NBA · resolved market
Spread: Pistons (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa806836e2e6eae894d2fe5dd16d8cee22eeed0ec0fe19a9834d9f7d752157b15
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Pistonsof Pistons, Grizzlies
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $298,910
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $298,325
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $298,910 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x145c…43bcbacked Pistons | 53c | 271,013$144,518 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126,494.62 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.4wins | +0.27per pick | 51cpaid | +51.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Grizzlies | 47c | 50,579$23,772 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23,772.31 | 418 | 48.3%202 W · 216 L | -7.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4991…5ecdbacked Grizzlies | 47c | 47,796$22,681 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22,680.78 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -3.6wins | -0.14per pick | 41cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked Grizzlies | 46c | 42,337$19,625 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,625.19 | 668 | 53.4%357 W · 311 L | +22.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb083…b3f0backed Grizzlies | 46c | 26,611$12,370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,369.93 | 202 | 48%97 W · 105 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -14%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Grizzlies | 47c | 24,482$11,577 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,577.16 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Grizzlies | 47c | 20,492$9,588 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,587.72 | 1,139 | 48.3%550 W · 589 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb6…3009backed Grizzlies | 46c | 20,000$9,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,199.99 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | -3.8wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Grizzlies | 46c | 15,150$7,019 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,019.4 | 474 | 48.7%231 W · 243 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Grizzlies | 46c | 14,902$6,855 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,855 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Grizzlies | 47c | 6,336$2,953 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,952.51 | 710 | 52.1%370 W · 340 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Grizzlies | 46c | 3,044$1,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,400.24 | 1,451 | 49.7%721 W · 730 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Grizzlies | 47c | 2,836$1,319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,318.7 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…9054backed Grizzlies | 46c | 2,763$1,271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,270.75 | 300 | 53.3%160 W · 140 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked Grizzlies | 46c | 2,637$1,213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,212.96 | 194 | 48.5%94 W · 100 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Grizzlies | 46c | 2,320$1,072 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,071.66 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x098c…1c67backed Grizzlies | 46c | 2,250$1,035 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,035 | 164 | 36.6%60 W · 104 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Grizzlies | 46c | 1,705$792 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$791.73 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6177…86e0backed Pistons | 52c | 570$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.6 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…3a70backed Grizzlies | 48c | 570$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.6 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Grizzlies | 47c | 500$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235 | 956 | 41.7%399 W · 557 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6884…6ccfbacked Pistons | 53c | 418.87$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.87 | 390 | 51.5%201 W · 189 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44a0…c3b9backed Pistons | 54c | 400$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186 | 275 | 47.6%131 W · 144 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45d6…36cbbacked Grizzlies | 47c | 319.15$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 245 | 33.9%83 W · 162 L | -19.1wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x375e…6c94backed Grizzlies | 46c | 300$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138 | 85 | 40%34 W · 51 L | -8.4wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Grizzlies | 46c | 247$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.62 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Grizzlies | 46c | 247$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.62 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Grizzlies | 46c | 247$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.62 | 1,667 | 52.7%878 W · 789 L | +45.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…6124backed Grizzlies | 48c | 175$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.32 | 361 | 48.5%175 W · 186 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Grizzlies | 47c | 155$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.85 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8328…0a5cbacked Pistons | 54c | 151.54$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.71 | 368 | 42.4%156 W · 212 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Grizzlies | 47c | 150.19$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.35 | 801 | 48.3%387 W · 414 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Grizzlies | 49c | 144$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.56 | 1,109 | 41.8%464 W · 645 L | -20.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ec8…eaefbacked Pistons | 54c | 103$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.38 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe45d…f77ebacked Grizzlies | 49c | 81.63$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 253 | 36.8%93 W · 160 L | -10.2wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa53f…b4c8backed Pistons | 54c | 62.96$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.96 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +17%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ce3…e89ebacked Pistons | 53c | 62.26$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.26 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -4.1wins | -0.23per pick | 51cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x88bf…591abacked Pistons | 53c | 50.94$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.94 | 62 | 38.7%24 W · 38 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba57…184cbacked Pistons | 54c | 46.3$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.3 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8c3…f46ebacked Grizzlies | 47c | 38.59$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x528e…a0bdbacked Pistons | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.78 | 69 | 47.8%33 W · 36 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3cf…3183backed Pistons | 55c | 18.51$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.33 | 70 | 52.9%37 W · 33 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Pistons (-3.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Pistons (-2.5)Pistons won
- Pistons vs. GrizzliesPistons won
- Pistons vs. Grizzlies: O/U 235.5Under won
- Pistons vs. Grizzlies: O/U 236.5Under won
- Pistons vs. Grizzlies: O/U 237.5Under won
- Spread: Pistons (-2.5)Pistons won
- Spread: Pistons (-4.5)Pistons won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.