Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 18 to July 20, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc1f0c46d7c1f665b0428a818bc07ee2a140cf757d0304082da14f3b5b2beefa7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $132,266
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $98,679
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $132,266 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 175 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfd5c…6d2abacked Yes | 1c | 11,151$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.47 | 625 | 39.5%247 W · 378 L | +48.1wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x590e…e43dbacked Yes | 22c | 6,854$1,489 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,488.64 | 192 | 15.6%30 W · 162 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d5…87cfbacked Yes | 25c | 4,831$1,230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,229.84 | 564 | 29.8%168 W · 396 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes | 30c | 4,367$1,295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,295.42 | 535 | 22.6%121 W · 414 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6be9…3493backed Yes | 1c | 3,902$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.98 | 1,067 | 8.3%89 W · 978 L | +28.9wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2379…178ebacked Yes | 8c | 3,236$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.38 | 58 | 27.6%16 W · 42 L | +4.6wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1359…0c0dbacked Yes | 48c | 2,859$1,368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,368.16 | 59 | 25.4%15 W · 44 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04a2…e16cbacked No | 72c | 2,817$2,034 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$783.7 | 638 | 21.5%137 W · 501 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x524d…4495backed Yes | 26c | 2,705$717 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$716.51 | 162 | 22.2%36 W · 126 L | +8.4wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 64c | 2,553$1,643 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$910.06 | 221 | 60.2%133 W · 88 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b2…9a9bbacked No | 75c | 2,535$1,901 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$633.7 | 73 | 71.2%52 W · 21 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 73cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7505…2978backed Yes | 18c | 2,487$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 169 | 41.4%70 W · 99 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3eed…2050backed Yes | 26c | 2,330$595 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$595.08 | 106 | 29.2%31 W · 75 L | -5.1wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa02…f3d3backed Yes | 7c | 2,111$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156 | 48 | 29.2%14 W · 34 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90f1…72c6backed Yes | 7c | 2,028$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.49 | 624 | 12.3%77 W · 547 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f8d…99c7backed Yes | 2c | 2,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 253 | 11.5%29 W · 224 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7413…4b09backed Yes | 5c | 2,000$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.5 | 798 | 11.3%90 W · 708 L | +30.0wins | +0.04per pick | 8cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b05…8983backed Yes | 11c | 1,950$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.49 | 124 | 21.8%27 W · 97 L | +11.8wins | +0.10per pick | 12cpaid | +49.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes | 24c | 1,943$474 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$473.89 | 1,001 | 10.5%105 W · 896 L | -30.9wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99a6…6558backed Yes | 15c | 1,939$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.46 | 73 | 37%27 W · 46 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f00…487fbacked Yes | 16c | 1,700$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272 | 280 | 16.4%46 W · 234 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked Yes | 4c | 1,563$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.61 | 272 | 24.3%66 W · 206 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe243…af59backed Yes | 1c | 1,555$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.89 | 364 | 11%40 W · 324 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x732f…201ebacked Yes | 12c | 1,485$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.56 | 397 | 23.2%92 W · 305 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 73c | 1,465$1,072 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$392.98 | 388 | 48.5%188 W · 200 L | +16.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f66…b986backed Yes | 6c | 1,400$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 568 | 17.4%99 W · 469 L | +18.3wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 72c | 1,265$914 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$351.09 | 190 | 53.7%102 W · 88 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…04cebacked Yes | 18c | 1,152$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.43 | 119 | 32.8%39 W · 80 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed Yes | 17c | 1,070$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.07 | 412 | 30.8%127 W · 285 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x090a…0fa6backed No | 78c | 1,066$830 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.72 | 115 | 58.3%67 W · 48 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35f3…cfd0backed Yes | 11c | 1,000$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 437 | 19.7%86 W · 351 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1f…cc26backed Yes | 13c | 962.09$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.52 | 499 | 19%95 W · 404 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 79c | 941.33$743 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.09 | 167 | 50.3%84 W · 83 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7822…46c2backed Yes | 48c | 919.8$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc36…8542backed Yes | 34c | 917.61$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316 | 232 | 22.4%52 W · 180 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 27c | 872.14$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.3 | 1,782 | 7.4%132 W · 1,650 L | -23.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50a8…98edbacked Yes | 30c | 858.08$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.04 | 334 | 22.2%74 W · 260 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf257…1950backed Yes | 41c | 816.38$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336.05 | 424 | 24.5%104 W · 320 L | -13.9wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8288…5519backed Yes | 6c | 800$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.6 | 159 | 29.6%47 W · 112 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 19c | 770.99$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.38 | 1,045 | 13.6%142 W · 903 L | +37.8wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1425…d60dbacked Yes | 25c | 746.4$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.17 | 107 | 42.1%45 W · 62 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x146d…17c7backed Yes | 8c | 690.52$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.65 | 1,196 | 8.7%104 W · 1,092 L | +31.0wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 73c | 651.04$474 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.13 | 407 | 19.7%80 W · 327 L | -18.4wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x308a…eed3backed Yes | 4c | 600$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 66 | 30.3%20 W · 46 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +62.