Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on April 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa177264a084f71401fe77eb8ea5fc11cb013c7287f3a7b9d265b2bff16435f35
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,672
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,582
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,672 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 87 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe019…f862backed Yes | 22c | 1,105$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.19 | 280 | 21.8%61 W · 219 L | +11.1wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 26c | 865.61$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.7 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 13c | 786.31$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.73 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed No | 79c | 499.61$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.35 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e7c…411abacked Yes | 25c | 432.32$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.28 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04a3…3081backed Yes | 16c | 409.25$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.45 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 29cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ac5…852cbacked Yes | 26c | 395.67$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 28c | 361.86$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.67 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 64c | 307.39$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.74 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes | 23c | 306.9$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.67 | 695 | 20%139 W · 556 L | -44.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0af2…ce86backed No | 79c | 303.26$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.71 | 47 | 63.8%30 W · 17 L | +6.5wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdbae…1b30backed Yes | 25c | 289.17$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.06 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1250…db19backed No | 68c | 284.21$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.62 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 16c | 267.05$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.71 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a7…9c23backed Yes | 21c | 256.82$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.32 | 178 | 38.8%69 W · 109 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc52e…65fbbacked Yes | 15c | 250$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x997e…990dbacked Yes | 25c | 246.61$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.63 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 24cpaid | +66.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2490…11a3backed Yes | 13c | 238.61$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.74 | 70 | 61.4%43 W · 27 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 13c | 230.81$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.02 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4829…97ebbacked Yes | 9c | 191.57$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.19 | 399 | 51.1%204 W · 195 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0fb…b5ffbacked No | 80c | 191.08$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes | 18c | 188.68$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.76 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b9e…0948backed No | 74c | 188.56$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.92 | 108 | 45.4%49 W · 59 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1535…d77bbacked Yes | 18c | 149.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 71 | 43.7%31 W · 40 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1546…778bbacked Yes | 21c | 149.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 354 | 29.9%106 W · 248 L | -17.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf096…28a8backed Yes | 33c | 149.43$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.31 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2155…3428backed Yes | 21c | 142.54$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.56 | 188 | 45.2%85 W · 103 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1f9…1a73backed No | 69c | 141.08$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.21 | 31 | 87.1%27 W · 4 L | +3.4wins | +0.11per pick | 76cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 19c | 131.09$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.61 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 72c | 127.34$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.08 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0b…a782backed Yes | 18c | 115.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.33 | 515 | 37.5%193 W · 322 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 12c | 113.93$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.92 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1843…affabacked Yes | 16c | 112$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.92 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd33…5452backed No | 78c | 108.56$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.84 | 111 | 40.5%45 W · 66 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb964…927fbacked Yes | 19c | 105.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.85 | 183 | 27.3%50 W · 133 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd27c…316dbacked Yes | 33c | 100.05$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.64 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x851d…a743backed No | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 95 | 52.6%50 W · 45 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3886…b492backed Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 561 | 18.4%103 W · 458 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb378…e4c0backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd721…57a7backed Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 451 | 27.1%122 W · 329 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0db3…5704backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 190 | 22.1%42 W · 148 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7d…9e7abacked Yes | 33c | 99.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c8f…de8abacked Yes | 28c | 99.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 166 | 26.5%44 W · 122 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bf0…3f44backed Yes | 21c | 97.35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.09 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f4…665ebacked No | 66c | 97.24$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.06 | 142 | 64.1%91 W · 51 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 68cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f46…76f5backed Yes | 20c | 91.63$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 301 | 31.9%96 W · 205 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 36c | 85.45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.38 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 78c | 84.91$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.07 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x2189…13f1backed No | 67c | 80.33$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.51 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -4.4wins | -0.13per pick | 57cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x58ff…7e02backed No | 66c | 72.2$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.32 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 23c | 69.61$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.74 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff9b…6a02backed Yes | 22c | 68.93$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.34 | 158 | 34.2%54 W · 104 L | +8.8wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6301…423dbacked Yes | 23c | 67.13$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.73 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +132.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 76c | 66.09$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.92 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c1…bec3backed Yes | 16c | 64.97$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 116 | 44%51 W · 65 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf4d…33edbacked Yes | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb86…fb51backed Yes | 27c | 60$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.15 | 35 | 11.4%4 W · 31 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe88f…34cebacked Yes | 36c | 52.58$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.71 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd39…43a8backed Yes | 34c | 51.97$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.67 | 123 | 17.9%22 W · 101 L | -10.0wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -35%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 32c | 50.45$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.27 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea74…2fadbacked No | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 120 | 68.3%82 W · 38 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x375d…62c5backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 83 | 25.3%21 W · 62 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4c81…1b64backed Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 61 | 44.3%27 W · 34 L | +4.8wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb9df…9571backed No | 62c | 49.99$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.15 | 211 | 73.5%155 W · 56 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e49…36a1backed Yes | 26c | 49.48$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | -5.1wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7834…4322backed Yes | 28c | 48.43$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 50 | 30%15 W · 35 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +14%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b2…21f4backed No | 77c | 47.68$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.96 | 297 | 70.4%209 W · 88 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9a14…49d5backed Yes | 28c | 46.4$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.99 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 25c | 46.26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.64 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05ee…93abbacked No | 71c | 40.96$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.82 | 88 | 72.7%64 W · 24 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 74cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x236b…9b00backed No | 67c | 38.97$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.86 | 202 | 66.8%135 W · 67 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 63c | 36.58$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.69 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 64c | 35.86$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.88 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6606…4d70backed No | 76c | 34.77$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.48 | 84 | 66.7%56 W · 28 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x652f…bc41backed Yes | 37c | 34.72$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.84 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -14%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e03…7d65backed No | 67c | 33.89$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.21 | 20 | 75%15 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 77cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce93…b03bbacked No | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 64cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 63c | 27.75$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.18 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 70c | 23.76$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.16 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb5…c34fbacked No | 72c | 20.69$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.79 | 129 | 62.8%81 W · 48 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x139b…a1a5backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 67cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc457…1675backed No | 78c | 19.56$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.3 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | -3.8wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4bfe…6586backed No | 80c | 17.89$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.58 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf582…0a68backed No | 68c | 17.52$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 66c | 16.51$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.61 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 72c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on April 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 16°C on April 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on April 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on April 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on April 24?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on April 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on April 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on April 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C or higher on April 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.