TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 18 to April 20, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$357,450
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$291,147

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $357,450 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 92 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1db9…a43bbacked Yes0c22,107$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.423819.3%46 W · 192 L-6.2wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-25%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7681…ac03backed Yes0c20,000$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$351389.4%13 W · 125 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-37.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0bff…5ab4backed Yes0c16,989$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.16802.5%2 W · 78 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-80.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes4c15,446$577 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$576.781,7827.4%132 W · 1,650 L-23.2wins-0.01per pick9cpaid-66.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes2c6,264$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.331,0678.3%89 W · 978 L+28.9wins+0.03per pick6cpaid-28.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe8cf…819ebacked Yes0c5,305$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.5532613.8%45 W · 281 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick15cpaid-60.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x95ef…ff92backed Yes1c4,087$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.54875.7%5 W · 82 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick6cpaid-65.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4143…d67dbacked Yes0c4,000$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1221220.3%43 W · 169 L+13.4wins+0.06per pick14cpaid+610.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9ccc…e7e8backed Yes20c2,983$606 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$606.2222610.6%24 W · 202 L+0.2wins0.00per pick11cpaid-39.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd769…f90cbacked Yes10c2,930$298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$298.3614413.9%20 W · 124 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick15cpaid-28.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x732f…201ebacked Yes6c2,753$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.3839723.2%92 W · 305 L-0.4wins0.00per pick23cpaid-31.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa14a…df2abacked Yes7c2,509$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.445628.9%50 W · 512 L+6.3wins+0.01per pick8cpaid+18.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaee7…37febacked Yes5c2,500$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.1831621.8%69 W · 247 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-34.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes4c2,366$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.081,1968.7%104 W · 1,092 L+31.0wins+0.03per pick6cpaid-1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xeab1…8121backed Yes4c2,039$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.5848819.3%94 W · 394 L+0.5wins0.00per pick19cpaid-23.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3e64…4ddabacked Yes1c2,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2038811.9%46 W · 342 L+6.5wins+0.02per pick10cpaid+51.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeff9…05fdbacked Yes1c1,991$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.4216427.4%45 W · 119 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-13.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x828e…c21bbacked Yes1c1,662$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.9627417.5%48 W · 226 L+11.0wins+0.04per pick13cpaid-9.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb4e9…f380backed Yes20c1,502$302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301.5117631.8%56 W · 120 L-0.1wins0.00per pick32cpaid-15.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9b6d…d7dcbacked Yes10c1,499$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.6814025.7%36 W · 104 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-18.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe130…4006backed Yes11c1,367$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.31,04513.6%142 W · 903 L+37.8wins+0.04per pick10cpaid-14.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf7a3…eac8backed Yes11c1,200$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13719124.6%47 W · 144 L-10.8wins-0.06per pick30cpaid-42.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5bff…e08fbacked Yes2c1,146$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.7316716.2%27 W · 140 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick17cpaid-45.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x878a…a429backed Yes7c1,100$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7331722.4%71 W · 246 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick24cpaid-30.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7871…2917backed Yes18c1,061$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187.5910829.6%32 W · 76 L-4.3wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-27.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7413…4b09backed Yes1c1,000$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.679811.3%90 W · 708 L+30.0wins+0.04per pick8cpaid+33.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6ca1…17e5backed Yes12c1,000$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1203511.4%4 W · 31 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick13cpaid+21.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6869…0484backed Yes10c998.6$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.8612117.4%21 W · 100 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6640…e07abacked Yes7c993.36$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.8678111.3%88 W · 693 L-5.0wins-0.01per pick12cpaid-44.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x814f…aeecbacked Yes4c884.58$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.465819%11 W · 47 L+2.2wins+0.04per pick15cpaid-13.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes11c850.54$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.392,55213.1%335 W · 2,217 L+4.3wins0.00per pick13cpaid-30.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes1c791.86$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.0122926.6%61 W · 168 L-0.7wins0.00per pick27cpaid-48.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe7c0…d656backed Yes12c703.24$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.588017.3%152 W · 728 L+2.4wins0.00per pick17cpaid-32.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7f67…bd8ebacked No80c697.82$557 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.88475%3 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.15per pick60cpaid-1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc4d4…c1b8backed Yes13c683.66$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.817728.2%50 W · 127 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick26cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x18a0…dea8backed Yes14c672.17$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.357621.2%122 W · 454 L+9.9wins+0.02per pick19cpaid-27.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbe46…8b21backed Yes6c667.77$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.8321816.1%35 W · 183 L+6.1wins+0.03per pick13cpaid-9.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8007…a8f4backed Yes3c577.98$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.0315649.4%77 W · 79 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick51cpaid+3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x47f3…e493backed Yes15c575$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.259726.8%26 W · 71 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick30cpaid-31.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x67da…440ebacked Yes6c550.55$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.012116.6%14 W · 197 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-23.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ce0…5f11backed Yes4c548.83$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.1542719.2%82 W · 345 L+23.3wins+0.05per pick14cpaid+7.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xcd0f…2154backed Yes16c545.34$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.9234425.6%88 W · 256 L+0.2wins0.00per pick26cpaid-29.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb1a0…fb89backed Yes18c519.65$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.682737%10 W · 17 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2778…8547backed Yes24c509.4$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.0613315.8%21 W · 112 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick14cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7946…bfb2backed Yes13c504.11$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.5390%0 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5523…561cbacked Yes15c499.99$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75540%2 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-27.