NBA · resolved market

Will Ausar Thompson lead the NBA in steals during the 2025–26 NBA season?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1d18ea76e6b90075064466ed428970fc6932c7fc3bf32e74855e622a982a694c

Rebuilt 19 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Yesof Yes, No
Resolved: Apr 13, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $29,887
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $26,933

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,887 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x9cdd…3e97backed No	3c	6,709$187 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$186.7	67	64.2%43 W · 24 L	+1.5wins	+0.02per pick	62cpaid	-4.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x997b…801ebacked Yes	74c	788.58$584 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$205	461	31%143 W · 318 L	+15.6wins	+0.03per pick	28cpaid	+10.5%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd10c…0645backed Yes	57c	776.36$443 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$333.36	29	37.9%11 W · 18 L	-1.1wins	-0.04per pick	42cpaid	-28.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x086a…1435backed Yes	7c	775.73$53 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$722.37	63	19%12 W · 51 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	18cpaid	+8.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed Yes	15c	756.86$116 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$640.79	221	40.3%89 W · 132 L	-1.4wins	-0.01per pick	41cpaid	-16.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x66a1…80d9backed Yes	4c	709.33$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$684.37	79	15.2%12 W · 67 L	+5.5wins	+0.07per pick	8cpaid	+0.2%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa815…9cbebacked Yes	6c	701.6$44 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$657.25	89	4.5%4 W · 85 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	5cpaid	-18.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe542…0a37backed Yes	6c	610.71$39 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$571.99	401	33.4%134 W · 267 L	+27.0wins	+0.07per pick	27cpaid	+20.4%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xea2d…c4d9backed Yes	4c	564.88$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$542.76	23	43.5%10 W · 13 L	+2.1wins	+0.09per pick	34cpaid	+191.5%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x84b8…1193backed Yes	5c	480$23 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$457.44	349	42.7%149 W · 200 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x96ab…4135backed Yes	44c	378$165 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$213.44	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+1.2wins	+0.58per pick	42cpaid	+139.9%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdbde…3dc9backed No	39c	362$142 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$142.45	16	18.8%3 W · 13 L	-3.3wins	-0.21per pick	40cpaid	-61.6%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No	25c	316.45$79 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$79.1	88	53.4%47 W · 41 L	+7.3wins	+0.08per pick	45cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes	5c	316.06$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$301.06	150	10%15 W · 135 L	-2.7wins	-0.02per pick	12cpaid	-33.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7dc4…a38dbacked Yes	33c	302.35$101 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$201.45	19	42.1%8 W · 11 L	-1.3wins	-0.07per pick	49cpaid	-16.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x17a5…e00abacked Yes	20c	267$54 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$212.93	10	50%5 W · 5 L	+1.4wins	+0.14per pick	36cpaid	+197.6%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4657…00d6backed Yes	9c	243$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$221.13	16	50%8 W · 8 L	+1.6wins	+0.10per pick	40cpaid	+55.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4980…57febacked Yes	16c	204.7$33 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$171.34	102	45.1%46 W · 56 L	-4.0wins	-0.04per pick	49cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5615…19cebacked Yes	10c	200$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$180	18	50%9 W · 9 L	+0.7wins	+0.04per pick	46cpaid	+37.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x370e…5df3backed Yes	61c	181$111 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$70.41	13	46.2%6 W · 7 L	-1.0wins	-0.08per pick	54cpaid	-13.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3dfb…ebbfbacked Yes	60c	181$109 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$72.04	11	54.5%6 W · 5 L	+1.1wins	+0.10per pick	45cpaid	+20.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked No	30c	160$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.54	1,113	41.6%463 W · 650 L	-10.0wins	-0.01per pick	43cpaid	-17.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x83e8…7b89backed No	62c	147.78$91 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$91.32	31	41.9%13 W · 18 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	41cpaid	+5.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x80af…0c19backed No	42c	119$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.98	16	25%4 W · 12 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	27cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7f15…52f1backed Yes	76c	113.42$86 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27.22	53	50.9%27 W · 26 L	-1.6wins	-0.03per pick	54cpaid	-12.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9cff…3abdbacked Yes	49c	109.32$53 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$56.1	13	61.5%8 W · 5 L	+1.2wins	+0.09per pick	53cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4257…43bbbacked No	20c	100.25$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.05	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	42cpaid	-24.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7fb8…d906backed No	57c	100$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.2wins	+0.08per pick	59cpaid	+12.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5fe5…8b99backed No	52c	78.58$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.64	95	43.2%41 W · 54 L	+3.2wins	+0.03per pick	40cpaid	+9.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No	66c	70.12$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.48	67	62.7%42 W · 25 L	+5.1wins	+0.08per pick	55cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No	44c	65.41$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.94	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-0.3wins	-0.06per pick	46cpaid	-33.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x69e5…4dc4backed No	24c	61.92$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.86	4	50%2 W · 2 L	+0.4wins	+0.10per pick	40cpaid	-18%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x02f9…54dbbacked Yes	28c	56.69$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$40.58	9	55.6%5 W · 4 L	+0.2wins	+0.02per pick	54cpaid	+8.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed No	40c	53.06$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.47	35	37.1%13 W · 22 L	-2.9wins	-0.08per pick	45cpaid	-35.1%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2afd…deb4backed No	28c	51.55$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.46	57	40.4%23 W · 34 L	+1.6wins	+0.03per pick	38cpaid	-14.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x96ef…d98abacked No	20c	50.07$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	-0.4wins	-0.05per pick	38cpaid	-19.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6dd…c6b6backed No	80c	43$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.39	20	45%9 W · 11 L	+0.8wins	+0.04per pick	41cpaid	-21.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfcd0…5da9backed Yes	73c	41.1$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.1	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.3wins	+0.27per pick	73cpaid	+37%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Ausar Thompson lead the NBA in steals during the 2025–26 NBA season?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event