Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C or below on April 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf0b72c095e5f22f2a4adeb4b9b30db7d7e417d35b1837e73214d0aec11d60f7b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,495
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,420
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,495 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 90 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0020…16b9backed No | 54c | 2,132$1,152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,151.73 | 183 | 33.3%61 W · 122 L | -17.7wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xef60…d6c2backed No | 4c | 499.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 285 | 17.9%51 W · 234 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 47c | 462.46$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.9 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed No | 7c | 367.44$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.95 | 618 | 21.2%131 W · 487 L | -34.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbffd…72cfbacked No | 16c | 358.19$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.16 | 34 | 20.6%7 W · 27 L | -3.3wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed No | 51c | 335.45$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.19 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6400…331abacked Yes | 45c | 323.22$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.57 | 424 | 69.1%293 W · 131 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 39c | 306.86$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.31 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 25c | 302.48$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.09 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed No | 12c | 299.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 99 | 19.2%19 W · 80 L | +5.5wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | +84.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 6c | 287.98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.29 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x01de…f177backed No | 16c | 272.67$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.93 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94da…25b5backed Yes | 8c | 271.5$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.14 | 370 | 7.8%29 W · 341 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0603…8f62backed No | 49c | 269.88$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.36 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | -7.6wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc239…6459backed Yes | 35c | 230.33$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.71 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed No | 10c | 220.8$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.8 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x63b0…4cf2backed No | 24c | 205.06$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.66 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae07…8059backed No | 6c | 202.72$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 435 | 25.3%110 W · 325 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed No | 19c | 201.86$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.63 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc3…b884backed Yes | 45c | 200$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed No | 23c | 196.27$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.56 | 336 | 20.2%68 W · 268 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x31af…5c86backed Yes | 37c | 195.69$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.02 | 318 | 36.8%117 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a9…6747backed Yes | 45c | 176.52$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.09 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a99…bf87backed Yes | 66c | 152.74$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.07 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 41cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 26c | 130.62$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.95 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f93…480bbacked No | 21c | 121.61$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.44 | 60 | 40%24 W · 36 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc7…54abbacked No | 28c | 117.97$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.11 | 186 | 50.5%94 W · 92 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe57d…043abacked No | 18c | 110.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 87 | 46%40 W · 47 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f3…52d8backed No | 65c | 100$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 190 | 71.6%136 W · 54 L | +11.9wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcbcc…b8dfbacked Yes | 68c | 97.09$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.59 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 45c | 94.48$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.13 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 18c | 85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.37 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75d3…3f0ebacked No | 47c | 81.78$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.64 | 209 | 58.4%122 W · 87 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8009…3e9abacked No | 15c | 79.3$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1ea…6765backed No | 25c | 79.24$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.41 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +2.8wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Yes | 66c | 78.75$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.82 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8da1…1a62backed Yes | 76c | 76.12$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.39 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 36c | 75.18$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.01 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdad6…0d14backed Yes | 44c | 74.45$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.86 | 148 | 29.7%44 W · 104 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 68c | 74.37$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.01 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2783…22c0backed Yes | 51c | 73.51$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.37 | 37 | 70.3%26 W · 11 L | +6.0wins | +0.16per pick | 54cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 20c | 72.49$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2e…c770backed Yes | 64c | 64.74$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.32 | 395 | 41.3%163 W · 232 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36ef…3c3abacked Yes | 58c | 63.28$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.77 | 68 | 54.4%37 W · 31 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x432f…849bbacked No | 17c | 63.11$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 49c | 62.7$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.42 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd12…7f29backed Yes | 76c | 60$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.2 | 154 | 37.7%58 W · 96 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a38…16a5backed Yes | 34c | 59.89$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.52 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x766e…75f6backed Yes | 31c | 59.08$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.06 | 165 | 18.2%30 W · 135 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7515…0f90backed No | 50c | 57$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.22 | 159 | 54.7%87 W · 72 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e9c…d0abbacked No | 22c | 54.57$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.02 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | +4.3wins | +0.09per pick | 26cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 64c | 51.57$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.05 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59d4…b745backed Yes | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 275 | 40%110 W · 165 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 66c | 49.98$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.99 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed Yes | 51c | 49.91$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.46 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked Yes | 47c | 49.71$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.47 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fa6…3f0ebacked Yes | 23c | 46.9$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.08 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +3.1wins | +0.24per pick | 22cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x89cc…b925backed Yes | 71c | 45.38$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 47cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 77c | 45.2$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.45 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x765d…8189backed No | 28c | 43.32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -4.5wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -39%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 56c | 43.06$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.98 | 497 | 50.3%250 W · 247 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfa8…cd1ebacked Yes | 45c | 42.21$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.31 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc967…91d5backed Yes | 48c | 41.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.91 | 79 | 13.9%11 W · 68 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32f0…c659backed Yes | 49c | 39.72$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.26 | 235 | 47.7%112 W · 123 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4e…7dbbbacked Yes | 39c | 39.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.29 | 386 | 55.7%215 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe82a…db8dbacked Yes | 48c | 39.5$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.49 | 51 | 11.8%6 W · 45 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7054…e544backed Yes | 74c | 39.41$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.18 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x66a2…0201backed Yes | 79c | 37.05$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.67 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93d1…2715backed No | 39c | 36.96$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.41 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b13…6e6abacked Yes | 56c | 35.7$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.8 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d9c…d0cfbacked Yes | 72c | 34.8$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.81 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc578…4781backed No | 45c | 33.65$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50b1…0793backed Yes | 73c | 29.98$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 436 | 63.5%277 W · 159 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1f9…1a73backed No | 74c | 28.43$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.04 | 31 | 87.1%27 W · 4 L | +3.4wins | +0.11per pick | 76cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed Yes | 44c | 27.82$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.58 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x967e…2fb6backed Yes | 41c | 27.44$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 143 | 32.9%47 W · 96 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4667…20f2backed Yes | 39c | 26.49$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.21 | 41 | 17.1%7 W · 34 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4789…b286backed Yes | 62c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.48 | 75 | 24%18 W · 57 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f6…bf41backed Yes | 74c | 23.38$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.08 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x44b6…98b4backed No | 56c | 22.91$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.92 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab14…e786backed Yes | 49c | 22.56$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.58 | 112 | 43.8%49 W · 63 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7126…658abacked Yes | 75c | 20.83$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.22 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bc1…5f7bbacked No | 53c | 20.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 105 | 69.5%73 W · 32 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a7…9c23backed Yes | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 178 | 38.8%69 W · 109 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd835…59babacked Yes | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.18 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a9c…c336backed Yes | 70c | 19.8$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.04 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26c9…910bbacked Yes | 79c | 19.58$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.14 | 20 | 75%15 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b1…c4d3backed Yes | 67c | 18.87$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.19 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +90%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda7b…3c9fbacked No | 70c | 17.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 125 | 67.2%84 W · 41 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c1…bec3backed Yes | 67c | 15.03$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.91 | 116 | 44%51 W · 65 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C or below on April 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on April 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on April 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on April 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on April 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on April 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.