Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on April 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2150894e5830e270cabf521983c73b7fccef2aac8b34e3cf917fa02098893045
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $102,647
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $107,536
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $102,647 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 164 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5581…8495backed No | 1c | 33,554$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334.05 | 40 | 62.5%25 W · 15 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -11%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6636…f928backed No | 1c | 4,030$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.49 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1348…7037backed Yes | 67c | 2,033$1,364 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$669.25 | 176 | 65.9%116 W · 60 L | +12.7wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 51c | 1,499$763 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$736.43 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked No | 26c | 1,350$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$347.88 | 601 | 21%126 W · 475 L | -25.4wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 40c | 893.9$356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$537.9 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6260…6b21backed Yes | 50c | 819.87$408 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$411.85 | 45 | 11.1%5 W · 40 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 34c | 810.8$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.18 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 7c | 788.18$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.94 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 31c | 778.59$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$537.82 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x579a…9908backed No | 34c | 712.39$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.04 | 121 | 54.5%66 W · 55 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2783…22c0backed Yes | 29c | 611.81$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$436.33 | 37 | 70.3%26 W · 11 L | +6.0wins | +0.16per pick | 54cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4d0a…c96fbacked Yes | 73c | 541.35$397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.81 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe52c…016abacked Yes | 38c | 514.51$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$317.82 | 166 | 31.9%53 W · 113 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a99…e614backed Yes | 25c | 499.03$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$374.49 | 181 | 16.6%30 W · 151 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc377…593fbacked No | 54c | 497.4$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.48 | 139 | 64%89 W · 50 L | +6.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1546…778bbacked Yes | 61c | 488.5$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.68 | 354 | 29.9%106 W · 248 L | -17.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c8e…aacbbacked Yes | 3c | 397.6$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$384.38 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | +50.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed Yes | 61c | 357.93$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.29 | 273 | 28.6%78 W · 195 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8839…ddb5backed No | 74c | 334.53$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.87 | 218 | 65.6%143 W · 75 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 55c | 327.07$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.32 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 25c | 325.66$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.9 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 66c | 303.02$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.99 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2949…4cc8backed Yes | 31c | 303.02$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.6 | 55 | 58.2%32 W · 23 L | +7.7wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 38c | 294.43$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.13 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 32c | 291.63$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.73 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3eb9…901ebacked Yes | 57c | 259.35$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.67 | 57 | 66.7%38 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a7…9c23backed Yes | 20c | 258.33$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.81 | 178 | 38.8%69 W · 109 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a19…3c95backed Yes | 39c | 254.31$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.39 | 428 | 57%244 W · 184 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc52e…65fbbacked Yes | 27c | 249.94$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.46 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x339e…c5fbbacked Yes | 43c | 243.37$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.81 | 123 | 48%59 W · 64 L | +13.0wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 77c | 224.5$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.21 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a52…baafbacked Yes | 48c | 217.21$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa09d…af80backed Yes | 22c | 214.06$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.98 | 211 | 50.7%107 W · 104 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 51c | 213.54$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.37 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e16…27c0backed No | 27c | 208.46$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.54 | 297 | 48.5%144 W · 153 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd399…4517backed Yes | 49c | 204.24$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.68 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | +6.0wins | +0.15per pick | 46cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x58d5…d270backed Yes | 16c | 197.82$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.11 | 56 | 41.1%23 W · 33 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x425d…6cb0backed Yes | 50c | 191.33$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.37 | 253 | 44.7%113 W · 140 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd33…5452backed Yes | 42c | 190.33$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.65 | 111 | 40.5%45 W · 66 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2390…b882backed Yes | 47c | 181.75$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.81 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34df…2982backed No | 67c | 178.04$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.29 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 72c | 173.93$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.38 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 23c | 173.17$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.47 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 19c | 148.92$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.05 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 34c | 147.8$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.89 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed Yes | 48c | 145.55$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.71 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb00…5461backed No | 43c | 142.23$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.26 | 196 | 48.5%95 W · 101 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff9b…6a02backed Yes | 27c | 137.33$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.25 | 158 | 34.2%54 W · 104 L | +8.8wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8150…dbbfbacked No | 17c | 135.08$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.01 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 36c | 132.22$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.81 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06c…6961backed Yes | 75c | 130.05$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.55 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb051…b740backed No | 36c | 126.95$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.33 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d6…966bbacked No | 19c | 126.9$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.51 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 72c | 124.95$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.2 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 21c | 112.2$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.58 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd12…7f29backed Yes | 24c | 109.99$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.41 | 154 | 37.7%58 W · 96 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked No | 23c | 101.84$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.3 | 214 | 29.4%63 W · 151 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2fc…5bd4backed Yes | 35c | 101.79$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.19 | 386 | 33.4%129 W · 257 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3910…ba74backed No | 80c | 100.19$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.77 | 172 | 31.4%54 W · 118 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f3…52d8backed No | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 190 | 71.6%136 W · 54 L | +11.9wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1535…d77bbacked Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 71 | 43.7%31 W · 40 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed No | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1424…c73fbacked No | 78c | 99.99$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.99 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.16per pick | 30cpaid | -80.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…7017backed Yes | 24c | 99.9$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.92 | 656 | 27.4%180 W · 476 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x073e…453fbacked No | 78c | 99.53$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.63 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2117…9bedbacked Yes | 44c | 97.4$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.74 | 69 | 46.4%32 W · 37 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed Yes | 21c | 92.06$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.08 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf13b…db8dbacked Yes | 21c | 91.31$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.27 | 86 | 39.5%34 W · 52 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 78c | 90.72$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.55 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 79c | 87.24$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.21 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…fe29backed No | 36c | 87.12$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.48 | 521 | 55.3%288 W · 233 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb81c…164abacked Yes | 45c | 86.58$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.54 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 40cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8798…45efbacked Yes | 27c | 85.45$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.27 | 77 | 36.4%28 W · 49 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc766…1533backed Yes | 20c | 79.9$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.97 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 79c | 79.56$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.99 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9757…2dbfbacked No | 50c | 79.14$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.36 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b2…9a9bbacked No | 59c | 78.63$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.06 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f6…eadabacked No | 77c | 77.91$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.06 | 165 | 75.8%125 W · 40 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 16c | 75.96$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.12 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f5…923abacked No | 80c | 75.54$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.42 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0bd…fe2abacked Yes | 28c | 72.92$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.51 | 106 | 42.5%45 W · 61 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fa2…931bbacked Yes | 26c | 70.8$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.39 | 71 | 26.8%19 W · 52 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c41…6275backed No | 41c | 69.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.45 | 263 | 27.8%73 W · 190 L | +14.9wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 23c | 69.59$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.69 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6230…6debbacked No | 61c | 69.42$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.23 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 22c | 69.14$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.63 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6316…7488backed Yes | 40c | 68.58$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.49 | 153 | 34%52 W · 101 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f18…5b28backed No | 77c | 67.54$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.15 | 265 | 66.4%176 W · 89 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa3…0d65backed No | 74c | 66.15$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.95 | 36 | 75%27 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 77cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bef…3304backed Yes | 21c | 65.89$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.73 | 98 | 30.6%30 W · 68 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 34c | 61.47$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.34 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked No | 72c | 60.94$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.72 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes | 19c | 58.95$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.93 | 395 | 35.4%140 W · 255 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 26c | 56.65$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.92 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bb5…3bf4backed No | 57c | 54.19$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.69 | 96 | 56.3%54 W · 42 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef60…d6c2backed Yes | 20c | 50.62$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.28 | 285 | 17.9%51 W · 234 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x658b…84bfbacked Yes | 36c | 50.01$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.25 | 204 | 45.1%92 W · 112 L | +14.8wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa222…7d3cbacked Yes | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7d…9e7abacked Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on April 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 16°C on April 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on April 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on April 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on April 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on April 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C or higher on April 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.