World Politics · resolved market
Will voter turnout in the 2025 Norwegian parliamentary election be between 78 and 81%?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0bb0c2f605d342f1d01d3406c4ee5973a073fdc35bde91f663b64a97d56bc50b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,437
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,726
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,437 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x649f…993ebacked No | 63c | 5,487$3,445 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,444.82 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.31per pick | 46cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x551e…b0e0backed Yes | 50c | 4,795$2,374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,421.33 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8731…1181backed Yes | 35c | 2,103$729 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,374.14 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | +5.9wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7678…e5f0backed Yes | 42c | 2,026$844 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,181.67 | 46 | 23.9%11 W · 35 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9660…33b3backed Yes | 23c | 1,547$363 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,183.24 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca42…d480backed Yes | 76c | 1,311$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310.56 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 44cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb23a…9a75backed Yes | 65c | 1,272$823 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$449.46 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.18per pick | 20cpaid | +65%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1237…06afbacked No | 58c | 1,215$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$699.93 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -4.4wins | -0.16per pick | 46cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed No | 43c | 898.23$389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$388.59 | 96 | 27.1%26 W · 70 L | -7.0wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2a31…f2f0backed Yes | 38c | 850$327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$523.5 | 61 | 39.3%24 W · 37 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked No | 60c | 829$494 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$493.66 | 199 | 57.3%114 W · 85 L | +6.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 79c | 736.59$585 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$584.97 | 457 | 23.2%106 W · 351 L | -15.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac8…77cdbacked Yes | 20c | 684.87$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$550.39 | 302 | 33.8%102 W · 200 L | +19.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 40c | 600$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$358 | 549 | 34.6%190 W · 359 L | -37.0wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfa2d…dbcbbacked Yes | 47c | 555$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.9 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4ab…7e31backed Yes | 46c | 492.31$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.17 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf6…559dbacked Yes | 30c | 478.73$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.78 | 315 | 34%107 W · 208 L | +7.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b83…a4c1backed Yes | 40c | 433.93$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.61 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97cc…bbbfbacked Yes | 22c | 382.83$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.03 | 59 | 35.6%21 W · 38 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 53c | 380$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.4 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x414b…0d3fbacked Yes | 53c | 361.9$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.43 | 133 | 34.6%46 W · 87 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cea…f32abacked Yes | 31c | 358.94$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.21 | 51 | 17.6%9 W · 42 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 34c | 335.19$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.25 | 576 | 36.3%209 W · 367 L | -27.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 42c | 300$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174 | 482 | 24.7%119 W · 363 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1088…b813backed Yes | 38c | 299.95$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.07 | 136 | 39%53 W · 83 L | +7.0wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed Yes | 31c | 228.09$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.38 | 253 | 37.2%94 W · 159 L | +8.0wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb9…882dbacked Yes | 46c | 217.35$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.35 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e9c…1115backed Yes | 50c | 200.51$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.51 | 55 | 20%11 W · 44 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | +86.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x94e4…b7cfbacked Yes | 30c | 164.22$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.22 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f43…65fdbacked No | 35c | 154.84$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.19 | 203 | 25.6%52 W · 151 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77b6…f279backed No | 42c | 154$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.15 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x253e…bf81backed Yes | 17c | 147.06$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.06 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 18cpaid | +194.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 69c | 140$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.6 | 51 | 17.6%9 W · 42 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbd0…edc4backed Yes | 39c | 126.73$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.73 | 110 | 17.3%19 W · 91 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed No | 66c | 110$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.6 | 79 | 32.9%26 W · 53 L | -5.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 66c | 100.01$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88f5…828abacked Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 44cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f50…1fb6backed No | 72c | 100$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.2 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 380 | 23.9%91 W · 289 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x550a…9abebacked Yes | 40c | 77.5$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +25%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7920…5085backed Yes | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.43 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 34cpaid | +80.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b24…01abbacked Yes | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.43 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x935d…08ffbacked No | 47c | 68.72$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.96 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 52c | 64.01$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.05 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cd0…f582backed No | 34c | 54.14$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1a7…a9cdbacked Yes | 57c | 52.76$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.76 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa6f…7e67backed No | 72c | 52$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.18 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +3.0wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd14e…7e5fbacked Yes | 53c | 47.17$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.17 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.17per pick | 37cpaid | +89.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1dfa…b4e9backed Yes | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 314 | 43.9%138 W · 176 L | -12.8wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 57c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 200 | 51.5%103 W · 97 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc254…3f73backed Yes | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -3.0wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4333…3a6dbacked No | 33c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9afd…3028backed No | 61c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd037…15aebacked Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 23cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7d5…8a19backed Yes | 73c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed No | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 107 | 41.1%44 W · 63 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd916…e664backed Yes | 75c | 17.16$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will voter turnout in the 2025 Norwegian parliamentary election be between 78 and 81%?this page
- Will voter turnout in the 2025 Norwegian parliamentary election be between 72 and 75%?No won
- Will voter turnout in the 2025 Norwegian parliamentary election be between 75 and 78%?No won
- Will voter turnout in the 2025 Norwegian parliamentary election be between 81 and 84%?No won
- Will voter turnout in the 2025 Norwegian parliamentary election be more than 84%?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.