TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Pistons vs. Grizzlies

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Pistonsof Pistons, Grizzlies
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,536,228
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,544,286

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,536,228 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 640 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3657…6b14backed Pistons64c1,677,544$1,072,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$605,043.942665.4%17 W · 9 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick61cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb744…5210backed Grizzlies36c1,361,896$490,291 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$490,291.0715443.5%67 W · 87 L+0.4wins0.00per pick43cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x900c…1d7abacked Grizzlies36c110,337$39,799 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39,798.9871052.1%370 W · 340 L+11.9wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x83b9…6124backed Grizzlies36c67,099$24,223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24,223.4136148.5%175 W · 186 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3987…259ebacked Pistons62c60,814$37,553 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23,261.368022.5%18 W · 62 L-10.0wins-0.12per pick35cpaid-49.4%equal weight39-0.09 edge/pick
0x75c4…4cd0backed Pistons63c59,056$37,086 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21,969.362147.6%10 W · 11 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-21.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8652…3ce4backed Grizzlies0c52,216$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.2260%0 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbad…9c95backed Pistons64c50,000$32,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,0006352.4%33 W · 30 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed Grizzlies38c41,283$15,487 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,487.371,02450.8%520 W · 504 L+18.6wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5139…a8dbbacked Grizzlies36c35,082$12,649 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,648.5169852%363 W · 335 L+10.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9e2f…ec47backed Grizzlies38c35,000$13,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,249.9174748.5%362 W · 385 L+8.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Grizzlies35c30,066$10,652 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,652.132,29851.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L+65.4wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4335…fc2fbacked Grizzlies38c30,000$11,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,40017354.3%94 W · 79 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2ada…2f28backed Grizzlies0c25,033$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.0364517.1%110 W · 535 L-11.9wins-0.02per pick19cpaid-44.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd8f2…ace5backed Grizzlies36c22,100$7,956 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,9561233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-35.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbc10…3f05backed Grizzlies37c20,000$7,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,4009650%48 W · 48 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x9267…0f9abacked Grizzlies38c19,250$7,315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,314.8859653.4%318 W · 278 L+4.3wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2129…4222backed Pistons73c18,894$13,716 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,177.8447448.7%231 W · 243 L-0.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid+5.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x220c…43c8backed Pistons62c18,750$11,625 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,1257149.3%35 W · 36 L-0.1wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc4c8…fed1backed Grizzlies37c18,750$6,938 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,937.53748.6%18 W · 19 L+2.8wins+0.07per pick41cpaid-3.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb083…b3f0backed Grizzlies38c18,444$7,042 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,041.9220248%97 W · 105 L-8.1wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-14%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3151…0977backed Grizzlies38c17,889$6,798 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,797.8219249.5%95 W · 97 L+0.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-13.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x06c0…e618backed Grizzlies38c16,142$6,134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,13413455.2%74 W · 60 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e3a…4033backed Pistons65c15,385$10,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,384.6234062.1%211 W · 129 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc2a3…c3a6backed Pistons62c13,000$8,060 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,9403663.9%23 W · 13 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick61cpaid+15.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf7bd…2a37backed Pistons20c12,800$2,560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,2404037.5%15 W · 25 L+7.6wins+0.19per pick19cpaid+241.1%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xf686…d7c5backed Grizzlies80c12,800$10,240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,24020%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x86a3…33dbbacked Pistons65c12,278$7,948 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,329.974045%18 W · 22 L-2.4wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-18.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4337…8882backed Pistons62c11,111$6,889 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,222.1815952.2%83 W · 76 L+9.2wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+12.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x540c…a634backed Pistons65c10,472$6,807 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,665.319445.7%43 W · 51 L-5.5wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-14.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1d85…228ebacked Grizzlies36c10,358$3,729 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,7297142.3%30 W · 41 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-13.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb377…f621backed Grizzlies36c10,000$3,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,6004040%16 W · 24 L-2.4wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-6.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcacf…35ffbacked Grizzlies1c9,169$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.917211%7 W · 714 L-2.6wins0.00per pick1cpaid-32.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4231…f63ebacked Grizzlies37c8,911$3,270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,269.8912160.3%73 W · 48 L+10.3wins+0.09per pick52cpaid+19.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xccec…1dfcbacked Grizzlies36c8,260$2,974 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,973.65152.9%27 W · 24 L+2.5wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+3.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x066e…ceb2backed Grizzlies30c8,006$2,407 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,407.345339.6%21 W · 32 L+2.2wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+0.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbce9…03e9backed Grizzlies0c7,770$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.28820%0 W · 882 L-6.7wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Grizzlies36c7,604$2,763 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,762.979,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Grizzlies17c7,442$1,293 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,292.988,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Grizzlies9c6,560$580 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$580.021,38439.4%545 W · 839 L+4.8wins0.00per pick39cpaid-21.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc996…bb65backed Grizzlies10c6,560$684 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$683.8247144.2%208 W · 263 L-10.1wins-0.02per pick46cpaid+0.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Grizzlies37c6,035$2,249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,249.322,26543.4%982 W · 1,283 L-26.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3850…c4b4backed Grizzlies32c6,007$1,922 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,922.2712334.1%42 W · 81 L-3.1wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-13.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x977a…f2cabacked Grizzlies0c6,000$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151,2772.3%29 W · 1,248 L-11.7wins-0.01per pick3cpaid-84%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x75fc…a53abacked Grizzlies38c6,000$2,280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,280850%4 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7bf1…6d22backed Pistons63c6,000$3,780 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,220837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.16per pick54cpaid-42.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcb43…3c74backed Pistons63c6,000$3,750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,249.9747748.8%233 W · 244 L+1.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb7f5…c669backed Grizzlies38c5,899$2,242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,241.5566250.8%336 W · 326 L+15.7wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0eb3…f766backed Grizzlies37c5,629$2,104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,103.6448944.2%216 W · 273 L-12.3wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-9.