1.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3ab2…205dbacked Yes45c222.22$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.221100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+122.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaf22…8a2dbacked No67c210.15$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.5410%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.67per pick67cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5f43…65fdbacked No55c207.99$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.820325.6%52 W · 151 L-0.6wins0.00per pick26cpaid+32.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7a80…2ce6backed Yes47c201.52$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.82616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick15cpaid-64.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe094…fe93backed No56c200$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.75450%2 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick57cpaid+0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x039b…86f7backed Yes54c200$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$921100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7250…5468backed No47c196.29$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.274641.3%19 W · 27 L-2.5wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-36.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x196f…538fbacked Yes52c188.02$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.25333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-35.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x270a…c70ebacked Yes40c180.75$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.45250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.26per pick24cpaid+25%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfa74…562cbacked Yes49c180.27$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.541100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+105.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc4ab…7e31backed Yes50c158.75$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.1837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.10per pick28cpaid-22.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7d61…fba4backed Yes39c158$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.461100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.61per pick39cpaid+156.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x95d9…ab03backed Yes46c150$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick27cpaid-27.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb732…6b47backed Yes71c145.91$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.79333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-53.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes53c144.24$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.331,02228%286 W · 736 L+1.6wins0.00per pick28cpaid-34.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2a8f…d83fbacked Yes42c140$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.39333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick19cpaid-20.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7d37…a680backed Yes47c138.24$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.245945.8%27 W · 32 L+0.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0e32…535bbacked Yes41c131$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.6228430.3%86 W · 198 L+0.8wins0.00per pick30cpaid-29.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xccf1…20ccbacked Yes40c125$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7511331%35 W · 78 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick29cpaid-2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8db4…9c07backed Yes50c120$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.42846.4%13 W · 15 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-13.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x2853…3482backed No60c100$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$601233.3%4 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-37.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1237…06afbacked No64c100$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$642729.6%8 W · 19 L-4.4wins-0.16per pick46cpaid-52.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x0892…48d8backed Yes42c100$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$581764.7%11 W · 6 L+2.5wins+0.15per pick50cpaid+12.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x501d…8fe8backed Yes42c100$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$581100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.58per pick42cpaid+138.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1d6d…f2b4backed Yes48c99.99$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$522347.8%11 W · 12 L+2.7wins+0.12per pick36cpaid+100.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x895f…627dbacked Yes46c90.96$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.122100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+109.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd6f4…ef6abacked Yes47c90$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.7933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-43.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf518…26b4backed Yes52c73.55$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.53666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.13per pick54cpaid+11.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1dfa…b4e9backed Yes56c71.43$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.43560%3 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+8.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8aa6…add3backed No58c69.08$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x55f6…730ebacked Yes37c68.27$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.27333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick24cpaid-9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc4ba…68fabacked No60c68$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.921145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2f0d…b6febacked No60c60.13$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.0820%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x44cb…e3d8backed Yes53c56.6$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8baa…7781backed Yes65c52.31$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.31475%3 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.19per pick56cpaid+23.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcf36…94e8backed Yes43c50$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.51485.7%12 W · 2 L+4.2wins+0.30per pick56cpaid+55.2%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xd72b…e2ebbacked Yes40c50$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$301100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+150%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7363…ca48backed Yes41c48.78$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.78250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.28per pick22cpaid+22%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe4ca…1383backed Yes42c47.61$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.6144921.2%95 W · 354 L-21.7wins-0.05per pick26cpaid-24.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7963…5c7bbacked Yes54c46.14$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.443100%3 W · 0 L+1.8wins+0.61per pick39cpaid+535.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x4021…956abacked Yes45c44.44$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.442100%2 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.59per pick41cpaid+146.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1d2a…1600backed Yes42c43.19$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.05250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.22per pick28cpaid+19%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0c76…e521backed Yes40c42.5$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.5250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.23per pick27cpaid+25%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xffc6…ccfcbacked Yes47c41.7$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.11100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+112.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xba4c…9dc3backed No52c40$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.8425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick29cpaid+108.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3c7a…45bdbacked Yes40c37.5$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.5785.7%6 W · 1 L+2.0wins+0.29per pick57cpaid+118.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.