NBA · resolved market
Spread: Pistons (-4.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x86559166a3cfc03d085a0bd5543b127b696cd85973b0be190826e9c17dc37118
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Pistonsof Pistons, Grizzlies
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $65,549
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $65,934
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $65,549 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ade…f5b0backed Pistons | 50c | 28,438$14,150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,287.76 | 1,556 | 52.8%822 W · 734 L | +40.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Grizzlies | 50c | 9,042$4,521 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,521 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Grizzlies | 51c | 8,745$4,435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,434.53 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Grizzlies | 52c | 8,558$4,450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,450.16 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ca…a175backed Grizzlies | 51c | 7,314$3,730 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,730.27 | 824 | 42.2%348 W · 476 L | -3.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc568…1a8cbacked Pistons | 50c | 3,150$1,575 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,575 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Pistons | 48c | 2,219$1,067 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,152.21 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Pistons | 46c | 1,637$753 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$883.95 | 1,139 | 48.3%550 W · 589 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x871f…7630backed Grizzlies | 54c | 1,637$884 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$883.95 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Pistons | 48c | 1,582$759 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$822.79 | 710 | 52.1%370 W · 340 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbad…9c95backed Pistons | 49c | 1,350$662 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$688.5 | 63 | 52.4%33 W · 30 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Grizzlies | 52c | 1,346$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb083…b3f0backed Grizzlies | 52c | 1,310$682 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$681.59 | 202 | 48%97 W · 105 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -14%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Grizzlies | 51c | 1,022$521 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$521 | 507 | 54.2%275 W · 232 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc439…1308backed Pistons | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb72…3582backed Grizzlies | 51c | 1,000$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e2f…ec47backed Grizzlies | 52c | 625$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325 | 747 | 48.5%362 W · 385 L | +8.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf373…dc57backed Grizzlies | 52c | 580$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.6 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84df…e3b8backed Pistons | 48c | 580$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.6 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +2.4wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Grizzlies | 51c | 500$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255 | 956 | 41.7%399 W · 557 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44a0…c3b9backed Pistons | 49c | 437$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.86 | 275 | 47.6%131 W · 144 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2c2…4de7backed Grizzlies | 51c | 400$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204 | 491 | 42.6%209 W · 282 L | +12.1wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2630…e941backed Grizzlies | 50c | 284.97$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.49 | 428 | 45.1%193 W · 235 L | -15.7wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f19…b0cabacked Grizzlies | 51c | 280$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.4 | 244 | 23.8%58 W · 186 L | -7.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Grizzlies | 36c | 280$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.8 | 474 | 48.7%231 W · 243 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55f7…23a3backed Pistons | 50c | 234.97$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.49 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe922…39b3backed Pistons | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 235 | 53.6%126 W · 109 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Grizzlies | 51c | 199.75$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.75 | 801 | 48.3%387 W · 414 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Grizzlies | 50c | 195.13$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.27 | 1,667 | 52.7%878 W · 789 L | +45.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Grizzlies | 50c | 187.2$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.6 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae72…f49dbacked Grizzlies | 52c | 153.9$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 39 | 33.3%13 W · 26 L | -3.8wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2791…2791backed Pistons | 48c | 150$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +4.1wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…cd84backed Pistons | 49c | 150$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.5 | 123 | 42.3%52 W · 71 L | -6.9wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x69c4…09a3backed Grizzlies | 51c | 147.06$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 102 | 50%51 W · 51 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4335…fc2fbacked Grizzlies | 51c | 129$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.79 | 173 | 54.3%94 W · 79 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb891…969bbacked Grizzlies | 50c | 111$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.5 | 249 | 46.6%116 W · 133 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd99…f375backed Pistons | 50c | 110$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 381 | 51.2%195 W · 186 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b0b…3f0bbacked Grizzlies | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 60 | 40%24 W · 36 L | -5.7wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -34%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x35a4…a58abacked Pistons | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12c4…ff8cbacked Pistons | 52c | 57.17$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.17 | 152 | 45.4%69 W · 83 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88bf…591abacked Pistons | 49c | 51.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.02 | 62 | 38.7%24 W · 38 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfde0…c132backed Pistons | 49c | 51.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.02 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Pistons | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 179 | 41.9%75 W · 104 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…ed69backed Pistons | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 388 | 45.6%177 W · 211 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Grizzlies | 47c | 47.17$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.17 | 471 | 44.2%208 W · 263 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Grizzlies | 50c | 37$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.66 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe714…c180backed Grizzlies | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.16per pick | 58cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x04ee…be10backed Pistons | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.22per pick | 40cpaid | +45.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Pistons (-4.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Pistons (-2.5)Pistons won
- Pistons vs. GrizzliesPistons won
- Pistons vs. Grizzlies: O/U 235.5Under won
- Pistons vs. Grizzlies: O/U 236.5Under won
- Pistons vs. Grizzlies: O/U 237.5Under won
- Spread: Pistons (-2.5)Pistons won
- Spread: Pistons (-3.5)Pistons won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.