Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on April 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x72052882e613efa03fb16e28c819af244464daedf18c09866785d768bab59ab1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,558
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,295
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,558 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0759…a93dbacked Yes | 2c | 2,584$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.6 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 31cpaid | -71.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 3c | 1,004$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.2 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 4c | 545.47$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.42 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 14c | 460.95$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.48 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e7c…15a4backed Yes | 10c | 399.96$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2fd1…d384backed Yes | 3c | 395$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 148 | 6.8%10 W · 138 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6260…6b21backed Yes | 3c | 390.82$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 45 | 11.1%5 W · 40 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 5c | 352.77$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.07 | 618 | 21.2%131 W · 487 L | -34.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 4c | 299.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c51…4841backed Yes | 13c | 286.47$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.97 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.16per pick | 54cpaid | -43%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 15c | 240.78$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.58 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c63…fafebacked Yes | 13c | 237.23$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.84 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked Yes | 9c | 199.96$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 490 | 38.8%190 W · 300 L | +24.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x54f9…9f4dbacked Yes | 12c | 194.5$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 230 | 7.8%18 W · 212 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01ca…2acabacked Yes | 10c | 149.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 89 | 22.5%20 W · 69 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 20c | 148.15$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.32 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…7017backed Yes | 9c | 148.1$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.29 | 656 | 27.4%180 W · 476 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 15c | 135.16$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.68 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 17c | 99.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2b11…9f63backed Yes | 14c | 92.86$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.79 | 36 | 2.8%1 W · 35 L | -4.3wins | -0.12per pick | 15cpaid | -86.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeb00…5461backed Yes | 16c | 86.33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 196 | 48.5%95 W · 101 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a99…bf87backed Yes | 14c | 78.62$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.18 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 41cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbcc…b8dfbacked Yes | 15c | 71.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2fc…5bd4backed Yes | 30c | 61.29$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.61 | 386 | 33.4%129 W · 257 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a38…16a5backed Yes | 18c | 59.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.76 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed Yes | 23c | 50.05$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.51 | 273 | 28.6%78 W · 195 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 78c | 46.86$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.41 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked No | 75c | 33.33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.33 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec1…07a5backed No | 80c | 22.05$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.41 | 247 | 68.4%169 W · 78 L | +12.8wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 79c | 20.58$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.36 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 72c | 18.32$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.19 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 66c | 17.09$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.81 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x967e…2fb6backed No | 78c | 13.64$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.94 | 143 | 32.9%47 W · 96 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on April 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C or below on April 12?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on April 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on April 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on April 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on April 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.