World Politics · resolved market
Will voter turnout in the 2025 Norwegian parliamentary election be between 81 and 84%?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb4b77b422cb5be1a2f9f0ed99e523d615e6f6b6d7e2fd0e15ded71b8ea55bac3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,667
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,255
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,667 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd2d5…1f99backed Yes | 3c | 3,019$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7678…e5f0backed Yes | 8c | 3,000$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237 | 46 | 23.9%11 W · 35 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x551e…b0e0backed Yes | 7c | 2,597$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.61 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x55f6…730ebacked Yes | 3c | 2,575$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a31…f2f0backed Yes | 5c | 851.97$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.7 | 61 | 39.3%24 W · 37 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc57b…8281backed Yes | 2c | 600$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.47 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f43…65fdbacked Yes | 8c | 524.72$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.04 | 203 | 25.6%52 W · 151 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a86…5664backed Yes | 22c | 495.65$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.98 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cea…f32abacked Yes | 2c | 469.87$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 51 | 17.6%9 W · 42 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 4c | 467.49$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.74 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20b8…399abacked Yes | 23c | 415.4$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e9c…1115backed Yes | 8c | 291.33$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.25 | 55 | 20%11 W · 44 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | +86.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x509e…63edbacked Yes | 12c | 288.72$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2255…65d8backed Yes | 6c | 249.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.47 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8a5…0e31backed Yes | 8c | 246.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce70…b4f4backed Yes | 8c | 243.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.14per pick | 32cpaid | -6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Yes | 7c | 228.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.45 | 79 | 32.9%26 W · 53 L | -5.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7f30…7698backed Yes | 7c | 207.02$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.42 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b83…a4c1backed Yes | 5c | 200$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1007…17a3backed Yes | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddde…2e88backed Yes | 8c | 200$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 7c | 199.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 380 | 23.9%91 W · 289 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3aec…2a1abacked Yes | 8c | 130$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa87…e313backed Yes | 22c | 113$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will voter turnout in the 2025 Norwegian parliamentary election be between 81 and 84%?this page
- Will voter turnout in the 2025 Norwegian parliamentary election be between 72 and 75%?No won
- Will voter turnout in the 2025 Norwegian parliamentary election be between 75 and 78%?No won
- Will voter turnout in the 2025 Norwegian parliamentary election be between 78 and 81%?Yes won
- Will voter turnout in the 2025 Norwegian parliamentary election be more than 84%?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.