Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from July 13 to July 15, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb6ebb16d49cd54dc7f36f04fd54eb293a48fbf7aa25b893f1ca145308254ffd6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $173,641
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $174,030
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $173,641 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 265 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes | 11c | 13,000$1,410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,410 | 634 | 14.8%94 W · 540 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7505…2978backed No | 73c | 6,955$5,090 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,864.91 | 169 | 41.4%70 W · 99 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8565…0c43backed No | 54c | 5,995$3,260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,735.5 | 706 | 16.4%116 W · 590 L | -13.6wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -29%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cc…f09bbacked Yes | 4c | 5,304$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.29 | 140 | 37.1%52 W · 88 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42b8…1305backed No | 28c | 4,580$1,289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,290.16 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | +4.1wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x74ff…be5bbacked No | 38c | 3,045$1,144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,901.17 | 1,001 | 10.5%105 W · 896 L | -30.9wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes | 37c | 2,937$1,083 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,082.67 | 535 | 22.6%121 W · 414 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d5…87cfbacked No | 41c | 2,392$979 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,413.14 | 564 | 29.8%168 W · 396 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3eed…2050backed No | 44c | 2,239$995 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,243.88 | 106 | 29.2%31 W · 75 L | -5.1wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce40…da67backed Yes | 19c | 2,148$404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$403.93 | 538 | 17.3%93 W · 445 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04a2…e16cbacked Yes | 46c | 2,030$944 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$943.71 | 638 | 21.5%137 W · 501 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f66…b986backed Yes | 18c | 1,929$352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$352.31 | 568 | 17.4%99 W · 469 L | +18.3wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes | 47c | 1,915$899 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$899.15 | 572 | 22%126 W · 446 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -42%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x555c…c64dbacked No | 71c | 1,880$1,333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$547.15 | 143 | 32.9%47 W · 96 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1359…0c0dbacked Yes | 47c | 1,823$854 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$854.45 | 59 | 25.4%15 W · 44 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 25c | 1,706$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,286.21 | 189 | 49.2%93 W · 96 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 54c | 1,633$885 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$747.97 | 208 | 57.2%119 W · 89 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x038b…afc4backed Yes | 46c | 1,623$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 335 | 27.8%93 W · 242 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 33c | 1,526$511 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,015 | 388 | 48.5%188 W · 200 L | +16.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2cf…cd1fbacked Yes | 57c | 1,447$832 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$831.73 | 44 | 20.5%9 W · 35 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…d656backed No | 33c | 1,407$469 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$937.65 | 880 | 17.3%152 W · 728 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed No | 43c | 1,357$588 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$769.43 | 1,782 | 7.4%132 W · 1,650 L | -23.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 41c | 1,237$509 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$727.86 | 101 | 51.5%52 W · 49 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 51c | 1,214$625 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$589.3 | 221 | 60.2%133 W · 88 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8288…5519backed Yes | 44c | 1,199$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$529.7 | 159 | 29.6%47 W · 112 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a8a…4abdbacked Yes | 50c | 1,188$588 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$588.45 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed Yes | 41c | 1,175$484 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$483.92 | 412 | 30.8%127 W · 285 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 12c | 1,160$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.6 | 1,045 | 13.6%142 W · 903 L | +37.8wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35f3…cfd0backed Yes | 54c | 1,139$610 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$610.12 | 437 | 19.7%86 W · 351 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa855…bc16backed Yes | 76c | 1,048$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 25cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5f5…e714backed No | 80c | 1,000$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 83 | 24.1%20 W · 63 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc21e…e6d3backed No | 58c | 956.75$553 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$404.03 | 144 | 27.1%39 W · 105 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 50c | 951.05$471 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470.85 | 768 | 21.7%167 W · 601 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x881a…ccccbacked No | 16c | 902.83$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$755.68 | 132 | 35.6%47 W · 85 L | +10.5wins | +0.08per pick | 28cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3335…fbd6backed No | 30c | 882.96$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$618.07 | 85 | 32.9%28 W · 57 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18a0…dea8backed No | 32c | 818.84$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$556.73 | 576 | 21.2%122 W · 454 L | +9.9wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf257…1950backed No | 55c | 802.93$439 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$364.23 | 424 | 24.5%104 W · 320 L | -13.9wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 13c | 801.25$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 846 | 16.4%139 W · 707 L | +24.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa230…1cdbbacked Yes | 43c | 781.67$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.71 | 105 | 21.9%23 W · 82 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x732f…201ebacked Yes | 41c | 774.39$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.64 | 397 | 23.2%92 W · 305 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 39c | 716.53$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.45 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 11c | 700.37$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$626.1 | 107 | 56.1%60 W · 47 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf142…2f8abacked No | 43c | 696.19$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$394.87 | 70 | 42.9%30 W · 40 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 59c | 681.66$399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.49 | 101 | 46.5%47 W · 54 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…d801backed Yes | 50c | 649.99$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325 | 230 | 19.1%44 W · 186 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…0861backed No | 26c | 634.33$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$470.04 | 880 | 18.6%164 W · 716 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 58c | 616.23$359 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.34 | 309 | 55%170 W · 139 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeca2…20e6backed Yes | 73c | 604.2$441 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440.86 | 72 | 51.4%37 W · 35 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2eef…eacabacked Yes | 58c | 599.95$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345.28 | 214 | 29.9%64 W · 150 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -28%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x952b…c92fbacked