TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on April 24?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$24,672
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$23,582

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,672 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 87 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe019…f862backed Yes22c1,105$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$240.1928021.8%61 W · 219 L+11.1wins+0.04per pick18cpaid+22.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1941…deeabacked Yes26c865.61$223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$222.71,07236.6%392 W · 680 L+25.9wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+0.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes13c786.31$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.7310,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd661…2750backed No79c499.61$395 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.3588028.9%254 W · 626 L-2.9wins0.00per pick29cpaid-13.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e7c…411abacked Yes25c432.32$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.281650%8 W · 8 L+1.4wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+38.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x04a3…3081backed Yes16c409.25$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.45742.9%3 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.14per pick29cpaid+5.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3ac5…852cbacked Yes26c395.67$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1042416.7%4 W · 20 L-2.3wins-0.10per pick26cpaid-35.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes28c361.86$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.6717,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7b20…bc23backed No64c307.39$197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.7481165.8%534 W · 277 L-37.1wins-0.05per pick70cpaid-6.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes23c306.9$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.6769520%139 W · 556 L-44.4wins-0.06per pick26cpaid-53.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0af2…ce86backed No79c303.26$241 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.714763.8%30 W · 17 L+6.5wins+0.14per pick50cpaid+26.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xdbae…1b30backed Yes25c289.17$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.0650%0 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1250…db19backed No68c284.21$193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.623458.8%20 W · 14 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked Yes16c267.05$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.713,47433.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L-175.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-28.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe1a7…9c23backed Yes21c256.82$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.3217838.8%69 W · 109 L+7.6wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+6.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc52e…65fbbacked Yes15c250$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.53823.7%9 W · 29 L-0.1wins0.00per pick24cpaid-13.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x997e…990dbacked Yes25c246.61$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.63540%2 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.16per pick24cpaid+66.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2490…11a3backed Yes13c238.61$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.747061.4%43 W · 27 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-10.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes13c230.81$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.025,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4829…97ebbacked Yes9c191.57$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.1939951.1%204 W · 195 L+14.0wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+14.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf0fb…b5ffbacked No80c191.08$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$391100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes18c188.68$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.7686420.1%174 W · 690 L+14.2wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-25.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b9e…0948backed No74c188.56$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.9210845.4%49 W · 59 L+4.3wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+0.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1535…d77bbacked Yes18c149.99$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$277143.7%31 W · 40 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-8.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1546…778bbacked Yes21c149.99$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3235429.9%106 W · 248 L-17.6wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-23.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf096…28a8backed Yes33c149.43$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.311827.8%5 W · 13 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-25.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2155…3428backed Yes21c142.54$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.5618845.2%85 W · 103 L-7.3wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-17.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa1f9…1a73backed No69c141.08$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.213187.1%27 W · 4 L+3.4wins+0.11per pick76cpaid+14.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes19c131.09$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.613,85923.4%903 W · 2,956 L+128.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No72c127.34$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.084,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfc0b…a782backed Yes18c115.96$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.3351537.5%193 W · 322 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes12c113.93$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.9212,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1843…affabacked Yes16c112$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.921637.5%6 W · 10 L+1.6wins+0.10per pick28cpaid+50.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdd33…5452backed No78c108.56$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.8411140.5%45 W · 66 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-7.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb964…927fbacked Yes19c105.71$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.8518327.3%50 W · 133 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-11.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd27c…316dbacked Yes33c100.05$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.64333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+37.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes23c100$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231,32232.2%426 W · 896 L-43.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x851d…a743backed No75c100$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$259552.6%50 W · 45 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3886…b492backed Yes32c100$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3256118.4%103 W · 458 L-6.6wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-8.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb378…e4c0backed Yes16c100$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.22433.3%8 W · 16 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+16.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd721…57a7backed Yes27c100$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2745127.1%122 W · 329 L+7.1wins+0.02per pick25cpaid+25.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0db3…5704backed Yes20c100$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2019022.1%42 W · 148 L-6.7wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-11.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6f7d…9e7abacked Yes33c99.99$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$334330.2%13 W · 30 L0.0wins0.00per pick30cpaid-12.