Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 18 to April 20, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5ed35234573264d10e23ca2c52e6a0ef6b5ba2a48b8619c4e31476f55a002422
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $357,450
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $291,147
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $357,450 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 92 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1db9…a43bbacked Yes | 0c | 22,107$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.4 | 238 | 19.3%46 W · 192 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -25%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7681…ac03backed Yes | 0c | 20,000$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 138 | 9.4%13 W · 125 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bff…5ab4backed Yes | 0c | 16,989$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.16 | 80 | 2.5%2 W · 78 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -80.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 4c | 15,446$577 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$576.78 | 1,782 | 7.4%132 W · 1,650 L | -23.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6be9…3493backed Yes | 2c | 6,264$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.33 | 1,067 | 8.3%89 W · 978 L | +28.9wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8cf…819ebacked Yes | 0c | 5,305$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 326 | 13.8%45 W · 281 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95ef…ff92backed Yes | 1c | 4,087$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.54 | 87 | 5.7%5 W · 82 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -65.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4143…d67dbacked Yes | 0c | 4,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 212 | 20.3%43 W · 169 L | +13.4wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | +610.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9ccc…e7e8backed Yes | 20c | 2,983$606 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$606.22 | 226 | 10.6%24 W · 202 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd769…f90cbacked Yes | 10c | 2,930$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.36 | 144 | 13.9%20 W · 124 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x732f…201ebacked Yes | 6c | 2,753$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.38 | 397 | 23.2%92 W · 305 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa14a…df2abacked Yes | 7c | 2,509$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.44 | 562 | 8.9%50 W · 512 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 8cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…37febacked Yes | 5c | 2,500$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.18 | 316 | 21.8%69 W · 247 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x146d…17c7backed Yes | 4c | 2,366$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.08 | 1,196 | 8.7%104 W · 1,092 L | +31.0wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeab1…8121backed Yes | 4c | 2,039$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.58 | 488 | 19.3%94 W · 394 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e64…4ddabacked Yes | 1c | 2,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 388 | 11.9%46 W · 342 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeff9…05fdbacked Yes | 1c | 1,991$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.42 | 164 | 27.4%45 W · 119 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x828e…c21bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,662$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.96 | 274 | 17.5%48 W · 226 L | +11.0wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4e9…f380backed Yes | 20c | 1,502$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.51 | 176 | 31.8%56 W · 120 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b6d…d7dcbacked Yes | 10c | 1,499$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.68 | 140 | 25.7%36 W · 104 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 11c | 1,367$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.3 | 1,045 | 13.6%142 W · 903 L | +37.8wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a3…eac8backed Yes | 11c | 1,200$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137 | 191 | 24.6%47 W · 144 L | -10.8wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5bff…e08fbacked Yes | 2c | 1,146$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.73 | 167 | 16.2%27 W · 140 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x878a…a429backed Yes | 7c | 1,100$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 317 | 22.4%71 W · 246 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7871…2917backed Yes | 18c | 1,061$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.59 | 108 | 29.6%32 W · 76 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7413…4b09backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 798 | 11.3%90 W · 708 L | +30.0wins | +0.04per pick | 8cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca1…17e5backed Yes | 12c | 1,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 35 | 11.4%4 W · 31 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6869…0484backed Yes | 10c | 998.6$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.86 | 121 | 17.4%21 W · 100 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6640…e07abacked Yes | 7c | 993.36$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.86 | 781 | 11.3%88 W · 693 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x814f…aeecbacked Yes | 4c | 884.58$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.46 | 58 | 19%11 W · 47 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 11c | 850.54$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.39 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 1c | 791.86$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 229 | 26.6%61 W · 168 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…d656backed Yes | 12c | 703.24$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.5 | 880 | 17.3%152 W · 728 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f67…bd8ebacked No | 80c | 697.82$557 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.88 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d4…c1b8backed Yes | 13c | 683.66$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.8 | 177 | 28.2%50 W · 127 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18a0…dea8backed Yes | 14c | 672.17$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.3 | 576 | 21.2%122 W · 454 L | +9.9wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe46…8b21backed Yes | 6c | 667.77$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.83 | 218 | 16.1%35 W · 183 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8007…a8f4backed Yes | 3c | 577.