Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from July 18 to July 20, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3e28e3aa9a440b9e7268e52ff36e4e7748d33b1d7740086e4ed2d70add5e67a6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $183,273
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $188,663
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $183,273 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 192 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfd5c…6d2abacked No | 1c | 28,208$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.01 | 625 | 39.5%247 W · 378 L | +48.1wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x913f…c676backed Yes | 80c | 5,475$4,363 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,111.79 | 100 | 43%43 W · 57 L | -7.6wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x696e…1c38backed No | 29c | 5,350$1,569 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,568.57 | 92 | 33.7%31 W · 61 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc5f5…e714backed No | 13c | 4,923$635 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$635.21 | 83 | 24.1%20 W · 63 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7712…155abacked No | 23c | 4,301$980 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$979.67 | 158 | 44.9%71 W · 87 L | +12.4wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked No | 30c | 4,170$1,244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,244.17 | 97 | 11.3%11 W · 86 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -63%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes | 68c | 3,957$2,700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,257.53 | 535 | 22.6%121 W · 414 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d5…87cfbacked No | 33c | 3,661$1,210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,209.56 | 564 | 29.8%168 W · 396 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x524d…4495backed No | 30c | 3,080$921 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$921.18 | 162 | 22.2%36 W · 126 L | +8.4wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ba8…f50bbacked Yes | 69c | 2,903$2,005 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$897.6 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1359…0c0dbacked Yes | 36c | 2,858$1,022 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,836.21 | 59 | 25.4%15 W · 44 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04a2…e16cbacked Yes | 54c | 2,838$1,545 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,292.77 | 638 | 21.5%137 W · 501 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbcb…bb5dbacked No | 29c | 2,537$747 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$747.21 | 223 | 25.1%56 W · 167 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x038b…afc4backed Yes | 43c | 2,053$890 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,163.28 | 335 | 27.8%93 W · 242 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb831…892bbacked No | 5c | 2,000$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.3 | 179 | 17.9%32 W · 147 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -40%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2379…178ebacked No | 8c | 2,000$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 58 | 27.6%16 W · 42 L | +4.6wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x881a…ccccbacked No | 11c | 1,954$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.17 | 132 | 35.6%47 W · 85 L | +10.5wins | +0.08per pick | 28cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…04cebacked Yes | 57c | 1,860$1,059 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$800.5 | 119 | 32.8%39 W · 80 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 19c | 1,816$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.52 | 189 | 49.2%93 W · 96 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 25c | 1,815$458 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$457.63 | 388 | 48.5%188 W · 200 L | +16.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x42b8…1305backed No | 15c | 1,758$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.38 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | +4.1wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8565…0c43backed Yes | 75c | 1,750$1,307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$443.28 | 706 | 16.4%116 W · 590 L | -13.6wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -29%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5ab…2bcfbacked Yes | 69c | 1,744$1,210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$534.57 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd317…025abacked No | 5c | 1,505$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.7 | 220 | 23.6%52 W · 168 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74ff…be5bbacked No | 27c | 1,316$358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$357.8 | 1,001 | 10.5%105 W · 896 L | -30.9wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf257…1950backed No | 46c | 1,287$592 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$591.77 | 424 | 24.5%104 W · 320 L | -13.9wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 17c | 1,249$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.36 | 105 | 56.2%59 W · 46 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 42c | 1,105$466 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$639.61 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x090a…0fa6backed No | 23c | 1,066$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.23 | 115 | 58.3%67 W · 48 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked No | 5c | 1,053$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.63 | 272 | 24.3%66 W · 206 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 3c | 1,047$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.84 | 208 | 57.2%119 W · 89 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3335…fbd6backed No | 30c | 1,038$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.4 | 85 | 32.9%28 W · 57 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 46c | 934.04$426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$426.44 | 221 | 60.2%133 W · 88 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4f…c2f1backed No | 34c | 922.54$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.31 | 147 | 51%75 W · 72 L | +18.0wins | +0.12per pick | 39cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed No | 33c | 893.03$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.14 | 1,782 | 7.4%132 W · 1,650 L | -23.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc011…0a62backed No | 19c | 886.04$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.06 | 105 | 43.8%46 W · 59 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…d656backed No | 50c | 844.47$421 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$421.4 | 880 | 17.3%152 W · 728 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 21c | 834.55$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.22 | 101 | 51.5%52 W · 49 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7141…8345backed Yes | 63c | 816.82$511 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.36 | 151 | 36.4%55 W · 96 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b73…c441backed No | 52c | 806.26$416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$415.65 | 62 | 54.8%34 W · 28 L | +4.5wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0186…40edbacked Yes | 49c | 804.76$398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$406.63 | 97 | 33%32 W · 65 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea8…ffcfbacked No | 8c | 799.99$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 200 | 9%18 W · 182 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 8cpaid | +173%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dbb…f7ffbacked No | 66c | 760.04$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$498.65 | 58 | 43.1%25 W · 33 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 20c | 750.01$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.8 | 167 | 50.3%84 W · 83 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe133…6994backed No | 17c | 738.25$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.5 | 104 | 32.7%34 W · 70 L | +5.