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x770a…9e6dbacked Yes | 46c | 600$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.4 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18a0…dea8backed No | 71c | 552.7$393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.45 | 576 | 21.2%122 W · 454 L | +9.9wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked No | 69c | 533.87$369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.47 | 97 | 11.3%11 W · 86 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -63%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd317…025abacked Yes | 11c | 531.9$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.51 | 220 | 23.6%52 W · 168 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x828e…c21bbacked Yes | 15c | 519.99$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.86 | 274 | 17.5%48 W · 226 L | +11.0wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x408a…ac7fbacked Yes | 27c | 516.27$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.52 | 69 | 40.6%28 W · 41 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ce0…5f11backed Yes | 9c | 500$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.5 | 427 | 19.2%82 W · 345 L | +23.3wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…d656backed Yes | 15c | 461.26$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.09 | 880 | 17.3%152 W · 728 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc78b…2ca5backed Yes | 11c | 453.84$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 101 | 25.7%26 W · 75 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes | 37c | 440.46$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.22 | 572 | 22%126 W · 446 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -42%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…0d4ebacked No | 62c | 430.16$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.46 | 140 | 50%70 W · 70 L | +8.7wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc5ab…2bcfbacked Yes | 21c | 424$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.34 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa713…4485backed Yes | 5c | 419.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.85 | 342 | 15.8%54 W · 288 L | +20.9wins | +0.06per pick | 10cpaid | +32%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdea3…2266backed Yes | 30c | 399.99$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -27%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9996…bda1backed Yes | 46c | 392.19$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.7 | 149 | 13.4%20 W · 129 L | -9.6wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3627…09f2backed Yes | 18c | 390.4$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 78c | 384.86$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.29 | 107 | 46.7%50 W · 57 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9df3…ddfcbacked Yes | 15c | 327.82$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 348 | 33.3%116 W · 232 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa980…583ebacked Yes | 9c | 323.81$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.14 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | +4.9wins | +0.11per pick | 26cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeacb…52a0backed Yes | 47c | 320.32$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 62c | 317$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.64 | 309 | 55%170 W · 139 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3488…d6fdbacked Yes | 26c | 316.97$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.1 | 207 | 35.3%73 W · 134 L | +5.2wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked Yes | 22c | 300$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 101 | 43.6%44 W · 57 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0acf…edf9backed Yes | 46c | 292.87$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.42 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a49…4985backed Yes | 47c | 289.98$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.37 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…0861backed Yes | 18c | 284.37$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.54 | 880 | 18.6%164 W · 716 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6964…ef53backed Yes | 26c | 275.6$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.36 | 662 | 22.2%147 W · 515 L | -34.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7039…4a7dbacked No | 73c | 273.97$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.97 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea8…ffcfbacked No | 45c | 271.11$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.11 | 200 | 9%18 W · 182 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 8cpaid | +173%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2d7…e3b7backed Yes | 28c | 256.48$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.92 | 316 | 24.7%78 W · 238 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 60c | 252.73$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.9 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fc8…d0dbbacked No | 46c | 234.3$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.52 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe343…23fdbacked Yes | 43c | 230.33$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.04 | 154 | 35.1%54 W · 100 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe073…942fbacked Yes | 9c | 220.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7141…8345backed Yes | 22c | 218.8$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.94 | 151 | 36.4%55 W · 96 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 72c | 213$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.78 | 144 | 51.4%74 W · 70 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe62e…cc81backed Yes | 47c | 212.11$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 167 | 41.3%69 W · 98 L | -5.6wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0186…40edbacked Yes | 30c | 206.45$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.28 | 97 | 33%32 W · 65 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ecb…26e8backed Yes | 47c | 204.98$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.96 | 45 | 26.7%12 W · 33 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed No | 64c | 200$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x304b…57b2backed Yes | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 84 | 9.5%8 W · 76 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 5cpaid | +105%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14a6…cca7backed Yes | 25c | 184.74$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.15 | 57 | 38.6%22 W · 35 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 59c | 181.56$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.6 | 518 | 45.9%238 W · 280 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbcb…bb5dbacked Yes | 26c | 168.28$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.18 | 223 | 25.1%56 W · 167 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c6f…c9a0backed Yes | 24c | 164.97$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.3 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68ff…ec42backed Yes | 10c | 161.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.47 | 90 | 18.9%17 W · 73 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e82…77acbacked Yes | 10c | 159$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 159 | 25.2%40 W · 119 L | +8.6wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea40…2698backed No | 65c | 154.91$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.91 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 78c | 153.97$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.43 | 116 | 43.1%50 W · 66 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0862…9a02backed Yes | 18c | 153.68$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.71 | 111 | 24.3%27 W · 84 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa04a…7aecbacked Yes | 9c | 151.11$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 19cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 52c | 150$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.7 | 148 | 64.9%96 W · 52 L | +9.6wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x65ab…273dbacked Yes | 11c | 150$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 204 | 32.4%66 W · 138 L | -11.3wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3742…150cbacked No | 76c | 150$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -2.6wins | -0.26per pick | 66cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 20c | 147.13$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.68 | 107 | 38.3%41 W · 66 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3423…fe57backed Yes | 15c | 146.17$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.51 | 508 | 28.3%144 W · 364 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 18 to July 20, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from July 18 to July 20, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from July 18 to July 20, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from July 18 to July 20, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from July 18 to July 20, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.