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x191d…99abbacked Grizzlies38c5,526$2,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,10010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2699…29f6backed Grizzlies37c5,353$1,954 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,954.184553.3%24 W · 21 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa4d3…c08abacked Grizzlies38c5,211$1,980 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,98010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa576…89a4backed Pistons64c5,000$3,187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,812.972748.1%13 W · 14 L+3.2wins+0.12per pick36cpaid+23.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xcb91…11f7backed Grizzlies36c4,972$1,790 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,790333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-39.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x64b5…7543backed Grizzlies37c4,372$1,618 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,617.7535235.8%126 W · 226 L+5.1wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+10.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x988d…9899backed Grizzlies36c4,177$1,504 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,503.64057.5%23 W · 17 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+6.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x519d…37a1backed Grizzlies0c4,050$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.57502%15 W · 735 L-3.2wins0.00per pick2cpaid-63.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f7a…db40backed Pistons62c4,000$2,480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,52018047.8%86 W · 94 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8366…21ebbacked Pistons63c3,971$2,502 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,469.275352.8%28 W · 25 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x057a…3bacbacked Grizzlies22c3,857$857 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$857.1326038.1%99 W · 161 L-9.3wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-24%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5f84…7650backed Pistons62c3,797$2,354 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,442.9110062%62 W · 38 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick64cpaid-6.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4d45…9054backed Grizzlies36c3,773$1,369 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,368.8830053.3%160 W · 140 L+9.2wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+7.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd6f4…0566backed Grizzlies27c3,513$937 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$937.1485344%375 W · 478 L+1.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid-15.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb58…86a4backed Grizzlies36c3,426$1,233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,233.524151.9%125 W · 116 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+4.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd2b2…d101backed Pistons64c3,125$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,12516251.9%84 W · 78 L+0.6wins0.00per pick51cpaid+1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8511…4a6bbacked Grizzlies36c3,120$1,123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,123.230351.8%157 W · 146 L+4.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x90ba…63f3backed Grizzlies38c3,050$1,159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,1591,78228%499 W · 1,283 L+11.5wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c1c…a0a4backed Pistons63c3,024$1,899 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,125.147739%30 W · 47 L-5.6wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-23.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa710…4173backed Grizzlies36c3,000$1,080 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0804035%14 W · 26 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-15.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeb22…808abacked Grizzlies15c3,000$440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44095641.7%399 W · 557 L+1.6wins0.00per pick42cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x56fe…74dbbacked Grizzlies36c2,908$1,047 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0473429.4%10 W · 24 L-4.3wins-0.13per pick42cpaid-24.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe648…b79abacked Grizzlies36c2,681$965 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96525554.1%138 W · 117 L-8.3wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-8.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2bc7…e411backed Grizzlies38c2,500$950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$949.999855.1%54 W · 44 L+5.3wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+14.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xec8b…152bbacked Grizzlies36c2,381$863 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$862.9115945.9%73 W · 86 L-4.8wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-2.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6239…c24fbacked Grizzlies38c2,296$872 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$872.4295049.4%469 W · 481 L+10.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Grizzlies7c2,270$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.823,34243.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L+81.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked Grizzlies20c2,250$455 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$454.7281529.4%240 W · 575 L-37.0wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-43%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3a7a…15a4backed Pistons68c2,211$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$711.431044.8%139 W · 171 L+1.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfadc…472ebacked Grizzlies36c2,150$774 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7742777.8%21 W · 6 L+5.1wins+0.19per pick59cpaid+38.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xe403…3d50backed Grizzlies36c2,001$724 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$723.7254747.5%260 W · 287 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9def…d1a5backed Pistons64c2,000$1,280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7209649%47 W · 49 L+4.5wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4538…305fbacked Grizzlies39c1,936$755 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$755250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+11.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b39…a565backed Pistons62c1,934$1,199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$735.05366.7%2 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick65cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Grizzlies37c1,903$704 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$703.961,82052.1%948 W · 872 L+48.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Grizzlies27c1,874$508 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$507.641,40940.2%567 W · 842 L-40.5wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-23.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9c57…8062backed Grizzlies40c1,825$730 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$730333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-25.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbdca…5a2cbacked Pistons62c1,815$1,122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$693.2250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-19.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Grizzlies29c1,776$516 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$515.51,34129.9%401 W · 940 L-53.8wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-35.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0a7e…fce4backed Grizzlies35c1,700$602 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$601.9961835.4%219 W · 399 L+7.8wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+6.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b8e…5c3cbacked Pistons62c1,641$1,019 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$621.644459.7%265 W · 179 L+12.4wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8717…49a8backed Grizzlies37c1,620$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60035651.1%182 W · 174 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+6.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Grizzlies16c1,615$261 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$260.881,19032%381 W · 809 L-58.1wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-34.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x60cd…a1b6backed Pistons64c1,609$1,030 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$579.388251.2%42 W · 40 L+4.3wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+12.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2515…65e8backed Grizzlies36c1,590$572 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$572.3862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+7.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe9be…a7edbacked Pistons65c1,589$1,033 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$556.23450%2 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-9.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8d5d…e74bbacked Pistons62c1,557$965 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$591.673100%3 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdd19…ed2fbacked Grizzlies39c1,551$605 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60520%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x15d5…ef7bbacked Grizzlies36c1,400$504 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5041,19838.8%465 W · 733 L+11.6wins+0.01per pick38cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0154…793bbacked Grizzlies7c1,400$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.12per pick26cpaid-50.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5116…58c4backed Grizzlies22c1,370$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30076850.3%386 W · 382 L-5.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.