Yes | 62c | 590.92$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$365.28 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9df3…ddfcbacked No | 44c | 590.71$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327.93 | 348 | 33.3%116 W · 232 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 31c | 590.04$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.86 | 217 | 32.3%70 W · 147 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x288d…00eabacked Yes | 56c | 580.49$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.68 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x590e…e43dbacked Yes | 65c | 574.83$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$371.84 | 192 | 15.6%30 W · 162 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ca…450abacked No | 45c | 571.41$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316.12 | 312 | 17.3%54 W · 258 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5381…1ec5backed No | 21c | 554.99$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$438.44 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf77…1488backed Yes | 40c | 547.89$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.01 | 44 | 18.2%8 W · 36 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d06…b2eabacked Yes | 75c | 541.94$406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$406 | 67 | 44.8%30 W · 37 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x713b…f43cbacked Yes | 58c | 533.81$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.17 | 105 | 36.2%38 W · 67 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3742…150cbacked Yes | 57c | 525.67$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.86 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -2.6wins | -0.26per pick | 66cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa2d7…e3b7backed Yes | 33c | 504.98$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.77 | 316 | 24.7%78 W · 238 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4645…59babacked No | 48c | 500$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7789…a280backed No | 77c | 500$384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.65 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa0ce…f82bbacked No | 9c | 485.83$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$442.11 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…0d4ebacked Yes | 54c | 484.13$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.17 | 140 | 50%70 W · 70 L | +8.7wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x770a…9e6dbacked Yes | 43c | 481$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.99 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3949…4c45backed Yes | 61c | 472$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.66 | 71 | 40.8%29 W · 42 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0acf…edf9backed Yes | 48c | 469.32$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.91 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3423…fe57backed Yes | 52c | 462.13$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.46 | 508 | 28.3%144 W · 364 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed Yes | 30c | 453.24$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.83 | 751 | 22.2%167 W · 584 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c5…e133backed Yes | 66c | 451$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.13 | 71 | 32.4%23 W · 48 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 35c | 446.24$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.54 | 125 | 48%60 W · 65 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a77…f859backed No | 19c | 437.63$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$356.19 | 153 | 12.4%19 W · 134 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 9cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 71c | 427.05$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.15 | 104 | 38.5%40 W · 64 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd021…d89dbacked Yes | 50c | 410.61$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.37 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.14per pick | 22cpaid | +120.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e3babacked Yes | 45c | 401.58$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.71 | 325 | 29.2%95 W · 230 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdea3…2266backed Yes | 31c | 400$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.9 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -27%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x090a…0fa6backed No | 35c | 374.62$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.12 | 115 | 58.3%67 W · 48 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18b0…4486backed Yes | 54c | 373.55$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8bc…ec51backed Yes | 21c | 366.64$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.29 | 160 | 23.1%37 W · 123 L | +11.0wins | +0.07per pick | 16cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 40c | 347.86$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.42 | 107 | 46.7%50 W · 57 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc36…8542backed Yes | 40c | 343.99$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139 | 232 | 22.4%52 W · 180 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked No | 14c | 342.49$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.81 | 272 | 24.3%66 W · 206 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd68…0261backed Yes | 53c | 340.09$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.79 | 199 | 30.7%61 W · 138 L | +13.6wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 33c | 304.61$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.09 | 126 | 42.9%54 W · 72 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dbf…b9edbacked Yes | 66c | 303.55$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +2.0wins | +0.10per pick | 35cpaid | +71.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d77…7004backed Yes | 13c | 300$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 38 | 15.8%6 W · 32 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -38%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…423abacked Yes | 34c | 296.36$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 149 | 23.5%35 W · 114 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd13d…a958backed Yes | 80c | 280.55$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4262…0ef2backed Yes | 36c | 279.63$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.81 | 51 | 19.6%10 W · 41 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +69.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3758…5c70backed Yes | 57c | 270.7$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.46 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f00…487fbacked Yes | 14c | 270.34$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.85 | 280 | 16.4%46 W · 234 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x913f…c676backed No | 44c | 261.57$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.75 | 100 | 43%43 W · 57 L | -7.6wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc44a…0f0ebacked No | 64c | 260.98$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.75 | 173 | 35.3%61 W · 112 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4f…c2f1backed Yes | 22c | 259.23$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.08 | 147 | 51%75 W · 72 L | +18.0wins | +0.12per pick | 39cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f8…97b3backed Yes | 63c | 252.69$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 221 | 42.5%94 W · 127 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe62e…cc81backed Yes | 54c | 240.62$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 167 | 41.3%69 W · 98 L | -5.6wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b0a…0190backed No | 26c | 240.32$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.77 | 78 | 20.5%16 W · 62 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94d0…1ccdbacked Yes | 69c | 239.98$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.59 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 40c | 239.5$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.16 | 167 | 50.3%84 W · 83 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from July 13 to July 15, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from July 13 to July 15, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from July 13 to July 15, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 13 to July 15, 2026?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from July 13 to July 15, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from July 13 to July 15, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.