Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on April 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdc4f735a08ff58c399a76902a44f32f8d6318da28ba51362143e5d64804ba43b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $104,991
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $107,852
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $104,991 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 84 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x425d…6cb0backed Yes | 0c | 18,233$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.75 | 253 | 44.7%113 W · 140 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x425c…e269backed Yes | 0c | 11,884$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71d5…55f7backed Yes | 4c | 6,742$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.67 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 5c | 1,701$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.26 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2949…4cc8backed Yes | 66c | 1,590$1,042 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,041.58 | 55 | 58.2%32 W · 23 L | +7.7wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1546…778bbacked Yes | 27c | 1,503$407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$406.87 | 354 | 29.9%106 W · 248 L | -17.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2783…22c0backed Yes | 73c | 1,407$1,030 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,029.57 | 37 | 70.3%26 W · 11 L | +6.0wins | +0.16per pick | 54cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 19c | 1,105$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.54 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfba1…2769backed Yes | 1c | 1,087$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.51 | 106 | 40.6%43 W · 63 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 46c | 814.34$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$438.87 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8bad…b337backed Yes | 4c | 807.87$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.16 | 323 | 10.5%34 W · 289 L | +15.6wins | +0.05per pick | 6cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 12c | 662.28$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.08 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b2…9a9bbacked No | 27c | 629.45$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$457.81 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 63c | 582.52$366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$365.58 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a7…9c23backed Yes | 3c | 559.01$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.04 | 178 | 38.8%69 W · 109 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 34c | 514.01$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.8 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6260…6b21backed Yes | 2c | 500$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 45 | 11.1%5 W · 40 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x54f9…9f4dbacked Yes | 6c | 476.19$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.63 | 230 | 7.8%18 W · 212 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 4c | 475.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.93 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes | 11c | 441.95$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.76 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22c3…b145backed Yes | 5c | 440$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.7 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -69.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe019…f862backed Yes | 4c | 404.5$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.68 | 280 | 21.8%61 W · 219 L | +11.1wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked No | 26c | 401.3$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.98 | 601 | 21%126 W · 475 L | -25.4wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc52e…65fbbacked Yes | 3c | 372.38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.87 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d0a…c96fbacked Yes | 52c | 339.44$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.27 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e16…27c0backed No | 19c | 319.33$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.83 | 297 | 48.5%144 W · 153 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0625…5801backed Yes | 72c | 294.64$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 67cpaid | -55%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 20c | 287.2$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.31 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xd2fc…5bd4backed Yes | 10c | 275.92$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.36 | 386 | 33.4%129 W · 257 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd918…aa30backed Yes | 5c | 274.79$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -63%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 7c | 268.26$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.37 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe52a…43dfbacked Yes | 5c | 266.16$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 10cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd12…7f29backed Yes | 12c | 229.13$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.88 | 154 | 37.7%58 W · 96 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 8c | 213.46$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.08 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe52c…016abacked No | 29c | 202.64$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.25 | 166 | 31.9%53 W · 113 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 64c | 198.86$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.11 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 13c | 186.37$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.23 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed22…6450backed No | 64c | 177.53$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.95 | 431 | 39.2%169 W · 262 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3910…ba74backed No | 22c | 167.79$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.33 | 172 | 31.4%54 W · 118 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Yes | 59c | 148.17$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.69 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1f…493cbacked No | 60c | 139.15$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.78 | 38 | 76.3%29 W · 9 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 67cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc4…4ef0backed Yes | 55c | 136.9$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.9 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3bba…a2eabacked Yes | 22c | 133.95$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.33 | 182 | 55.5%101 W · 81 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ff3…a737backed Yes | 75c | 130.07$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.5 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 24c | 113.92$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.32 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 73c | 101.79$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.77 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed No | 58c | 100.15$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.5 | 273 | 28.6%78 W · 195 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 75c | 100$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.6 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2117…9bedbacked Yes | 75c | 100$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.6 | 69 | 46.4%32 W · 37 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c8…b8c0backed Yes | 12c | 99.69$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.29 | 328 | 30.5%100 W · 228 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 58c | 99.37$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.15 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f3…52d8backed No | 59c | 96.87$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.95 | 190 | 71.6%136 W · 54 L | +11.9wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb76d…636bbacked Yes | 22c | 92.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.94 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +2.4wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xef60…d6c2backed Yes | 13c | 91.42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.92 | 285 | 17.9%51 W · 234 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc41…108fbacked Yes | 25c | 91.41$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.13 | 98 | 52%51 W · 47 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 48c | 84.73$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.06 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x815c…1082backed No | 77c | 80.06$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.69 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 63cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa6bc…59b0backed No | 54c | 75.53$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.38 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a1…20f9backed No | 27c | 74.47$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.47 | 340 | 57.1%194 W · 146 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c41…6275backed Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 263 | 27.8%73 W · 190 L | +14.9wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9729…038abacked Yes | 52c | 57.79$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.95 | 90 | 37.8%34 W · 56 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd87…5eb3backed No | 61c | 54.5$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 60 | 65%39 W · 21 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3eb9…901ebacked Yes | 67c | 51.76$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.74 | 57 | 66.7%38 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x496d…a2f2backed No | 22c | 50.83$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.85 | 89 | 27%24 W · 65 L | +7.4wins | +0.08per pick | 19cpaid | +164.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd33…5452backed Yes | 45c | 50.34$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.71 | 111 | 40.5%45 W · 66 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa200…27b0backed No | 37c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.69 | 154 | 35.7%55 W · 99 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x658b…84bfbacked Yes | 72c | 50$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 204 | 45.1%92 W · 112 L | +14.8wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1b0…155bbacked Yes | 52c | 48.58$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9733…be31backed Yes | 35c | 47.62$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.85 | 72 | 50%36 W · 36 L | +4.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36f6…ae14backed Yes | 23c | 46.13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 116 | 63.8%74 W · 42 L | +7.0wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x87c0…8be1backed No | 64c | 39.63$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.29 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +38.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7124…f09bbacked Yes | 49c | 37.96$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.57 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked Yes | 73c | 34.06$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.96 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec1…07a5backed No | 54c | 33.56$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.57 | 247 | 68.4%169 W · 78 L | +12.8wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 32$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.26 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 72c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.66 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked No | 43c | 28.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.54 | 214 | 29.4%63 W · 151 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8910…4734backed No | 64c | 25.98$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.37 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc80f…6147backed Yes | 74c | 22.75$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.84 | 525 | 33.7%177 W · 348 L | +22.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 72c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.36 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbfe8…6d0abacked No | 53c | 18.88$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.87 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8ba…4da2backed No | 80c | 16.27$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.26 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +42.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked Yes | 79c | 16$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.66 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on April 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 16°C on April 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on April 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on April 20?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on April 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on April 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C or higher on April 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.