TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on April 24?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$43,309
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$28,561

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,309 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 88 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6bb6…2acabacked Yes1c8,283$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.6460%0 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3d76…4801backed Yes3c1,185$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.9140%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes28c710.97$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.485,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x21b7…c861backed Yes17c664.74$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.110%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe752…2200backed Yes4c472.12$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.981,20425.3%305 W · 899 L+18.2wins+0.02per pick24cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd661…2750backed Yes20c432.06$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.7888028.9%254 W · 626 L-2.9wins0.00per pick29cpaid-13.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1941…deeabacked Yes22c410.18$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.821,07236.6%392 W · 680 L+25.9wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+0.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x06f1…c46fbacked Yes17c383.01$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.66922.2%2 W · 7 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick18cpaid-43.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6868…5198backed Yes12c374.68$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.291,40127.3%383 W · 1,018 L+69.5wins+0.05per pick22cpaid+18.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No74c362.75$268 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.1712,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xea6b…5ac2backed No71c340.08$243 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.2253437.3%199 W · 335 L-29.9wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-22.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x339e…c5fbbacked Yes28c326.61$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.6912348%59 W · 64 L+13.0wins+0.11per pick37cpaid+24.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x7b20…bc23backed No64c312$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.3281165.8%534 W · 277 L-37.1wins-0.05per pick70cpaid-6.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd2fc…5bd4backed Yes28c311.67$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.9138633.4%129 W · 257 L-0.9wins0.00per pick34cpaid-7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes12c306$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.2317,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b9e…0948backed Yes35c283.81$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.6210845.4%49 W · 59 L+4.3wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+0.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3886…b492backed Yes11c280.13$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.8156118.4%103 W · 458 L-6.6wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-8.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a52…baafbacked Yes32c261.46$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.693836.8%14 W · 24 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x86b1…c094backed Yes23c242.74$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.9527328.6%78 W · 195 L-10.4wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-34.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc432…8562backed Yes5c211$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.5540%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0759…a93dbacked Yes30c200$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$601118.2%2 W · 9 L-1.4wins-0.12per pick31cpaid-71.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf4c3…d152backed Yes10c199.99$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203435.3%12 W · 22 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick33cpaid-9.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes11c199.99$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.11,32232.2%426 W · 896 L-43.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes13c199.29$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.577,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes15c190.39$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.769520%139 W · 556 L-44.4wins-0.06per pick26cpaid-53.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa09d…af80backed Yes15c178.09$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.4621150.7%107 W · 104 L+6.1wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+23.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4829…97ebbacked Yes16c175.25$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.4739951.1%204 W · 195 L+14.0wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+14.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8bac…cf49backed Yes13c165.74$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.221,08929.7%323 W · 766 L+36.6wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-1.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf4ad…d00bbacked Yes19c162.53$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.8849038.8%190 W · 300 L+24.4wins+0.05per pick34cpaid+0.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2e16…27c0backed Yes30c152.56$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.2829748.5%144 W · 153 L+18.2wins+0.06per pick42cpaid+24.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0996…598dbacked No67c151.42$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.2748743.7%213 W · 274 L-9.5wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-9.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x40eb…ade9backed Yes20c150.78$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.9949547.1%233 W · 262 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+12.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0020…16b9backed Yes13c150.03$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2018333.3%61 W · 122 L-17.7wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-33.2%equal weight41-0.09 edge/pick
0x4c44…115fbacked No69c149.18$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.971163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.8wins+0.16per pick48cpaid+33.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No75c147.83$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.584,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9775…b70dbacked Yes17c139.7$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.146248.4%30 W · 32 L-3.4wins-0.05per pick54cpaid-13.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3910…ba74backed Yes13c135.4$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.2717231.4%54 W · 118 L+6.4wins+0.04per pick28cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No73c131$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.089,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfd12…7f29backed Yes11c129.99$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.215437.7%58 W · 96 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe73c…dd15backed Yes12c128.79$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15378.1%3 W · 34 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-55.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe52c…016abacked Yes32c122.96$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.4416631.9%53 W · 113 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick30cpaid+9.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6de…9452backed Yes21c114.68$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.948428.6%24 W · 60 L+0.3wins0.00per pick28cpaid-8.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x425d…6cb0backed Yes34c113.32$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.2925344.7%113 W · 140 L-5.7wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-10.