Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on April 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2973029687e50a7e10101d7090ccb69c63d0ea16b87c65a7e97dfd9071aa492a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $50,499
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,921
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $50,499 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 135 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6a99…e614backed Yes | 2c | 4,100$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.38 | 181 | 16.6%30 W · 151 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 28c | 1,486$414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$414.06 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 6c | 1,335$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.4 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d09…143fbacked Yes | 2c | 1,138$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.07 | 288 | 29.5%85 W · 203 L | +32.9wins | +0.11per pick | 18cpaid | +101.6%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes | 4c | 966.63$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.3 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6260…6b21backed Yes | 9c | 848.47$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.38 | 45 | 11.1%5 W · 40 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 37c | 841.78$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.92 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe52c…016abacked Yes | 27c | 791.29$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.04 | 166 | 31.9%53 W · 113 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7048…f896backed Yes | 43c | 786.47$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.58 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -4.9wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb051…b740backed Yes | 16c | 696.62$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.69 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 18c | 568.93$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.63 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 11c | 564.72$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.61 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 7c | 539.84$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.99 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ef6…833fbacked Yes | 44c | 460.57$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.32 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -3.4wins | -0.34per pick | 44cpaid | -75.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x182a…f847backed Yes | 54c | 456.63$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.58 | 187 | 62.6%117 W · 70 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 19c | 449.84$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.08 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c41…6275backed Yes | 26c | 440.53$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.65 | 263 | 27.8%73 W · 190 L | +14.9wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 4c | 426$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.74 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8150…dbbfbacked Yes | 2c | 423.27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.52 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 48c | 416.65$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.66 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c8e…aacbbacked Yes | 4c | 411.54$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.07 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | +50.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 73c | 394.72$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.3 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2949…4cc8backed Yes | 29c | 343.83$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.55 | 55 | 58.2%32 W · 23 L | +7.7wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9519…9c28backed Yes | 48c | 297.36$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.17 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc109…450bbacked Yes | 19c | 269.97$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.75 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c73…1a76backed Yes | 18c | 269.96$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.4 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.23per pick | 49cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…fb31backed Yes | 5c | 269.21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.81 | 169 | 44.4%75 W · 94 L | +18.5wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x58d5…d270backed Yes | 15c | 267.22$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.63 | 56 | 41.1%23 W · 33 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f44…ace3backed Yes | 18c | 258.4$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.89 | 66 | 60.6%40 W · 26 L | +11.9wins | +0.18per pick | 43cpaid | +52.7%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x339e…c5fbbacked Yes | 42c | 249.2$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.5 | 123 | 48%59 W · 64 L | +13.0wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 6c | 241.93$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2fc…5bd4backed Yes | 33c | 223.65$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.16 | 386 | 33.4%129 W · 257 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd399…4517backed Yes | 48c | 211.75$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.99 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | +6.0wins | +0.15per pick | 46cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked No | 60c | 207.84$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.76 | 601 | 21%126 W · 475 L | -25.4wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 14c | 204.66$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.74 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 71c | 201.99$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.24 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 37c | 200$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a52…baafbacked Yes | 51c | 199.14$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.79 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f4…665ebacked No | 70c | 199.1$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.73 | 142 | 64.1%91 W · 51 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 68cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 16c | 197.89$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.99 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d0a…c96fbacked Yes | 21c | 195.92$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.53 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d6…966bbacked Yes | 8c | 166.71$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.22 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x579a…9908backed No | 70c | 160.05$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.02 | 121 | 54.5%66 W · 55 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 31c | 156.85$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.06 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c48…6b72backed Yes | 32c | 153.68$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.18 | 452 | 38.5%174 W · 278 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed Yes | 21c | 150$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 496 | 46%228 W · 268 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfff9…a21abacked No | 68c | 131.56$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.76 | 81 | 38.3%31 W · 50 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -26%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 73c | 125.34$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.82 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 41c | 123.13$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.07 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 