Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from July 18 to July 20, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6d775af3cefca8d41b20251a4bec16cad06cf93f8d8fd2f2698b629923eb9e0f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $134,839
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $108,660
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $134,839 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdbf9…b9ccbacked Yes | 0c | 12,483$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 55 | 14.5%8 W · 47 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 9cpaid | +102.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf01e…51cbbacked Yes | 0c | 12,378$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.92 | 246 | 17.5%43 W · 203 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 3c | 6,584$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.22 | 1,782 | 7.4%132 W · 1,650 L | -23.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6df5…6430backed Yes | 0c | 5,979$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 455 | 11.6%53 W · 402 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | +104.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x524d…4495backed Yes | 5c | 5,400$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.98 | 162 | 22.2%36 W · 126 L | +8.4wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x828e…c21bbacked Yes | 3c | 3,882$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.32 | 274 | 17.5%48 W · 226 L | +11.0wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d5…87cfbacked Yes | 3c | 3,801$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.02 | 564 | 29.8%168 W · 396 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1359…0c0dbacked Yes | 1c | 2,858$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.29 | 59 | 25.4%15 W · 44 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x590e…e43dbacked Yes | 4c | 2,410$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.39 | 192 | 15.6%30 W · 162 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0186…40edbacked Yes | 3c | 1,924$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.25 | 97 | 33%32 W · 65 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6be9…3493backed Yes | 2c | 1,860$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.23 | 1,067 | 8.3%89 W · 978 L | +28.9wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe089…ad3abacked Yes | 4c | 1,571$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.28 | 183 | 4.4%8 W · 175 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | +235.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x666a…4bf0backed Yes | 4c | 1,571$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.21 | 181 | 7.7%14 W · 167 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e0…44e0backed Yes | 2c | 1,300$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 46 | 15.2%7 W · 39 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ce0…5f11backed Yes | 2c | 1,200$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 427 | 19.2%82 W · 345 L | +23.3wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…d656backed Yes | 8c | 1,073$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.36 | 880 | 17.3%152 W · 728 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bff…e08fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 167 | 16.2%27 W · 140 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbcb…bb5dbacked Yes | 6c | 943$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.08 | 223 | 25.1%56 W · 167 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 17c | 803.46$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.96 | 116 | 43.1%50 W · 66 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 5c | 774$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.22 | 1,045 | 13.6%142 W · 903 L | +37.8wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 18c | 648.22$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.31 | 116 | 37.1%43 W · 73 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x770a…9e6dbacked Yes | 13c | 600.26$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.99 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…0861backed Yes | 5c | 510.86$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.56 | 880 | 18.6%164 W · 716 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeba1…44dfbacked Yes | 17c | 499.99$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.91 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes | 12c | 443.29$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.9 | 1,001 | 10.5%105 W · 896 L | -30.9wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd0f…2154backed Yes | 6c | 358.43$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.26 | 344 | 25.6%88 W · 256 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31ed…d18cbacked Yes | 14c | 354.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 58 | 5.2%3 W · 55 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf257…1950backed Yes | 16c | 310.87$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.55 | 424 | 24.5%104 W · 320 L | -13.9wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a066backed Yes | 13c | 300$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Yes | 15c | 248.58$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.4 | 97 | 11.3%11 W · 86 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -63%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe46…8b21backed Yes | 7c | 242.43$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.97 | 218 | 16.1%35 W · 183 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda00…61b4backed Yes | 15c | 223.92$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.64 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9996…bda1backed Yes | 9c | 197.44$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 149 | 13.4%20 W · 129 L | -9.6wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x68ff…ec42backed Yes | 11c | 156.42$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.73 | 90 | 18.9%17 W · 73 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf512…0985backed Yes | 15c | 99.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 121 | 17.4%21 W · 100 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbf0…fdbebacked Yes | 16c | 99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 205 | 32.7%67 W · 138 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5deb…d24cbacked Yes | 14c | 83.71$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.72 | 56 | 33.9%19 W · 37 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5da6…46cdbacked Yes | 16c | 62.84$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from July 18 to July 20, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from July 18 to July 20, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 18 to July 20, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from July 18 to July 20, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from July 18 to July 20, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.