Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on April 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6bc8d6ccecdc630aa0608599f3abeb03b4e2b00e52dd25f0ffe79347d3efd09f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,548
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,851
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,548 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 3c | 1,461$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.69 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 5c | 1,439$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.41 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeee0…f00ebacked Yes | 1c | 1,188$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.87 | 171 | 40.4%69 W · 102 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb051…b740backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 2c | 907.47$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.06 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c8e…aacbbacked Yes | 4c | 520.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.21 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | +50.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 8c | 495.13$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.13 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6260…6b21backed Yes | 5c | 450$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 45 | 11.1%5 W · 40 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd16f…2badbacked Yes | 26c | 362.61$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.55 | 74 | 16.2%12 W · 62 L | -5.8wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 17c | 308.36$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.39 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked Yes | 4c | 300$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 490 | 38.8%190 W · 300 L | +24.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x945d…a5a0backed Yes | 5c | 251.46$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.49 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 20c | 209$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 7c | 192.81$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 20c | 173.09$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.62 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 15c | 165.84$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.07 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 79c | 150.79$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.9 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c48…6b72backed Yes | 33c | 140.23$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.85 | 452 | 38.5%174 W · 278 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x375d…62c5backed Yes | 19c | 132.27$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.77 | 83 | 25.3%21 W · 62 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea6b…5ac2backed Yes | 14c | 122.58$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.14 | 534 | 37.3%199 W · 335 L | -29.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9ff3…a737backed Yes | 27c | 108.69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.54 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 29c | 106$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.74 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3886…b492backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 561 | 18.4%103 W · 458 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 29c | 99.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…abbdbacked No | 70c | 97.8$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.89 | 446 | 46.2%206 W · 240 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed No | 68c | 95.68$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.29 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf096…28a8backed Yes | 30c | 93.03$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.19 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 17c | 92.28$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.73 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 68c | 83.68$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.83 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes | 21c | 82.91$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.57 | 395 | 35.4%140 W · 255 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…7017backed Yes | 21c | 66.07$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.88 | 656 | 27.4%180 W · 476 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d62…0a41backed No | 70c | 51.41$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.42 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac16…4f44backed Yes | 30c | 50.82$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.24 | 230 | 35.7%82 W · 148 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0759…a93dbacked Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 31cpaid | -71.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7d…9e7abacked Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f46…76f5backed Yes | 24c | 49.16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.02 | 301 | 31.9%96 W · 205 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5127…6f96backed No | 70c | 43.17$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.95 | 123 | 74%91 W · 32 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 69cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf05a…d78fbacked No | 70c | 43.17$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.95 | 126 | 70.6%89 W · 37 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 67c | 39.96$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.37 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e6…aa6cbacked No | 71c | 34.19$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.92 | 119 | 77.3%92 W · 27 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 73cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd61…ebbdbacked No | 79c | 28.25$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 69c | 28$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.68 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 78c | 27.25$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.04 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x481c…2325backed No | 80c | 27.06$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.52 | 123 | 65%80 W · 43 L | +12.2wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 70c | 27$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79f4…8812backed No | 69c | 25.69$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.9 | 50 | 60%30 W · 20 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed No | 70c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7630…789dbacked No | 79c | 24.92$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.35 | 33 | 63.6%21 W · 12 L | +8.9wins | +0.27per pick | 37cpaid | +144.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 78c | 22.16$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.91 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c31…68a1backed No | 70c | 20.48$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.19 | 195 | 47.2%92 W · 103 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb70d…253abacked No | 80c | 18.38$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.68 | 151 | 52.3%79 W · 72 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on April 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 16°C on April 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on April 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on April 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on April 20?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on April 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C or higher on April 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.