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…d801backed Yes | 52c | 729.77$377 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352.41 | 230 | 19.1%44 W · 186 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 26c | 719$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.38 | 190 | 53.7%102 W · 88 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7822…46c2backed Yes | 70c | 717.31$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.31 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7374…38ffbacked Yes | 72c | 663.84$475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.51 | 113 | 59.3%67 W · 46 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a3…eac8backed No | 27c | 629.94$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.51 | 191 | 24.6%47 W · 144 L | -10.8wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x770a…9e6dbacked Yes | 31c | 600$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$413.17 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a77…f859backed No | 11c | 599.6$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.73 | 153 | 12.4%19 W · 134 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 9cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e82…10efbacked Yes | 77c | 588$454 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.94 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18a0…dea8backed Yes | 73c | 492.32$361 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.42 | 576 | 21.2%122 W · 454 L | +9.9wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e6…e0bbbacked Yes | 68c | 482.87$327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.19 | 187 | 26.7%50 W · 137 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6df5…6430backed No | 9c | 480$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.2 | 455 | 11.6%53 W · 402 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | +104.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes | 66c | 435.95$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.19 | 572 | 22%126 W · 446 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -42%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 69c | 426.79$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.21 | 407 | 19.7%80 W · 327 L | -18.4wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeca2…20e6backed Yes | 74c | 410$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.5 | 72 | 51.4%37 W · 35 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad0c…df3cbacked Yes | 71c | 407.77$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.66 | 280 | 34.3%96 W · 184 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdea3…2266backed Yes | 58c | 400$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.58 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -27%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25d5…11fcbacked Yes | 78c | 395.33$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.33 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f55…d4b5backed Yes | 64c | 395.03$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.12 | 332 | 31%103 W · 229 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2d7…e3b7backed No | 30c | 390.27$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.1 | 316 | 24.7%78 W · 238 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca2…6e06backed Yes | 77c | 381.81$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.72 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +84.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 75c | 373.41$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.89 | 101 | 46.5%47 W · 54 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bff…e08fbacked Yes | 75c | 353.17$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.24 | 167 | 16.2%27 W · 140 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 13c | 348.1$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.91 | 104 | 38.5%40 W · 64 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 51c | 341.6$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.59 | 148 | 64.9%96 W · 52 L | +9.6wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes | 66c | 341.32$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.34 | 827 | 14.9%123 W · 704 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7505…2978backed No | 27c | 326.35$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.49 | 169 | 41.4%70 W · 99 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd0f…2154backed Yes | 41c | 325.37$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.5 | 344 | 25.6%88 W · 256 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3742…150cbacked Yes | 75c | 325$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.01 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -2.6wins | -0.26per pick | 66cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7c83…28d9backed Yes | 78c | 320.51$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.51 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.9wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -62.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0acf…edf9backed Yes | 49c | 319.04$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.83 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…0861backed No | 45c | 308.47$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.33 | 880 | 18.6%164 W · 716 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4af8…9188backed Yes | 75c | 306.45$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.45 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 38c | 301.39$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.44 | 241 | 55.6%134 W · 107 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…c453backed No | 70c | 298.99$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.49 | 461 | 37.5%173 W · 288 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 18c | 289.99$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.49 | 107 | 38.3%41 W · 66 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x590e…e43dbacked Yes | 75c | 261.21$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.23 | 192 | 15.6%30 W · 162 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a2e…64a4backed No | 13c | 257.57$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.81 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c4…8129backed No | 14c | 254.23$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.34 | 94 | 23.4%22 W · 72 L | -16.1wins | -0.17per pick | 41cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x998b…db96backed No | 15c | 248$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.58 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.15per pick | 24cpaid | -69.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes | 46c | 247.08$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.42 | 541 | 22.7%123 W · 418 L | +16.6wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 55c | 247$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.08 | 1,045 | 13.6%142 W · 903 L | +37.8wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc21e…e6d3backed Yes | 50c | 246.39$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.79 | 144 | 27.1%39 W · 105 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f8…97b3backed No | 17c | 243.79$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.82 | 221 | 42.5%94 W · 127 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e3babacked Yes | 67c | 233.57$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.6 | 325 | 29.2%95 W · 230 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ac6…0465backed Yes | 67c | 221.96$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.93 | 51 | 56.9%29 W · 22 L | +4.8wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ac…806ebacked Yes | 78c | 217.65$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.65 | 129 | 32.6%42 W · 87 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x408a…ac7fbacked Yes | 31c | 214.1$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.46 | 69 | 40.6%28 W · 41 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 28c | 213$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.64 | 144 | 51.4%74 W · 70 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed5…72a6backed No | 69c | 200$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138 | 124 | 29%36 W · 88 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +110.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4645…59babacked No | 26c | 200$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb38d…83d6backed Yes | 72c | 200$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa230…1cdbbacked Yes | 34c | 199.99$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.99 | 105 | 21.9%23 W · 82 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 29c | 199.17$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.95 | 125 | 48%60 W · 65 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3eb…376cbacked Yes | 69c | 192$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.66 | 91 | 41.8%38 W · 53 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b24…11efbacked No | 23c | 188.15$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.27 | 85 | 45.9%39 W · 46 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from July 18 to July 20, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from July 18 to July 20, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 18 to July 20, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from July 18 to July 20, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from July 18 to July 20, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.