TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Bundesliga · resolved market

Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2025-12-20?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$128,071
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$163,785

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $128,071 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 118 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc58d…9373backed No42c5,723$2,404 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,403.72540%2 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-37.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x48fe…b2b6backed Yes60c5,045$3,029 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,016.183855.3%21 W · 17 L+2.2wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+5.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4133…5e70backed No45c4,377$1,955 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,954.9875142.5%319 W · 432 L-26.7wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-14.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked No62c4,313$2,694 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,693.811,35550.9%690 W · 665 L+12.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6603…959ebacked Yes58c4,134$2,398 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,736.16450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x97e0…8194backed No70c3,000$2,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,099.9811644.8%52 W · 64 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick47cpaid+5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x73c5…2f80backed Yes71c2,339$1,661 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$678.236051.7%31 W · 29 L+4.4wins+0.07per pick44cpaid-6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked No41c2,318$961 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$960.862,53839.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L-8.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xae94…0c03backed Yes58c1,724$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$724.14333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-42.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x73d4…dbd6backed Yes58c1,722$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$721.841100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7ff6…51e5backed Yes67c1,544$1,035 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$509.76333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-50.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Yes30c1,518$457 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,060.6715134.4%52 W · 99 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-7.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4446…1fd0backed Yes70c1,423$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$422.952882.1%23 W · 5 L+4.0wins+0.14per pick68cpaid+24.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xbcb0…03f0backed No1c1,380$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Yes34c1,274$436 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$838.2322332.3%72 W · 151 L-7.6wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-24%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed No42c1,208$512 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$511.523,28442.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L-74.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x908a…ad16backed No30c1,190$362 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$361.8951136.8%188 W · 323 L-28.0wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-24.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5ba8…ab96backed No70c1,150$802 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$802.291070%7 W · 3 L+1.6wins+0.16per pick54cpaid+25.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0caf…abfebacked Yes58c1,034$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$433.791656.3%9 W · 7 L+1.0wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+10.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd0ee…fb4fbacked Yes30c1,005$302 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$703.64933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-12.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed Yes30c993.06$298 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$695.1456547.8%270 W · 295 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee14…8055backed No76c820.38$625 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$624.673762.2%23 W · 14 L+2.0wins+0.05per pick57cpaid+6.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8bce…150bbacked No25c799.96$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.9930%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Yes31c797$245 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$552.0828241.5%117 W · 165 L-7.9wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-16.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf699…07e1backed No79c665$525 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$525.3510463.5%66 W · 38 L+9.8wins+0.09per pick54cpaid+22.5%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xd502…4d4cbacked No69c566.61$391 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$390.962161.9%13 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick64cpaid-6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7705…a442backed Yes29c550$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$390.515829.1%46 W · 112 L-5.7wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-19.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8ddb…420bbacked No71c500$355 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3552661.5%16 W · 10 L+0.1wins0.00per pick61cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb0a6…fa77backed No40c500$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200837.5%3 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick38cpaid-18.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf41a…ea2bbacked No70c499.99$348 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$347.992665.4%17 W · 9 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+13.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xce2b…08fabacked Yes59c450$266 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.538055.8%212 W · 168 L-0.9wins0.00per pick56cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5bab…50aabacked Yes69c434.78$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.782055%11 W · 9 L-1.9wins-0.10per pick65cpaid-17.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes71c429.48$307 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.966347.6%30 W · 33 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed No36c405.52$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.653645.9%246 W · 290 L+6.7wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9f86…2874backed Yes70c398.57$279 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.57666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.10per pick56cpaid+14.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9d9e…847dbacked Yes53c351.54$187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.543100%3 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+94.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x873a…2066backed Yes70c333.57$232 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.6313332.3%43 W · 90 L-5.4wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-37%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf540…cc07backed Yes30c333.33$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$233.33560%3 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.13per pick47cpaid+36.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaa6c…4b49backed Yes15c333.33$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$283.332842.9%12 W · 16 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+8.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf18a…e4e5backed Yes20c300$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2402948.3%14 W · 15 L+1.9wins+0.07per pick42cpaid+23.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcb5b…eca0backed Yes34c294.12$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$194.122548%12 W · 13 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7d75…8b3abacked Yes71c221.38$157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.18560%3 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+6.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe6aa…8882backed Yes33c211.67$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.827219.4%14 W · 58 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-24.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf2ff…121cbacked No75c210$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.91747.1%8 W · 9 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick54cpaid-23.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcb6d…4e19backed Yes31c200$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-20.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb82b…3a09backed Yes59c200$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$832544%11 W · 14 L+2.6wins+0.10per pick34cpaid+72.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc430…28ffbacked Yes58c198.78$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.49250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-13.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8b49…69c1backed Yes67c190$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.71838.9%7 W · 11 L-1.7wins-0.10per pick49cpaid-34.