Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on April 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd11a11d6934adb0c19000ac4d7377cf7511b8b39bb420efde84176bd41245ee9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $43,309
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,561
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,309 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 88 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6bb6…2acabacked Yes | 1c | 8,283$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.64 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d76…4801backed Yes | 3c | 1,185$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.91 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 28c | 710.97$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.48 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21b7…c861backed Yes | 17c | 664.74$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 4c | 472.12$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 20c | 432.06$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.78 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 22c | 410.18$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.82 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06f1…c46fbacked Yes | 17c | 383.01$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.66 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 12c | 374.68$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.29 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 74c | 362.75$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.17 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea6b…5ac2backed No | 71c | 340.08$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.22 | 534 | 37.3%199 W · 335 L | -29.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x339e…c5fbbacked Yes | 28c | 326.61$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.69 | 123 | 48%59 W · 64 L | +13.0wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 64c | 312$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.32 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd2fc…5bd4backed Yes | 28c | 311.67$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.91 | 386 | 33.4%129 W · 257 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 12c | 306$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.23 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b9e…0948backed Yes | 35c | 283.81$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.62 | 108 | 45.4%49 W · 59 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3886…b492backed Yes | 11c | 280.13$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.81 | 561 | 18.4%103 W · 458 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a52…baafbacked Yes | 32c | 261.46$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.69 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed Yes | 23c | 242.74$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.95 | 273 | 28.6%78 W · 195 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc432…8562backed Yes | 5c | 211$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0759…a93dbacked Yes | 30c | 200$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 31cpaid | -71.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4c3…d152backed Yes | 10c | 199.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 11c | 199.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.1 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 13c | 199.29$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.57 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes | 15c | 190.39$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.7 | 695 | 20%139 W · 556 L | -44.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa09d…af80backed Yes | 15c | 178.09$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.46 | 211 | 50.7%107 W · 104 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4829…97ebbacked Yes | 16c | 175.25$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.47 | 399 | 51.1%204 W · 195 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 13c | 165.74$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.22 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked Yes | 19c | 162.53$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.88 | 490 | 38.8%190 W · 300 L | +24.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e16…27c0backed Yes | 30c | 152.56$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.28 | 297 | 48.5%144 W · 153 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0996…598dbacked No | 67c | 151.42$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.27 | 487 | 43.7%213 W · 274 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 20c | 150.78$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0020…16b9backed Yes | 13c | 150.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 183 | 33.3%61 W · 122 L | -17.7wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4c44…115fbacked No | 69c | 149.18$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.97 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 75c | 147.83$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.58 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9775…b70dbacked Yes | 17c | 139.7$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.14 | 62 | 48.4%30 W · 32 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3910…ba74backed Yes | 13c | 135.4$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.27 | 172 | 31.4%54 W · 118 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 73c | 131$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.08 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd12…7f29backed Yes | 11c | 129.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 154 | 37.7%58 W · 96 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe73c…dd15backed Yes | 12c | 128.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 37 | 8.1%3 W · 34 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe52c…016abacked Yes | 32c | 122.96$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.44 | 166 | 31.9%53 W · 113 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6de…9452backed Yes | 21c | 114.68$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.94 | 84 | 28.6%24 W · 60 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x425d…6cb0backed Yes | 34c | 113.32$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.29 | 253 | 44.7%113 W · 140 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0bd…fe2abacked Yes | 30c | 108.25$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.55 | 106 | 42.5%45 W · 61 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 27c | 100.04$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.49 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa493…1b55backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 269 | 33.1%89 W · 180 L | +21.8wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +71.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x28a1…69a1backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9733…be31backed Yes | 35c | 96.6$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.96 | 72 | 50%36 W · 36 L | +4.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2117…9bedbacked Yes | 30c | 93.03$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.14 | 69 | 46.4%32 W · 37 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef60…d6c2backed Yes | 25c | 92.5$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.13 | 285 | 17.9%51 W · 234 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3334…69b0backed No | 79c | 91.33$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.97 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x472a…2dadbacked Yes | 29c | 90$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.1 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…7017backed Yes | 20c | 79.89$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 656 | 27.4%180 W · 476 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0b…a782backed Yes | 27c | 77.62$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.33 | 515 | 37.5%193 W · 322 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x354c…81a8backed Yes | 18c | 72.15$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 23c | 71.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.62 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d83…d948backed Yes | 29c | 67.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.55 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -37%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 16c | 66.17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c1…bec3backed Yes | 27c | 64.98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.86 | 116 | 44%51 W · 65 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 69c | 60$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x327f…2c55backed Yes | 35c | 53.43$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed No | 74c | 51.8$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.57 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64f9…cf15backed No | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 63cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5efb…5e3bbacked Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +3.3wins | +0.12per pick | 35cpaid | +47%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x375d…62c5backed Yes | 29c | 49.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 83 | 25.3%21 W · 62 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x470b…c331backed Yes | 25c | 47.17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.79 | 147 | 44.2%65 W · 82 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e49…36a1backed Yes | 29c | 47.16$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | -5.1wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xeb86…fb51backed Yes | 43c | 46.21$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.66 | 35 | 11.4%4 W · 31 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe25c…7908backed Yes | 30c | 45.57$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.79 | 228 | 57.5%131 W · 97 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0fb…2acbbacked Yes | 43c | 43.97$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.86 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8327…577dbacked Yes | 33c | 41.24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.77 | 95 | 52.6%50 W · 45 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca6…4b74backed Yes | 41c | 40.35$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.72 | 118 | 33.1%39 W · 79 L | -7.7wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -26%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd33…5452backed Yes | 31c | 38.05$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.68 | 111 | 40.5%45 W · 66 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e2e…d8a9backed No | 72c | 37.57$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.57 | 79 | 79.7%63 W · 16 L | +9.4wins | +0.12per pick | 68cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4786…ff95backed No | 78c | 35.76$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 39c | 35.68$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe798…5204backed No | 71c | 32.95$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.55 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -4.2wins | -0.20per pick | 63cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x822f…c545backed Yes | 31c | 32.57$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 29 | 6.9%2 W · 27 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 16cpaid | -70.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 64c | 31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4dd0…3df2backed No | 72c | 30.03$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.41 | 91 | 47.3%43 W · 48 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3887…9496backed No | 73c | 27.13$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.3 | 243 | 70%170 W · 73 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6719…a34dbacked No | 72c | 26.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.55 | 91 | 29.7%27 W · 64 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x855e…de25backed No | 73c | 26.76$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.3 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | -7.7wins | -0.17per pick | 60cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa9…1a52backed No | 76c | 25.8$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.29 | 13 | 84.6%11 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 73cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b3a…b9e6backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d34…cd67backed No | 72c | 19.9$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.53 | 70 | 50%35 W · 35 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x411e…9184backed No | 78c | 18.81$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.14 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6240…c294backed No | 70c | 18.44$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.53 | 94 | 62.8%59 W · 35 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on April 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 16°C on April 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on April 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on April 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on April 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on April 24?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on April 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on April 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C or higher on April 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.