World Politics · resolved market
Will Kast win by at least 25%?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x21fbebe86967d00e5855a457bf2fc4b8576f99520131588e312ac71da5d8c7b9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $862,722
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $96,709
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $862,722 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 83 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x784f…5df9backed Yes | 7c | 32,942$2,173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,172.97 | 74 | 36.5%27 W · 47 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a59…a364backed Yes | 8c | 4,668$379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$379.05 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98d0…f14abacked Yes | 9c | 3,136$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.39 | 149 | 47.7%71 W · 78 L | +6.9wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 6c | 3,000$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 121 | 33.1%40 W · 81 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2a8…8466backed Yes | 7c | 2,173$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.12 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +100.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 7c | 2,022$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.38 | 98 | 22.4%22 W · 76 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x442a…7c94backed Yes | 5c | 2,000$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.21 | 61 | 41%25 W · 36 L | +6.1wins | +0.10per pick | 31cpaid | +93.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf8be…c8d1backed Yes | 8c | 1,998$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.83 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 7c | 1,723$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.27 | 167 | 6.6%11 W · 156 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb74e…e0a6backed Yes | 12c | 1,552$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -79.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x357e…2a0cbacked Yes | 15c | 1,391$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.95 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +50.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 6c | 1,306$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.82 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2fb…c42abacked Yes | 5c | 1,250$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.45 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c86…923fbacked Yes | 5c | 1,184$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.34 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.31per pick | 41cpaid | +67.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed Yes | 8c | 1,127$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.35 | 247 | 36.8%91 W · 156 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 5c | 1,126$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.04 | 142 | 5.6%8 W · 134 L | -27.2wins | -0.19per pick | 25cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xf42f…a6a7backed Yes | 5c | 1,033$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.22 | 197 | 42.6%84 W · 113 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes | 7c | 1,030$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.96 | 94 | 18.1%17 W · 77 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6997…ceb6backed Yes | 9c | 1,023$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5eb2…55a7backed Yes | 15c | 914.48$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc38…f41ebacked Yes | 2c | 824.48$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3bef…f04ebacked Yes | 7c | 770.13$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.12 | 49 | 22.4%11 W · 38 L | +4.7wins | +0.10per pick | 13cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fd…95aebacked Yes | 7c | 717.03$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.08 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1088…b813backed Yes | 16c | 699.59$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.18 | 136 | 39%53 W · 83 L | +7.0wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 7c | 604.96$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.56 | 211 | 7.1%15 W · 196 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc2…0727backed Yes | 6c | 601.63$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.75 | 45 | 8.9%4 W · 41 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 5cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4706…286ebacked Yes | 8c | 590.4$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.8 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 5cpaid | +79.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes | 7c | 588.93$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | +87.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x629b…995abacked Yes | 6c | 539.98$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.57 | 432 | 43.1%186 W · 246 L | +29.2wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9bb0…3231backed Yes | 5c | 535.76$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.48 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +309.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea84…ea97backed Yes | 2c | 521.57$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 9c | 504.69$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.98 | 563 | 14.6%82 W · 481 L | -39.3wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3103…d804backed Yes | 4c | 500$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb950…4dd4backed Yes | 9c | 500$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.44 | 75 | 33.3%25 W · 50 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e32…535bbacked Yes | 7c | 499.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.4 | 284 | 30.3%86 W · 198 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2179…57e6backed Yes | 6c | 481.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9357…81ddbacked Yes | 7c | 465.97$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.02 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf6…559dbacked Yes | 6c | 444.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 315 | 34%107 W · 208 L | +7.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed Yes | 7c | 423.34$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.41 | 63 | 11.1%7 W · 56 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 6cpaid | +117.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9524…86cfbacked Yes | 3c | 411.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 86 | 32.6%28 W · 58 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcef…7388backed Yes | 7c | 410$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.87 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +2.1wins | +0.16per pick | 7cpaid | +246.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc62a…c2c7backed Yes | 9c | 388.46$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.16 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6c…fb04backed Yes | 12c | 385.36$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.1 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb952…a3d1backed Yes | 5c | 372.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c71…baafbacked Yes | 5c | 369.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.13 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6049…4aa9backed Yes | 6c | 345.06$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.28 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed Yes | 9c | 332.27$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.03 | 284 | 34.2%97 W · 187 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x960f…43b2backed Yes | 7c | 310.37$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6bc…f561backed Yes | 16c | 309.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3de…e227backed Yes | 7c | 305.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.13 | 239 | 21.3%51 W · 188 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d24…a2e9backed Yes | 4c | 299$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.86 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 5c | 299$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.94 | 166 | 12.7%21 W · 145 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f3e…f9d4backed Yes | 5c | 254$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.46 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +3.3wins | +0.17per pick | 38cpaid | +107.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf3b4…27f7backed Yes | 13c | 253.94$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.96 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -79.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cd4…5c6abacked Yes | 5c | 236.74$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b9…b836backed Yes | 13c | 235$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.55 | 82 | 37.8%31 W · 51 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ba7…dec0backed Yes | 15c | 231.86$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.78 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f50…7077backed Yes | 6c | 221.85$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x674c…1d73backed Yes | 9c | 219.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0da…9f4fbacked Yes | 9c | 217.95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82aa…2393backed Yes | 5c | 217$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1be8…de7ebacked Yes | 8c | 212.82$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.61 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -81.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad70…4ccfbacked Yes | 5c | 210.76$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 72 | 16.7%12 W · 60 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.21 | 149 | 4.7%7 W · 142 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 76c | 200$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 457 | 23.2%106 W · 351 L | -15.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 11c | 199.98$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.33 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd12f…9213backed Yes | 11c | 173$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabcd…8ce8backed Yes | 8c | 145.39$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf86…1916backed Yes | 13c | 126.15$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 12c | 125$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 203 | 28.6%58 W · 145 L | -11.4wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd1…0c4fbacked Yes | 12c | 120$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 92 | 37%34 W · 58 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbcc4…c6b9backed Yes | 11c | 110.16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +130.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78b1…f58fbacked Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.21 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 13c | 90$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 367 | 42.5%156 W · 211 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked Yes | 23c | 85.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 134 | 46.3%62 W · 72 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49b1…0f4dbacked No | 77c | 46.18$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.45 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafe4…5727backed No | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23a5…2c53backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd577…d2dabacked No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 293 | 9.2%27 W · 266 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc59d…3eacbacked No | 80c | 16.41$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.31 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.2wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +76.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 76c | 14.8$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.55 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed No | 77c | 13.07$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.07 | 91 | 52.7%48 W · 43 L | -6.8wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Kast win by at least 25%?this page
- Will Jara win by at least 5%?No won
- Will Jara win by less than 5%?No won
- Will Kast win by 10% to 15%?No won
- Will Kast win by 15% to 20%?Yes won
- Will Kast win by 20% to 25%?No won
- Will Kast win by 5% to 10%?No won
- Will Kast win by less than 5%?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.