NBA · resolved market
Spread: Pistons (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd32d3191ecfb9d474eac1fe4cb141209b23ba3ac5faef2b5c63a01acd971a852
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Pistonsof Pistons, Grizzlies
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,059
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,481
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,059 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x822c…a2fcbacked Grizzlies | 44c | 4,500$1,980 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,980 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.22per pick | 50cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5ed5…6fcabacked Pistons | 56c | 3,550$1,988 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,562 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00ce…c8f3backed Grizzlies | 44c | 3,430$1,509 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,509.2 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ecd…1d24backed Pistons | 56c | 3,350$1,876 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,474 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1144…e1c3backed Grizzlies | 44c | 2,910$1,280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,280.4 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5358…8a78backed Grizzlies | 44c | 2,467$1,087 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,086.96 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8255…7cc9backed Pistons | 56c | 2,380$1,333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,047.2 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x074e…78f2backed Grizzlies | 44c | 1,940$854 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$853.6 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f2…4b20backed Pistons | 56c | 1,800$1,008 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$792 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f92…cc7dbacked Pistons | 57c | 1,412$805 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$607.16 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6b2…cbe8backed Pistons | 56c | 1,367$766 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$601.48 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb6…d44ebacked Grizzlies | 44c | 1,310$576 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$576.4 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.22per pick | 50cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Grizzlies | 44c | 1,304$567 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$567.29 | 857 | 42.6%365 W · 492 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Pistons | 55c | 1,296$717 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$579.44 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd9…cc5bbacked Pistons | 56c | 1,200$672 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$528 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ec1…f01dbacked Grizzlies | 44c | 1,020$449 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$448.8 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2da…450cbacked Grizzlies | 44c | 1,000$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6033…65b4backed Pistons | 56c | 980$549 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$431.2 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.7wins | -0.38per pick | 52cpaid | -74.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x51d6…64d0backed Pistons | 56c | 960$538 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$422.4 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa272…caeabacked Pistons | 56c | 960$538 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$422.4 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.22per pick | 50cpaid | +45.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Grizzlies | 43c | 911.41$388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$387.92 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3f5…044fbacked Pistons | 56c | 891$499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$392.04 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91a0…852dbacked Grizzlies | 44c | 750$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b79…ec6abacked Grizzlies | 44c | 730$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.2 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ff…ae92backed Pistons | 56c | 726$407 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.44 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0539…0529backed Grizzlies | 44c | 710$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.4 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb1…cc29backed Pistons | 56c | 710$398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.4 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97aa…7881backed Pistons | 56c | 704$394 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309.76 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.5wins | +0.36per pick | 49cpaid | +76.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8a04…5027backed Grizzlies | 44c | 700$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 50cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe4b0…3183backed Pistons | 56c | 696$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.24 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Grizzlies | 43c | 636$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.96 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b55…d625backed Pistons | 56c | 632$354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.08 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.6wins | +0.37per pick | 48cpaid | +79.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Pistons | 57c | 605.68$345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.44 | 418 | 48.3%202 W · 216 L | -7.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5cf…4197backed Pistons | 56c | 600$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4171…9bcbbacked Grizzlies | 44c | 570$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.8 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x583f…8a4fbacked Grizzlies | 45c | 558$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.1 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5cf8…5fb6backed Grizzlies | 45c | 553$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.85 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -3.4wins | -0.38per pick | 49cpaid | -76.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9112…c740backed Pistons | 56c | 550$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.36per pick | 53cpaid | -70.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x942c…fb3abacked Pistons | 59c | 510.17$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.17 | 56 | 53.6%30 W · 26 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4418…0a93backed Pistons | 56c | 510$286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.4 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.21per pick | 51cpaid | +42.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac9…2d01backed Grizzlies | 44c | 500$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05dc…37a7backed Pistons | 56c | 500$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5c2…ede2backed Grizzlies | 44c | 478$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.32 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 49cpaid | -41%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0423…359bbacked Pistons | 56c | 470$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.8 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.33per pick | 50cpaid | +69.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbdb7…935cbacked Grizzlies | 44c | 469$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.36 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.25per pick | 47cpaid | +53.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5632…c2dabacked Grizzlies | 45c | 444.44$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.9wins | -0.22per pick | 45cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xed84…e889backed Grizzlies | 44c | 367$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.48 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc281…b231backed Pistons | 56c | 350$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a9e…70cebacked Pistons | 56c | 316$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.04 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +52.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b15…cc30backed Grizzlies | 45c | 301$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.45 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x573b…cdbbbacked Grizzlies | 44c | 265$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.6 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf738…c2f3backed Grizzlies | 44c | 235$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.4 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.22per pick | 50cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7321…0eb7backed Pistons | 56c | 209$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.96 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.21per pick | 50cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x50d7…b32dbacked Grizzlies | 44c | 156$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.64 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.5wins | -0.36per pick | 51cpaid | -69.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Pistons | 56c | 137.17$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.94 | 801 | 48.3%387 W · 414 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Grizzlies | 44c | 107.59$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.34 | 710 | 52.1%370 W · 340 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x782c…155fbacked Pistons | 56c | 103$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.32 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd15b…8be2backed Grizzlies | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.28per pick | 48cpaid | +56.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Pistons | 56c | 77$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.88 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84c9…ae1abacked Pistons | 56c | 59$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.96 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 53cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb612…2df3backed Pistons | 56c | 53.57$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.57 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | -4.5wins | -0.09per pick | 58cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x098c…1c67backed Grizzlies | 44c | 39$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.16 | 164 | 36.6%60 W · 104 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb083…b3f0backed Grizzlies | 45c | 39$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.55 | 202 | 48%97 W · 105 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -14%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Grizzlies | 46c | 27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 1,109 | 41.8%464 W · 645 L | -20.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c68…fea4backed Pistons | 57c | 26.32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.32 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Pistons (-2.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Pistons (-2.5)Pistons won
- Pistons vs. GrizzliesPistons won
- Pistons vs. Grizzlies: O/U 235.5Under won
- Pistons vs. Grizzlies: O/U 236.5Under won
- Pistons vs. Grizzlies: O/U 237.5Under won
- Spread: Pistons (-3.5)Pistons won
- Spread: Pistons (-4.5)Pistons won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.