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x04a2…e16cbacked Yes17c498.12$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.3563821.5%137 W · 501 L+1.7wins0.00per pick21cpaid-25.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9696…0861backed Yes13c450.4$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.9888018.6%164 W · 716 L+10.1wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-24.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8cac…9127backed Yes6c444.7$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.683818.4%7 W · 31 L-1.9wins-0.05per pick23cpaid-15.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7f13…1631backed Yes21c444.37$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.133122.6%7 W · 24 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-46.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd187…c76cbacked Yes6c437.08$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.173228.1%9 W · 23 L+1.6wins+0.05per pick23cpaid+11.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbced…7f66backed Yes6c414.62$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.8819726.9%53 W · 144 L+4.7wins+0.02per pick25cpaid+7.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3db2…be55backed Yes22c412.79$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.235822.4%13 W · 45 L-2.5wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-11.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2fb2…83b5backed Yes5c362$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.14422.7%10 W · 34 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick22cpaid+12.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe5b1…fca1backed Yes18c327.3$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.69922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick29cpaid-48.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9c29…8c43backed Yes18c321.2$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.9246521.3%99 W · 366 L-11.5wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-24%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe31e…ec88backed Yes6c315.4$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.959533.7%32 W · 63 L+5.1wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+9.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x456a…9d4bbacked Yes22c305.28$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.245930.5%18 W · 41 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-23.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xceed…f8eebacked Yes20c300$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6025127.1%68 W · 183 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-20.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x280f…1963backed Yes10c300$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$306240.3%25 W · 37 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+9.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfc5b…eb72backed Yes15c300$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$458633.7%29 W · 57 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+11%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x983d…76aebacked Yes16c231.93$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.112619.2%5 W · 21 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick16cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd69e…3edfbacked Yes21c229.33$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.1620%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcc13…c991backed Yes13c212.32$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.9316124.2%39 W · 122 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-14.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbbf4…3b45backed Yes8c200$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1531743.2%137 W · 180 L+28.2wins+0.09per pick34cpaid+13.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe2b9…7023backed Yes8c200$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.522227%60 W · 162 L+5.2wins+0.02per pick25cpaid-6.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd68…0261backed Yes15c200$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3019930.7%61 W · 138 L+13.6wins+0.07per pick24cpaid+20.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe2a0…4230backed Yes21c191.02$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.1116831.5%53 W · 115 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-10.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd5dc…17d8backed Yes25c186.88$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.2418321.9%40 W · 143 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-9.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x68fc…55d3backed Yes17c161.82$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.513627.8%10 W · 26 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick26cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed Yes13c146$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.911868.6%16 W · 170 L-6.3wins-0.03per pick12cpaid-76.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa951…8a2fbacked No76c143.87$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.019240.2%37 W · 55 L-6.5wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-20.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe1a8…6abdbacked Yes22c138.3$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.4312136.4%44 W · 77 L+0.1wins0.00per pick36cpaid+21.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x11e8…f98fbacked Yes10c133.91$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.863836.8%14 W · 24 L+7.0wins+0.19per pick18cpaid+97%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x1442…c64fbacked Yes23c131.96$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.461346.2%6 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+17.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xba7c…2a2abacked Yes20c126.34$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.2710927.5%30 W · 79 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick25cpaid-5.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6763…b14fbacked No78c115$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.685056%28 W · 22 L+3.6wins+0.07per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf92d…a225backed Yes18c103.47$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.362338.2%19 W · 214 L+5.1wins+0.02per pick6cpaid+15.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x01b4…fbe4backed Yes16c102.14$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166429.7%19 W · 45 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick28cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb68e…3ebabacked Yes16c100.67$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169627.1%26 W · 70 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-18.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc3cf…51d2backed Yes20c100$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2032016.6%53 W · 267 L-5.1wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-15.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd398…a865backed Yes14c99.7$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.6911625.9%30 W · 86 L-3.2wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-28.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x49c9…e4a0backed Yes14c95.97$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.443831.6%12 W · 26 L-3.5wins-0.09per pick41cpaid-18.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6a84…a46bbacked Yes18c95.9$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.264119.5%8 W · 33 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-34.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb556…ca63backed Yes21c95.89$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.147830.8%24 W · 54 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick29cpaid-12.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed Yes16c90$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.1324932.9%82 W · 167 L-33.4wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-46.2%equal weight36-0.12 edge/pick
0x3958…2152backed Yes22c84$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.488036.3%29 W · 51 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick34cpaid-2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfcbe…b37cbacked Yes22c57.29$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.67432.4%24 W · 50 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-11%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xec87…8d59backed Yes19c53.3$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.1310644.3%47 W · 59 L-0.4wins0.00per pick45cpaid-9.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc316…037fbacked Yes22c50.29$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.0610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9db5…701ebacked No75c45$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.18679.1%68 W · 18 L+9.2wins+0.11per pick68cpaid+9.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x98cf…2cc1backed No80c43.71$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.95450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-31.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.