60c | 117.93$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.04 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6316…7488backed Yes | 37c | 114.74$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.89 | 153 | 34%52 W · 101 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 53c | 107.02$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.61 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a1e…9095backed Yes | 25c | 102.81$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.31 | 173 | 76.3%132 W · 41 L | +11.7wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb76d…636bbacked Yes | 32c | 102.4$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.31 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +2.4wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2117…9bedbacked Yes | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 69 | 46.4%32 W · 37 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef60…d6c2backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 285 | 17.9%51 W · 234 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a12…f7fdbacked No | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 160 | 45.6%73 W · 87 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x305d…88e2backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | -3.6wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6396…7183backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 108 | 27.8%30 W · 78 L | -9.5wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f3…52d8backed No | 60c | 99.8$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.06 | 190 | 71.6%136 W · 54 L | +11.9wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 68c | 99.79$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.36 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa09d…af80backed Yes | 49c | 99.48$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.75 | 211 | 50.7%107 W · 104 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac16…4f44backed Yes | 29c | 97.64$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.77 | 230 | 35.7%82 W · 148 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…6465backed No | 63c | 96.48$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.51 | 375 | 33.6%126 W · 249 L | -11.9wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 51c | 95.15$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.98 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd3…013fbacked Yes | 20c | 94$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 22 | 77.3%17 W · 5 L | +5.9wins | +0.27per pick | 51cpaid | +92.8%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xf096…28a8backed Yes | 32c | 93.2$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.82 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2fb…ae7bbacked Yes | 30c | 93$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.9 | 90 | 28.9%26 W · 64 L | +6.8wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +35%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf13b…db8dbacked Yes | 33c | 92.82$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.63 | 86 | 39.5%34 W · 52 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e94…d649backed Yes | 50c | 90.29$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.57 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6de…9452backed Yes | 24c | 89.98$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.4 | 84 | 28.6%24 W · 60 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x294f…16e5backed Yes | 42c | 87.11$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.76 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed Yes | 40c | 85.82$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.92 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9791…a14abacked No | 58c | 83.34$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.91 | 194 | 61.9%120 W · 74 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7197…a2d4backed Yes | 18c | 83.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.98 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeec5…b6febacked Yes | 34c | 83.02$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.48 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -16%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd2c1…b590backed Yes | 20c | 80$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7966…b251backed No | 73c | 79.99$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.29 | 143 | 59.4%85 W · 58 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2936…6c5fbacked No | 72c | 79.45$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.22 | 342 | 50.6%173 W · 169 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes | 38c | 79.09$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.41 | 395 | 35.4%140 W · 255 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked Yes | 30c | 70.17$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.33 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ba…1349backed No | 70c | 67.69$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.31 | 271 | 67.2%182 W · 89 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 50c | 64.88$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.71 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x375d…62c5backed Yes | 30c | 64.68$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.35 | 83 | 25.3%21 W · 62 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec88…3537backed Yes | 47c | 64.15$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa3…0d65backed No | 78c | 62.72$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.02 | 36 | 75%27 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 77cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3886…b492backed Yes | 25c | 62.29$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.57 | 561 | 18.4%103 W · 458 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a7…9c23backed No | 62c | 61.5$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.32 | 178 | 38.8%69 W · 109 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd11c…ff7dbacked Yes | 23c | 60$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 347 | 48.7%169 W · 178 L | +13.5wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a8…7e66backed Yes | 56c | 60$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2354…fab1backed Yes | 21c | 57.18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.28 | 140 | 62.9%88 W · 52 L | +11.8wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 30c | 55.25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.58 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46bf…9ebbbacked Yes | 23c | 54.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 70c | 53.99$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.41 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 20c | 53.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa493…1b55backed Yes | 29c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 269 | 33.1%89 W · 180 L | +21.8wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +71.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x470b…c331backed Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.23 | 147 | 44.2%65 W · 82 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7d…9e7abacked Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09b8…35d7backed Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf97…3c31backed No | 63c | 49.55$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.33 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on April 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 16°C on April 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on April 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on April 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on April 20?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on April 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C or higher on April 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.