Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 13 to July 15, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7b85f02daf8094bb355685cb5697734396dc42c81a0ad16ff9f68131780d4eed
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $172,917
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $191,068
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $172,917 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 160 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x524d…4495backed No | 2c | 13,791$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.8 | 162 | 22.2%36 W · 126 L | +8.4wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x04a2…e16cbacked No | 17c | 7,278$1,224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,224.14 | 638 | 21.5%137 W · 501 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c2c…407ebacked No | 1c | 6,000$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 240 | 1.7%4 W · 236 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | +675.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99a6…6558backed Yes | 26c | 5,433$1,419 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,014.28 | 73 | 37%27 W · 46 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 17c | 5,202$895 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$895.5 | 208 | 57.2%119 W · 89 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes | 66c | 4,077$2,689 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,388.3 | 572 | 22%126 W · 446 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -42%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cc…f09bbacked Yes | 66c | 3,834$2,523 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,311.13 | 140 | 37.1%52 W · 88 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8288…5519backed Yes | 73c | 2,998$2,178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$820.13 | 159 | 29.6%47 W · 112 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce40…da67backed Yes | 29c | 2,845$819 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,025.89 | 538 | 17.3%93 W · 445 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes | 40c | 2,640$1,048 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,591.87 | 1,001 | 10.5%105 W · 896 L | -30.9wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 21c | 2,611$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$539.63 | 407 | 19.7%80 W · 327 L | -18.4wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed54…7cc7backed Yes | 68c | 2,593$1,763 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$829.29 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 44cpaid | +55.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 67c | 2,224$1,490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$734.3 | 116 | 33.6%39 W · 77 L | -7.4wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2eef…eacabacked Yes | 53c | 2,106$1,117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$988.94 | 214 | 29.9%64 W · 150 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -28%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1359…0c0dbacked Yes | 51c | 1,972$1,014 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$957.8 | 59 | 25.4%15 W · 44 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 77c | 1,676$1,288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,288.24 | 189 | 49.2%93 W · 96 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 34c | 1,506$517 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$989.03 | 1,782 | 7.4%132 W · 1,650 L | -23.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 51c | 1,446$734 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$733.89 | 309 | 55%170 W · 139 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3f…a942backed No | 72c | 1,394$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 115 | 56.5%65 W · 50 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes | 35c | 1,276$442 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$834.26 | 535 | 22.6%121 W · 414 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea40…2698backed No | 10c | 1,226$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.88 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b05…8983backed Yes | 10c | 1,200$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,075.99 | 124 | 21.8%27 W · 97 L | +11.8wins | +0.10per pick | 12cpaid | +49.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x35f3…cfd0backed Yes | 46c | 1,148$525 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$623.29 | 437 | 19.7%86 W · 351 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 56c | 1,082$605 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$604.7 | 221 | 60.2%133 W · 88 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…d656backed Yes | 25c | 1,064$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$793.62 | 880 | 17.3%152 W · 728 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5f5…e714backed Yes | 16c | 1,000$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$840 | 83 | 24.1%20 W · 63 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 47c | 971.61$452 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$519.4 | 768 | 21.7%167 W · 601 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 1c | 921.39$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.34 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18a0…dea8backed Yes | 22c | 917.88$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$720.22 | 576 | 21.2%122 W · 454 L | +9.9wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4f…c2f1backed Yes | 18c | 889.8$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$729.14 | 147 | 51%75 W · 72 L | +18.0wins | +0.12per pick | 39cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed Yes | 55c | 888.57$485 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$403.09 | 412 | 30.8%127 W · 285 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3335…fbd6backed No | 30c | 882.99$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.9 | 85 | 32.9%28 W · 57 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f66…b986backed Yes | 19c | 876$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$706.47 | 568 | 17.4%99 W · 469 L | +18.3wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedc1…0a06backed Yes | 40c | 839.98$339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500.58 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +15%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 76c | 821.08$627 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$626.98 | 107 | 56.1%60 W · 47 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…dc7abacked Yes | 17c | 804.99$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$668.59 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +84.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 73c | 750.67$551 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.93 | 116 | 43.1%50 W · 66 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked No | 2c | 730.49$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.82 | 89 | 15.7%14 W · 75 L | +5.3wins | +0.06per pick | 10cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 54c | 691.15$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375.08 | 101 | 51.5%52 W · 49 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 80c | 627.86$502 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.13 | 125 | 48%60 W · 65 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf257…1950backed Yes | 47c | 565.43$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.18 | 424 | 24.5%104 W · 320 L | -13.9wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb87f…f7d4backed No | 11c | 554.68$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.09 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c75…fd50backed Yes | 58c | 511.24$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.26 | 156 | 31.4%49 W · 107 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1371…1097backed Yes | 24c | 502.66$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$380.46 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.19per pick | 21cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 55c | 501.02$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.78 | 167 | 50.3%84 W · 83 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x770a…9e6dbacked Yes | 51c | 500.44$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.16 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 41c | 464.7$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.35 | 217 | 32.3%70 W · 147 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3423…fe57backed Yes | 41c | 462.13$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.69 | 508 | 28.3%144 W · 364 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…0d4ebacked Yes | 33c | 449.61$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.42 | 140 | 50%70 W · 70 L | +8.7wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d5…87cfbacked Yes | 43c | 448.81$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.84 | 564 | 29.8%168 W · 396 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x713b…f43cbacked Yes | 47c | 424$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.33 | 105 | 36.2%38 W · 67 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x986d…b351backed Yes | 35c | 400$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdea3…2266backed Yes | 55c | 400$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.54 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -27%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7413…4b09backed Yes | 16c | 396$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330.84 | 798 | 11.3%90 W · 708 L | +30.0wins | +0.04per pick | 8cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x090a…0fa6backed No | 65c | 376.33$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.19 | 115 | 58.3%67 W · 48 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce39…c181backed Yes | 52c | 343.11$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.19 | 69 | 21.7%15 W · 54 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…0861backed Yes | 20c | 321.85$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.1 | 880 | 18.6%164 W · 716 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…726fbacked No | 21c | 303.81$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.73 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeba1…44dfbacked Yes | 33c | 300$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.17 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc44a…0f0ebacked Yes | 50c | 299.99$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151 | 173 | 35.3%61 W · 112 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x671a…2f1ebacked No | 73c | 289$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.83 | 131 | 61.8%81 W · 50 L | +6.2wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 39c | 268.96$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.59 | 1,045 | 13.6%142 W · 903 L | +37.8wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9df3…ddfcbacked Yes | 46c | 263.2$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.2 | 348 | 33.3%116 W · 232 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed No | 52c | 241.5$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.04 | 292 | 25%73 W · 219 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 76c | 227.47$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.72 | 104 | 38.5%40 W · 64 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc36…8542backed Yes | 30c | 219.44$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.44 | 232 | 22.4%52 W · 180 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…643fbacked Yes | 28c | 217.12$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.15 | 95 | 15.8%15 W · 80 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3a9…ab36backed Yes | 43c | 216.35$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.27 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.12per pick | 35cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3758…5c70backed Yes | 41c | 204.23$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.54 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 64c | 201.7$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.5 | 126 | 42.9%54 W · 72 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd021…d89dbacked Yes | 12c | 200$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.14per pick | 22cpaid | +120.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 53c | 192.72$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.61 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 72c | 187.04$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.73 | 107 | 46.7%50 W · 57 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 75c | 187$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.95 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x998b…db96backed No | 55c | 182.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.16 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.15per pick | 24cpaid | -69.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 47c | 175$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.55 | 241 | 55.6%134 W · 107 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c5…e133backed Yes | 53c | 175$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.25 | 71 | 32.4%23 W · 48 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0862…9a02backed Yes | 25c | 175$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.5 | 111 | 24.3%27 W · 84 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf142…2f8abacked No | 77c | 167.4$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.9 | 70 | 42.9%30 W · 40 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe23d…3c72backed Yes | 47c | 159.99$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.79 | 202 | 26.7%54 W · 148 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6be9…3493backed Yes | 36c | 158.8$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.42 | 1,067 | 8.3%89 W · 978 L | +28.9wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbdb9…1418backed Yes | 50c | 158.61$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.64 | 259 | 44.4%115 W · 144 L | +10.3wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +21%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa04a…7aecbacked Yes | 20c | 151.43$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.43 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 19cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe43d…3978backed Yes | 19c | 150$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.5 | 200 | 25%50 W · 150 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ac6…0465backed Yes | 70c | 147.95$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.73 | 51 | 56.9%29 W · 22 L | +4.8wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6e82…77acbacked Yes | 11c | 142.75$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.05 | 159 | 25.2%40 W · 119 L | +8.6wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 57c | 142$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.87 | 144 | 51.4%74 W · 70 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff9…1e60backed No | 55c | 141.59$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.2 | 103 | 63.1%65 W · 38 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2b…cadfbacked Yes | 46c | 140.18$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.3 | 207 | 23.7%49 W · 158 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2d7…e3b7backed No | 42c | 136.71$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.68 | 316 | 24.7%78 W · 238 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3678…6459backed Yes | 77c | 130.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.25 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6d3…1a2abacked Yes | 49c | 125$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.91 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 49c | 123.92$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.1 | 101 | 43.6%44 W · 57 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbf0…fdbebacked Yes | 52c | 123$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.04 | 205 | 32.7%67 W · 138 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ce0…82d6backed Yes | 51c | 120$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.4 | 42 | 26.2%11 W · 31 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x11f8…1c4ebacked No | 49c | 119.06$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.73 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x070f…8b8abacked Yes | 77c | 118.98$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.08 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 42c | 117.87$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.12 | 287 | 23.7%68 W · 219 L | -46.5wins | -0.16per pick | 40cpaid | -63%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe827…5209backed Yes | 49c | 115.38$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.84 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 73c | 115.33$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.71 | 118 | 47.5%56 W · 62 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 13 to July 15, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from July 13 to July 15, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from July 13 to July 15, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from July 13 to July 15, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from July 13 to July 15, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from July 13 to July 15, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.