Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5c1a355c2bad217948ed169464e9e813e9172b9715ccbffc1a81b73cfb231eb5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $302,621
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $249,531
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $302,621 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x689a…779ebacked Yes | 0c | 23,981$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.41 | 225 | 9.8%22 W · 203 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -79.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf01e…51cbbacked Yes | 0c | 23,480$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.72 | 246 | 17.5%43 W · 203 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes | 2c | 12,288$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.58 | 1,001 | 10.5%105 W · 896 L | -30.9wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07cf…a9fabacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 327 | 16.8%55 W · 272 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8c4…848dbacked Yes | 0c | 8,067$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.17 | 609 | 7.7%47 W · 562 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 3c | 8,066$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.96 | 1,782 | 7.4%132 W · 1,650 L | -23.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa639…7135backed Yes | 8c | 7,691$627 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$626.86 | 48 | 2.1%1 W · 47 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 7cpaid | -96%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17f1…0528backed Yes | 2c | 5,937$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.28 | 514 | 10.5%54 W · 460 L | +17.3wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde0f…57c1backed Yes | 1c | 5,647$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.48 | 217 | 6%13 W · 204 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe243…af59backed Yes | 2c | 5,000$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 364 | 11%40 W · 324 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked Yes | 1c | 4,649$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.95 | 456 | 8.3%38 W · 418 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 4c | 4,573$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.54 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6df5…6430backed Yes | 0c | 4,500$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 455 | 11.6%53 W · 402 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | +104.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes | 8c | 4,406$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.04 | 535 | 22.6%121 W · 414 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2d7…e3b7backed Yes | 7c | 4,114$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.87 | 316 | 24.7%78 W · 238 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7413…4b09backed Yes | 1c | 3,271$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.05 | 798 | 11.3%90 W · 708 L | +30.0wins | +0.04per pick | 8cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8eab…a56dbacked Yes | 0c | 3,145$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.12 | 278 | 5%14 W · 264 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -89.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdc0…2041backed Yes | 1c | 3,000$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 42 | 26.2%11 W · 31 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +91.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f2…1762backed Yes | 10c | 2,477$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.84 | 88 | 12.5%11 W · 77 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x732f…201ebacked Yes | 7c | 2,300$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.4 | 397 | 23.2%92 W · 305 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 2,114$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.87 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeff9…05fdbacked Yes | 7c | 2,000$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 164 | 27.4%45 W · 119 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98d6…51dcbacked Yes | 7c | 1,889$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.29 | 215 | 21.9%47 W · 168 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x828e…c21bbacked Yes | 2c | 1,653$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.63 | 274 | 17.5%48 W · 226 L | +11.0wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6be9…3493backed Yes | 2c | 1,653$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.28 | 1,067 | 8.3%89 W · 978 L | +28.9wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e44…a6bebacked Yes | 11c | 1,502$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.37 | 83 | 21.7%18 W · 65 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ce0…5f11backed Yes | 1c | 1,448$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 427 | 19.2%82 W · 345 L | +23.3wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x04a2…e16cbacked Yes | 8c | 1,448$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.29 | 638 | 21.5%137 W · 501 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe089…ad3abacked Yes | 8c | 1,423$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.37 | 183 | 4.4%8 W · 175 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | +235.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6869…0484backed Yes | 3c | 1,300$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 121 | 17.4%21 W · 100 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…0861backed Yes | 6c | 1,096$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.61 | 880 | 18.6%164 W · 716 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18a0…dea8backed Yes | 7c | 1,036$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.28 | 576 | 21.2%122 W · 454 L | +9.9wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…d656backed Yes | 7c | 1,032$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.97 | 880 | 17.3%152 W · 728 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6640…e07abacked Yes | 7c | 1,000$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.38 | 781 | 11.3%88 W · 693 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5040…96cfbacked Yes | 2c | 1,000$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.94 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2eef…eacabacked Yes | 3c | 1,000$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.37 | 214 | 29.9%64 W · 150 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -28%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90f1…72c6backed Yes | 1c | 999.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 624 | 12.3%77 W · 547 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8565…0c43backed Yes | 7c | 999.71$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.27 | 706 | 16.4%116 W · 590 L | -13.6wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -29%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf61f…1cf3backed Yes | 8c | 961.81$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.88 | 129 | 19.4%25 W · 104 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x254a…bc44backed Yes | 6c | 833.32$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | -5.6wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked Yes | 3c | 774.2$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.95 | 121 | 6.6%8 W · 113 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 4c | 739.91$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.39 | 1,045 | 13.6%142 W · 903 L | +37.8wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 3c | 721.49$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.92 | 388 | 48.5%188 W · 200 L | +16.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b30…068abacked Yes | 7c | 716.65$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.45 | 329 | 17%56 W · 273 L | +13.7wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x790e…989bbacked Yes | 5c | 711.64$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.57 | 67 | 22.4%15 W · 52 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 5c | 709.84$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.49 | 491 | 6.7%33 W · 458 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb5a…1537backed Yes | 7c | 707.01$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.4 | 159 | 18.9%30 W · 129 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2749…06edbacked Yes | 6c | 678.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.31 | 74 | 32.4%24 W · 50 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77d5…eacebacked Yes | 2c | 650.17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.06 | 100 | 8%8 W · 92 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 5cpaid | +74.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec07…ca80backed Yes | 6c | 616.83$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.01 | 54 | 18.5%10 W · 44 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | +58.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa50…3ed5backed Yes | 4c | 586.94$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 653 | 11%72 W · 581 L | +10.8wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bcc…8d7ebacked Yes | 3c | 522.89$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.98 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 7c | 513.3$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.53 | 691 | 5.5%38 W · 653 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x071d…07efbacked Yes | 6c | 505.06$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.1 | 1,038 | 11.1%115 W · 923 L | +4.7wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac32…6e3bbacked Yes | 7c | 504.97$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.35 | 49 | 20.4%10 W · 39 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 14cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4473…28adbacked Yes | 9c | 499.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 184 | 19%35 W · 149 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe827…5209backed Yes | 3c | 411.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2194…3a90backed Yes | 4c | 400$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 118 | 26.3%31 W · 87 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecf…af11backed Yes | 3c | 400$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 6c | 398.8$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.93 | 407 | 19.7%80 W · 327 L | -18.4wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef24…a44dbacked Yes | 4c | 378.27$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.88 | 171 | 26.9%46 W · 125 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 9c | 329.12$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.47 | 395 | 18.7%74 W · 321 L | -57.0wins | -0.14per pick | 33cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x6e82…77acbacked Yes | 3c | 306.72$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 159 | 25.2%40 W · 119 L | +8.6wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeab1…8121backed Yes | 6c | 288$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.66 | 488 | 19.3%94 W · 394 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2b…cadfbacked Yes | 4c | 280$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 207 | 23.7%49 W · 158 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x409c…9ac8backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 121 | 24%29 W · 92 L | +7.9wins | +0.07per pick | 17cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7061…9233backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.