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf0bd…fe2abacked Yes30c108.25$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.5510642.5%45 W · 61 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick44cpaid+1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes27c100.04$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.497,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xa493…1b55backed Yes28c100$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2826933.1%89 W · 180 L+21.8wins+0.08per pick25cpaid+71.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x28a1…69a1backed Yes15c100$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155040%20 W · 30 L-3.1wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-35.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9733…be31backed Yes35c96.6$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.967250%36 W · 36 L+4.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-1.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2117…9bedbacked Yes30c93.03$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.146946.4%32 W · 37 L-4.1wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-16.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xef60…d6c2backed Yes25c92.5$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.1328517.9%51 W · 234 L-9.5wins-0.03per pick21cpaid-14.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3334…69b0backed No79c91.33$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.9746444.4%206 W · 258 L-18.2wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-12.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x472a…2dadbacked Yes29c90$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.130%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9be9…7017backed Yes20c79.89$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.9965627.4%180 W · 476 L+7.1wins+0.01per pick26cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfc0b…a782backed Yes27c77.62$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.3351537.5%193 W · 322 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x354c…81a8backed Yes18c72.15$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.8510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ce3…1689backed Yes23c71.99$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.6247432.5%154 W · 320 L+20.2wins+0.04per pick28cpaid+12.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1d83…d948backed Yes29c67.41$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.55944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-37%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes16c66.17$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.3712,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xb4c1…bec3backed Yes27c64.98$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.8611644%51 W · 65 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x75b0…e7b7backed No69c60$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.61,58578.5%1,244 W · 341 L+39.7wins+0.03per pick76cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x327f…2c55backed Yes35c53.43$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.72020%4 W · 16 L-1.9wins-0.09per pick29cpaid-25.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb49f…1821backed No74c51.8$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.571,06153.2%564 W · 497 L+33.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x64f9…cf15backed No70c50$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15944.4%4 W · 5 L-1.7wins-0.19per pick63cpaid-37.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5efb…5e3bbacked Yes30c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152846.4%13 W · 15 L+3.3wins+0.12per pick35cpaid+47%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x375d…62c5backed Yes29c49.99$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.58325.3%21 W · 62 L-5.2wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-23.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x470b…c331backed Yes25c47.17$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.7914744.2%65 W · 82 L-5.5wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-5.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3e49…36a1backed Yes29c47.16$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.683020%6 W · 24 L-5.1wins-0.17per pick37cpaid-61.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xeb86…fb51backed Yes43c46.21$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.663511.4%4 W · 31 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick14cpaid-42.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe25c…7908backed Yes30c45.57$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.7922857.5%131 W · 97 L+6.6wins+0.03per pick55cpaid-6.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc0fb…2acbbacked Yes43c43.97$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.8620%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8327…577dbacked Yes33c41.24$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.779552.6%50 W · 45 L+5.6wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+1.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6ca6…4b74backed Yes41c40.35$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.7211833.1%39 W · 79 L-7.7wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-26%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xdd33…5452backed Yes31c38.05$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.6811140.5%45 W · 66 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-7.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6e2e…d8a9backed No72c37.57$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.577979.7%63 W · 16 L+9.4wins+0.12per pick68cpaid+20.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x4786…ff95backed No78c35.76$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.781060%6 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes39c35.68$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.999949.5%495 W · 504 L+1.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid+2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe798…5204backed No71c32.95$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.552142.9%9 W · 12 L-4.2wins-0.20per pick63cpaid-30.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x822f…c545backed Yes31c32.57$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.26296.9%2 W · 27 L-2.7wins-0.09per pick16cpaid-70.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xeb54…d452backed No64c31$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.164,52565.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L-134.0wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4dd0…3df2backed No72c30.03$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.419147.3%43 W · 48 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick50cpaid+0.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3887…9496backed No73c27.13$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.324370%170 W · 73 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick69cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6719…a34dbacked No72c26.99$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.559129.7%27 W · 64 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick29cpaid+19.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x855e…de25backed No73c26.76$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.34643.5%20 W · 26 L-7.7wins-0.17per pick60cpaid-31.5%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x9aa9…1a52backed No76c25.8$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.291384.6%11 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.12per pick73cpaid+14.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9b3a…b9e6backed No67c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.61675%12 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.07per pick68cpaid+2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0d34…cd67backed No72c19.9$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.537050%35 W · 35 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x411e…9184backed No78c18.81$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.141266.7%8 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.08per pick59cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6240…c294backed No70c18.44$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.539462.8%59 W · 35 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick65cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.