Bundesliga · resolved market
Will RB Leipzig vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4ebdbaf0a161d092400789dd97bc5a1db1a26b4e14f4df1a332c4d35f39649ae
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,772
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,773
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,772 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcd36…a8acbacked No | 75c | 4,000$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000.12 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 75c | 2,479$1,849 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$630.25 | 751 | 42.5%319 W · 432 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Yes | 25c | 1,818$455 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$454.5 | 536 | 45.9%246 W · 290 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6b…075fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,600$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 99 | 51.5%51 W · 48 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff6…51e5backed Yes | 26c | 1,360$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.51 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8a0…2c5abacked No | 75c | 1,345$1,015 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$329.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2575…bf1ebacked Yes | 26c | 1,130$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.8 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee14…8055backed No | 75c | 1,117$842 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.99 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae94…0c03backed Yes | 27c | 950$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 25c | 923.54$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.89 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe18a…fd87backed No | 75c | 700$525 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175 | 240 | 50.4%121 W · 119 L | +18.5wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x72d7…1b97backed Yes | 23c | 434.78$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 89 | 32.6%29 W · 60 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…8464backed Yes | 28c | 425$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119 | 155 | 40.6%63 W · 92 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x587b…2622backed No | 79c | 400$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 194 | 58.2%113 W · 81 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +28%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x78a4…ea47backed Yes | 28c | 357.14$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Yes | 26c | 351$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.26 | 151 | 34.4%52 W · 99 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd24d…3ab5backed No | 75c | 339.5$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.87 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb74e…e0a6backed Yes | 14c | 315.95$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…eca0backed Yes | 19c | 308.78$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x004e…90f8backed Yes | 29c | 293.1$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Yes | 21c | 221$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.41 | 491 | 43.2%212 W · 279 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Yes | 28c | 206$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.68 | 446 | 55.4%247 W · 199 L | +22.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd0a0…35cdbacked Yes | 26c | 192.58$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb460…041fbacked Yes | 26c | 192.31$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f9…c4e8backed Yes | 26c | 166.07$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca66…2305backed Yes | 27c | 165.52$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.69 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc11e…75c8backed Yes | 12c | 160$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc8…f45bbacked Yes | 20c | 148$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Yes | 31c | 126.18$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.49 | 223 | 32.3%72 W · 151 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa7b7…0adbbacked Yes | 25c | 126$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 61 | 54.1%33 W · 28 L | +5.0wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x32d6…844bbacked Yes | 23c | 124$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.52 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes | 21c | 101$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.94 | 63 | 47.6%30 W · 33 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe977…fcd8backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.19per pick | 49cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7f83…a491backed Yes | 25c | 99.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00ec…3ecbbacked Yes | 17c | 99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb14…0da7backed Yes | 26c | 96.15$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d6c…2854backed Yes | 21c | 95.02$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 51 | 56.9%29 W · 22 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5665…21dabacked Yes | 23c | 93.57$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.52 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc587…1630backed No | 76c | 86.88$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.02 | 38 | 68.4%26 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x412f…30fabacked No | 75c | 81$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.25 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x823d…3d44backed Yes | 20c | 76.7$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a7d…596abacked Yes | 26c | 76.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.82 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed No | 74c | 73.75$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.18 | 195 | 44.6%87 W · 108 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a72…c2a0backed Yes | 24c | 71.25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf142…57e7backed Yes | 24c | 70.3$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.87 | 230 | 46.5%107 W · 123 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ba…e793backed No | 75c | 66.66$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.66 | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x98f2…7364backed No | 75c | 63$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56c6…0ea4backed Yes | 24c | 57.81$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 44cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d66…0e16backed Yes | 26c | 57.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x312d…6814backed No | 72c | 55.56$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.76 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +4.1wins | +0.29per pick | 49cpaid | +83.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3d9f…0852backed No | 75c | 54.41$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 75cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed Yes | 25c | 54$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 151 | 60.9%92 W · 59 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd05e…941ebacked Yes | 26c | 52.77$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.72 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cf0…df85backed Yes | 21c | 52.38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.14per pick | 31cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked No | 73c | 52.22$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda87…ca76backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed No | 74c | 45.85$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.92 | 147 | 56.5%83 W · 64 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9270…7c9ebacked Yes | 25c | 41.33$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.33 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x859d…3cecbacked Yes | 25c | 40.04$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +52.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79df…1661backed Yes | 26c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 85 | 31.8%27 W · 58 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf79e…9a84backed No | 74c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 138 | 59.4%82 W · 56 L | +12.8wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcd35…ecebbacked Yes | 31c | 38.12$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 37cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…e834backed No | 66c | 31.27$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.63 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf232…4fc6backed No | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 62cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e2c2backed No | 75c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -2.1wins | -0.30per pick | 73cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x35e3…9ebbbacked No | 75c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd306…4320backed No | 66c | 22.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.73 | 52 | 32.7%17 W · 35 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +67.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cea…2a6fbacked No | 75c | 18.92$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.73 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03f0…db3abacked No | 75c | 17.4$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53ec…b3a8backed No | 75c | 16.35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.09 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7b4…dc56backed No | 75c | 15.43$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.86 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will RB Leipzig vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen end in a draw?this page
- Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2025-12-20?Yes won
- Will RB Leipzig win on 2025-12-20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.