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1c8f…de8abacked Yes28c99.99$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2816626.5%44 W · 122 L-5.0wins-0.03per pick30cpaid-17.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8bf0…3f44backed Yes21c97.35$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.0920%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb4f4…665ebacked No66c97.24$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.0614264.1%91 W · 51 L-5.1wins-0.04per pick68cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2f46…76f5backed Yes20c91.63$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.430131.9%96 W · 205 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick30cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes36c85.45$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.387,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No78c84.91$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.0712,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x2189…13f1backed No67c80.33$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.513444.1%15 W · 19 L-4.4wins-0.13per pick57cpaid-27.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x58ff…7e02backed No66c72.2$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.321758.8%10 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-17.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes23c69.61$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.7466926.2%175 W · 494 L-1.7wins0.00per pick26cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xff9b…6a02backed Yes22c68.93$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.3415834.2%54 W · 104 L+8.8wins+0.06per pick29cpaid+11.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6301…423dbacked Yes23c67.13$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.73450%2 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.20per pick30cpaid+132.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaad7…cf8fbacked No76c66.09$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.9286173.2%630 W · 231 L+13.2wins+0.02per pick72cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb4c1…bec3backed Yes16c64.97$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.1711644%51 W · 65 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbf4d…33edbacked Yes32c62.5$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201330.8%4 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick31cpaid-34.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeb86…fb51backed Yes27c60$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.153511.4%4 W · 31 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick14cpaid-42.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe88f…34cebacked Yes36c52.58$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.711526.7%4 W · 11 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-34.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd39…43a8backed Yes34c51.97$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.6712317.9%22 W · 101 L-10.0wins-0.08per pick26cpaid-35%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes32c50.45$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.279,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xea74…2fadbacked No75c50$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.512068.3%82 W · 38 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick67cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x375d…62c5backed Yes25c50$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.58325.3%21 W · 62 L-5.2wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-23.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4c81…1b64backed Yes38c50$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196144.3%27 W · 34 L+4.8wins+0.08per pick36cpaid+18.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb9df…9571backed No62c49.99$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.1521173.5%155 W · 56 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick73cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3e49…36a1backed Yes26c49.48$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.873020%6 W · 24 L-5.1wins-0.17per pick37cpaid-61.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x7834…4322backed Yes28c48.43$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.65030%15 W · 35 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick27cpaid+14%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe5b2…21f4backed No77c47.68$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.9629770.4%209 W · 88 L+15.2wins+0.05per pick65cpaid+8.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9a14…49d5backed Yes28c46.4$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.993831.6%12 W · 26 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick29cpaid+13.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1361…f12bbacked Yes25c46.26$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.641,92433.8%651 W · 1,273 L+29.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x05ee…93abbacked No71c40.96$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.828872.7%64 W · 24 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick74cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x236b…9b00backed No67c38.97$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.8620266.8%135 W · 67 L-8.9wins-0.04per pick71cpaid-7.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xae68…064abacked No63c36.58$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.692,55563.8%1,631 W · 924 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa98a…a5a8backed No64c35.86$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.882,01567.7%1,365 W · 650 L+1.8wins0.00per pick68cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6606…4d70backed No76c34.77$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.488466.7%56 W · 28 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x652f…bc41backed Yes37c34.72$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.845349.1%26 W · 27 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-14%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0e03…7d65backed No67c33.89$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.212075%15 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick77cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xce93…b03bbacked No80c30$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61573.3%11 W · 4 L+1.4wins+0.09per pick64cpaid+11.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x01a6…59b0backed No63c27.75$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.181,67961.7%1,036 W · 643 L+6.3wins0.00per pick61cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x35e6…7a4dbacked No70c23.76$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.161,69960.6%1,029 W · 670 L-24.7wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xcfb5…c34fbacked No72c20.69$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.7912962.8%81 W · 48 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick65cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x139b…a1a5backed No78c20$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.41464.3%9 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick67cpaid-5.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc457…1675backed No78c19.56$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.35850%29 W · 29 L-3.8wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-17.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4bfe…6586backed No80c17.89$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.58771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick65cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf582…0a68backed No68c17.52$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.61060%6 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick53cpaid-7.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3972…a677backed No66c16.51$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.6181756.4%461 W · 356 L-23.0wins-0.03per pick59cpaid-9.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No72c16$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.484,96168.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L+65.6wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.