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5665…21dabacked Yes58c181.4$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.19366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x76da…30a2backed Yes58c172.41$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.414949%24 W · 25 L+3.0wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+0.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0c6a…9717backed Yes58c172.41$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.411566.7%10 W · 5 L+1.5wins+0.10per pick56cpaid+13.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3a56…387cbacked No20c165.4$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.198946.1%41 W · 48 L+0.3wins0.00per pick46cpaid-11.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc11e…75c8backed Yes31c160$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.81520%3 W · 12 L0.0wins0.00per pick20cpaid-27.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed No19c155.47$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.8416542.4%70 W · 95 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-14.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x135c…968fbacked Yes78c155.13$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.13683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.23per pick61cpaid+35.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x66c9…2e68backed Yes68c147.19$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.191560%9 W · 6 L+1.3wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+6.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2cf0…df85backed Yes33c146$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.82944.4%4 W · 5 L+1.2wins+0.14per pick31cpaid+36.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5a07…923fbacked Yes69c144.93$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.931100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa1f…0ec8backed No70c142.86$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd1a8…1b66backed No70c142.08$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.461353.8%7 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+11.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0db7…5c06backed Yes32c134.38$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.382661.5%16 W · 10 L+3.6wins+0.14per pick48cpaid+23.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa469…4985backed Yes32c134.38$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.385248.1%25 W · 27 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+1.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x076e…a6a4backed Yes58c131.38$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.181675%12 W · 4 L+2.4wins+0.15per pick60cpaid+30%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa710…f1ccbacked Yes32c125$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8517930.2%54 W · 125 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe0f1…df16backed No41c122$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.0220%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xedb1…3fddbacked No36c112.5$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$403336.4%12 W · 21 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-5.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed No70c107.11$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.0114756.5%83 W · 64 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e46…5737backed Yes79c101.87$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.394461.4%27 W · 17 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick57cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5364…c64dbacked Yes74c100$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.631100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+34.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd3ba…e793backed Yes80c100$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$204360.5%26 W · 17 L+2.5wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+1.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6f7d…9e7abacked Yes58c100$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick54cpaid+20.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfa57…1e6bbacked No69c100$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick53cpaid-38.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x88d1…4f91backed Yes15c99.57$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.632100%2 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.73per pick27cpaid+361.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x566e…1340backed No70c98.59$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.525250%26 W · 26 L+0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcbd0…dec4backed No43c97.97$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.1310%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2bba…cf95backed Yes32c93.75$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.75366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick49cpaid+55.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9609…2236backed Yes31c92$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.48425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-19.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf2ef…fd79backed Yes31c90.32$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.321100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.69per pick31cpaid+222.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd53e…e70cbacked No37c89.88$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.981464.3%9 W · 5 L+1.0wins+0.07per pick57cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2aba…7d56backed No70c89.23$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.4630%0 W · 3 L-1.8wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x844b…2580backed No34c88.24$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.15per pick56cpaid+26.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x71cd…912dbacked No26c87.15$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.662025%5 W · 15 L+2.3wins+0.11per pick14cpaid+285.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0bd4…49b7backed Yes58c86.21$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.216451.6%33 W · 31 L+2.8wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+11.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x205b…d66abacked Yes74c80$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.82560%15 W · 10 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick65cpaid-4.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x79df…1661backed Yes30c75$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.58531.8%27 W · 58 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-11.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x03f0…63e0backed Yes67c74.63$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.633056.7%17 W · 13 L+2.1wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+5.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x83d3…a973backed Yes67c73.13$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.13366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick70cpaid-3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7181…1b0abacked No44c68.18$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304454.5%24 W · 20 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick59cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x859d…3cecbacked Yes29c67.86$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.184641.3%19 W · 27 L+2.1wins+0.05per pick37cpaid+52.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf672…c3c4backed Yes30c66.67$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.672650%13 W · 13 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+6.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a2c…32bcbacked Yes33c60.61$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.611631.3%5 W · 11 L-2.5wins-0.16per pick47cpaid-40.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xbed0…3c7dbacked Yes76c60.53$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.5320436.3%74 W · 130 L-5.5wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-13%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed No70c60$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4230054%162 W · 138 L+10.2wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+2.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3880…ab7dbacked No43c58.14$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2510863%68 W · 40 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick61cpaid-1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8e05…566ebacked Yes72c55.5$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.542100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+85.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x865f…e88ebacked Yes31c52.86$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.4834342%144 W · 199 L-0.4wins0.00per pick42cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x216b…8528backed Yes58c51.72$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.723743.2%16 W · 21 L-6.2wins-0.17per pick60cpaid-26.5%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x3014…4ecdbacked Yes30c50$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick34cpaid+11.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x80c5…5898backed Yes31c48.39$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.391100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.69per pick31cpaid+222.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbb32…b21ebacked No67c47.7$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.91633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.26per pick59cpaid-34.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.