Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on April 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6178e545b2cfa0227ee2e5b964dc2dc0142c60d06248526c44bb488e9c0fd3db
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,019
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,414
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,019 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 131 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe25c…7908backed Yes | 70c | 1,642$1,150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$492.39 | 228 | 57.5%131 W · 97 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed Yes | 70c | 1,416$996 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420.11 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 67c | 775.42$519 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.54 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 56c | 678.87$381 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.33 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b9e…0948backed Yes | 57c | 671.4$384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.42 | 108 | 45.4%49 W · 59 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 18c | 608.03$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.7 | 695 | 20%139 W · 556 L | -44.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 52c | 478.69$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.96 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6260…6b21backed No | 14c | 402.07$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.07 | 45 | 11.1%5 W · 40 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 26c | 374.79$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.46 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e16…27c0backed No | 51c | 371.28$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.41 | 297 | 48.5%144 W · 153 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe019…f862backed Yes | 60c | 370.4$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.04 | 280 | 21.8%61 W · 219 L | +11.1wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 22c | 342.61$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.97 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 29c | 312.79$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.64 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 64c | 311.99$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.67 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a1…1d37backed No | 15c | 300$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 320 | 41.9%134 W · 186 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a3…ad9ebacked No | 68c | 296.48$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.14 | 160 | 46.3%74 W · 86 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed Yes | 35c | 227.54$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.61 | 273 | 28.6%78 W · 195 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e5b…292bbacked No | 11c | 204.71$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.74 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab0…9578backed No | 68c | 175.75$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.75 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3b…401ebacked No | 50c | 169.23$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.96 | 69 | 59.4%41 W · 28 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a7…9c23backed Yes | 36c | 152.4$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.28 | 178 | 38.8%69 W · 109 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 24c | 151.71$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.85 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1535…d77bbacked Yes | 31c | 149.11$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.89 | 71 | 43.7%31 W · 40 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf096…28a8backed Yes | 32c | 144.84$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.07 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 66c | 143.27$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.81 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea6b…5ac2backed No | 70c | 139.08$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.97 | 534 | 37.3%199 W · 335 L | -29.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…7017backed No | 11c | 133.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 656 | 27.4%180 W · 476 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa09d…af80backed Yes | 36c | 131.04$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.25 | 211 | 50.7%107 W · 104 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb00…5461backed Yes | 34c | 124.62$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.93 | 196 | 48.5%95 W · 101 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd12…7f29backed Yes | 34c | 119.99$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.49 | 154 | 37.7%58 W · 96 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x339e…c5fbbacked No | 30c | 118.14$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.76 | 123 | 48%59 W · 64 L | +13.0wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x06f1…c46fbacked No | 31c | 113.59$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.47 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 31c | 112.98$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.17 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x4a52…baafbacked No | 32c | 110.7$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.82 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0996…598dbacked No | 47c | 105.22$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.25 | 487 | 43.7%213 W · 274 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4829…97ebbacked Yes | 48c | 103.79$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.37 | 399 | 51.1%204 W · 195 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9733…be31backed Yes | 64c | 103.1$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.23 | 72 | 50%36 W · 36 L | +4.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa7d4…3a45backed Yes | 37c | 102.41$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.95 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 33c | 102.4$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.32 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x681f…02d0backed Yes | 43c | 101.95$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.56 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd721…57a7backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 451 | 27.1%122 W · 329 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked No | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4c3…d152backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x658b…84bfbacked No | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 204 | 45.1%92 W · 112 L | +14.8wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1546…778bbacked Yes | 30c | 99.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.99 | 354 | 29.9%106 W · 248 L | -17.