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.03 | 156 | 49.4%77 W · 79 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47f3…e493backed Yes | 15c | 575$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.25 | 97 | 26.8%26 W · 71 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67da…440ebacked Yes | 6c | 550.55$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.01 | 211 | 6.6%14 W · 197 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ce0…5f11backed Yes | 4c | 548.83$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.15 | 427 | 19.2%82 W · 345 L | +23.3wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd0f…2154backed Yes | 16c | 545.34$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.92 | 344 | 25.6%88 W · 256 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a0…fb89backed Yes | 18c | 519.65$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.68 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2778…8547backed Yes | 24c | 509.4$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.06 | 133 | 15.8%21 W · 112 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7946…bfb2backed Yes | 13c | 504.11$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.53 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5523…561cbacked Yes | 15c | 499.99$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04a2…e16cbacked Yes | 17c | 498.12$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.35 | 638 | 21.5%137 W · 501 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…0861backed Yes | 13c | 450.4$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.98 | 880 | 18.6%164 W · 716 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cac…9127backed Yes | 6c | 444.7$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.68 | 38 | 18.4%7 W · 31 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f13…1631backed Yes | 21c | 444.37$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.13 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd187…c76cbacked Yes | 6c | 437.08$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.17 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbced…7f66backed Yes | 6c | 414.62$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.88 | 197 | 26.9%53 W · 144 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3db2…be55backed Yes | 22c | 412.79$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.23 | 58 | 22.4%13 W · 45 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2fb2…83b5backed Yes | 5c | 362$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.1 | 44 | 22.7%10 W · 34 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…fca1backed Yes | 18c | 327.3$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.69 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c29…8c43backed Yes | 18c | 321.2$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.92 | 465 | 21.3%99 W · 366 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe31e…ec88backed Yes | 6c | 315.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 95 | 33.7%32 W · 63 L | +5.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x456a…9d4bbacked Yes | 22c | 305.28$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.24 | 59 | 30.5%18 W · 41 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xceed…f8eebacked Yes | 20c | 300$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 251 | 27.1%68 W · 183 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x280f…1963backed Yes | 10c | 300$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc5b…eb72backed Yes | 15c | 300$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 86 | 33.7%29 W · 57 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x983d…76aebacked Yes | 16c | 231.93$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.11 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd69e…3edfbacked Yes | 21c | 229.33$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc13…c991backed Yes | 13c | 212.32$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.93 | 161 | 24.2%39 W · 122 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbf4…3b45backed Yes | 8c | 200$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 317 | 43.2%137 W · 180 L | +28.2wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b9…7023backed Yes | 8c | 200$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 222 | 27%60 W · 162 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd68…0261backed Yes | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 199 | 30.7%61 W · 138 L | +13.6wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a0…4230backed Yes | 21c | 191.02$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.11 | 168 | 31.5%53 W · 115 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5dc…17d8backed Yes | 25c | 186.88$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.24 | 183 | 21.9%40 W · 143 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68fc…55d3backed Yes | 17c | 161.82$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.51 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 13c | 146$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.91 | 186 | 8.6%16 W · 170 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -76.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa951…8a2fbacked No | 76c | 143.87$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.01 | 92 | 40.2%37 W · 55 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a8…6abdbacked Yes | 22c | 138.3$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.43 | 121 | 36.4%44 W · 77 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11e8…f98fbacked Yes | 10c | 133.91$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | +7.0wins | +0.19per pick | 18cpaid | +97%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1442…c64fbacked Yes | 23c | 131.96$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.46 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba7c…2a2abacked Yes | 20c | 126.34$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.27 | 109 | 27.5%30 W · 79 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6763…b14fbacked No | 78c | 115$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.68 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf92d…a225backed Yes | 18c | 103.47$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.36 | 233 | 8.2%19 W · 214 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01b4…fbe4backed Yes | 16c | 102.14$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 64 | 29.7%19 W · 45 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb68e…3ebabacked Yes | 16c | 100.67$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 96 | 27.1%26 W · 70 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cf…51d2backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 320 | 16.6%53 W · 267 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd398…a865backed Yes | 14c | 99.7$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.69 | 116 | 25.9%30 W · 86 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49c9…e4a0backed Yes | 14c | 95.97$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a84…a46bbacked Yes | 18c | 95.9$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.26 | 41 | 19.5%8 W · 33 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb556…ca63backed Yes | 21c | 95.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.14 | 78 | 30.8%24 W · 54 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 16c | 90$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.13 | 249 | 32.9%82 W · 167 L | -33.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x3958…2152backed Yes | 22c | 84$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.48 | 80 | 36.3%29 W · 51 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcbe…b37cbacked Yes | 22c | 57.29$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 74 | 32.4%24 W · 50 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec87…8d59backed Yes | 19c | 53.3$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.13 | 106 | 44.3%47 W · 59 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc316…037fbacked Yes | 22c | 50.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9db5…701ebacked No | 75c | 45$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 86 | 79.1%68 W · 18 L | +9.2wins | +0.11per pick | 68cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x98cf…2cc1backed No | 80c | 43.71$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.95 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 18 to April 20, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from April 18 to April 20, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from April 18 to April 20, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from April 18 to April 20, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from April 18 to April 20, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from April 18 to April 20, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 18 to April 20, 2026?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 18 to April 20, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 18 to April 20, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.