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3886…b492backed Yes | 36c | 99.98$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.99 | 561 | 18.4%103 W · 458 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7d…9e7abacked Yes | 27c | 99.31$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.2 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2006…7e1bbacked No | 79c | 98.94$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.16 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -2.4wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked No | 63c | 95.07$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.98 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f46…76f5backed Yes | 37c | 92.24$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.53 | 301 | 31.9%96 W · 205 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83fd…b67fbacked Yes | 32c | 88.14$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.19 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x425d…6cb0backed Yes | 74c | 79.22$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.79 | 253 | 44.7%113 W · 140 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 39c | 78.78$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.25 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0b…a782backed Yes | 44c | 77.49$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.46 | 515 | 37.5%193 W · 322 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a03…84afbacked Yes | 34c | 77.38$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.07 | 369 | 30.6%113 W · 256 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85e8…9301backed Yes | 62c | 77.1$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.98 | 113 | 62.8%71 W · 42 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 31c | 75.33$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.98 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 64c | 74.88$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.86 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 64c | 74.69$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.92 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 64$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.05 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d46…b09bbacked No | 44c | 63.44$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.8 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -3.6wins | -0.13per pick | 54cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf694…24e3backed Yes | 33c | 62.49$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.87 | 111 | 29.7%33 W · 78 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff9b…6a02backed Yes | 36c | 60.71$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.84 | 158 | 34.2%54 W · 104 L | +8.8wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 76c | 60.52$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.06 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa65f…4329backed Yes | 35c | 59.49$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.93 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27fb…3f5ebacked No | 42c | 59.06$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 209 | 42.1%88 W · 121 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…10c3backed Yes | 50c | 58.91$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.27 | 402 | 42.5%171 W · 231 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x855e…de25backed No | 32c | 58.38$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.64 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | -7.7wins | -0.17per pick | 60cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x00ac…c678backed Yes | 33c | 56.55$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.89 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.11per pick | 31cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6de…9452backed Yes | 37c | 56.22$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.36 | 84 | 28.6%24 W · 60 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe88f…34cebacked Yes | 35c | 53.97$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.28 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e2…d768backed No | 53c | 53.82$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.62 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3910…ba74backed Yes | 36c | 51.47$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.74 | 172 | 31.4%54 W · 118 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c8f…de8abacked Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 166 | 26.5%44 W · 122 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x375d…62c5backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 83 | 25.3%21 W · 62 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5efb…5e3bbacked No | 26c | 49.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +3.3wins | +0.12per pick | 35cpaid | +47%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf13b…33d0backed Yes | 56c | 49.99$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 21c | 49.95$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.46 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c81…1b64backed Yes | 36c | 49.94$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.96 | 61 | 44.3%27 W · 34 L | +4.8wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x470b…c331backed Yes | 43c | 49.04$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.95 | 147 | 44.2%65 W · 82 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 32c | 49$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.32 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8327…577dbacked Yes | 42c | 48.98$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.41 | 95 | 52.6%50 W · 45 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb00f…3e60backed Yes | 47c | 47.35$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.1 | 79 | 55.7%44 W · 35 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 33c | 47.22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.7 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9a14…49d5backed Yes | 40c | 47$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.19 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 33c | 46.34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.18 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3334…69b0backed No | 62c | 45.76$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.19 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 75c | 44.77$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.77 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b66…db0abacked Yes | 38c | 44$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.26 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4dd0…3df2backed Yes | 48c | 43.78$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.59 | 91 | 47.3%43 W · 48 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 63c | 43.77$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.78 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 67c | 43.3$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.01 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01ca…2acabacked Yes | 34c | 42.49$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 89 | 22.5%20 W · 69 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0be4…51d3backed Yes | 39c | 41.64$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed No | 63c | 41.58$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.27 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 66c | 41.11$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.13 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2155…3428backed Yes | 62c | 39.43$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.12 | 188 | 45.2%85 W · 103 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf555…d480backed Yes | 62c | 39.03$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.87 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c83…e83ebacked Yes | 46c | 37.84$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.43 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +25%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on April 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 16°C on April 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on April 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on April 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on April 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on April 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on April 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on April 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C or higher on April 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.