World Politics · resolved market
Will José Antonio Kast win between 24% and 28% of votes in the first round?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3e31950d3d5fea392d41493d8fb2250b4c981dc591689cea5fd134ecc8fc99d3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $55,369
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $48,740
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $55,369 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4a90…0834backed Yes | 13c | 7,504$967 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$967.14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5def…1283backed Yes | 1c | 4,801$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.36 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3103…d804backed Yes | 13c | 2,820$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375.35 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd30b…207ebacked Yes | 13c | 2,533$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 17cpaid | +129.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…1cf3backed Yes | 8c | 1,881$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.51 | 73 | 35.6%26 W · 47 L | +15.3wins | +0.21per pick | 15cpaid | +188.8%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x7767…6ec6backed Yes | 42c | 1,720$718 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$718 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa113…93f4backed Yes | 3c | 1,548$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 60 | 38.3%23 W · 37 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d71…87d5backed Yes | 45c | 1,534$685 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$684.78 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.17per pick | 53cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 13c | 1,418$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.09 | 371 | 17.8%66 W · 305 L | -18.9wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x94fb…d6cbbacked No | 74c | 1,185$880 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.29 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -28%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d43…bec0backed Yes | 67c | 1,103$739 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$738.56 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -3.0wins | -0.33per pick | 45cpaid | -73.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf3b4…27f7backed Yes | 4c | 1,054$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.73 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -79.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b91…ae77backed Yes | 21c | 944.15$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.83 | 56 | 30.4%17 W · 39 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x064f…e8e6backed Yes | 6c | 728.63$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.51 | 27 | 14.8%4 W · 23 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed No | 79c | 666$525 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.97 | 66 | 22.7%15 W · 51 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -58.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a59…a364backed Yes | 12c | 513.49$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.4 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 9c | 480.61$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.58 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x414b…0d3fbacked Yes | 19c | 409$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.07 | 133 | 34.6%46 W · 87 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf00…0704backed Yes | 37c | 390.25$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.44 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x629b…995abacked No | 70c | 366.85$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.8 | 432 | 43.1%186 W · 246 L | +29.2wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1aba…c083backed Yes | 12c | 352.31$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.5 | 80 | 36.3%29 W · 51 L | +5.8wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1940…f54abacked Yes | 32c | 263.15$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f0…58dfbacked No | 12c | 250$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +7.4wins | +0.31per pick | 15cpaid | +216.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed Yes | 22c | 200$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 284 | 34.2%97 W · 187 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55dd…8702backed No | 77c | 199.94$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.94 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 27c | 194.81$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.97 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7be3…afa3backed No | 77c | 193.55$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.58 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf6…559dbacked Yes | 22c | 178$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.24 | 315 | 34%107 W · 208 L | +7.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45cf…40b0backed Yes | 70c | 172$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.6 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x381c…8ee8backed Yes | 35c | 166.06$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.81 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 37cpaid | -68.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x13bb…c279backed Yes | 19c | 160.1$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 13c | 138.83$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.24 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7bb3…641fbacked Yes | 30c | 129.51$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.48 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a9c…45e0backed Yes | 20c | 120$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +144.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbcc4…c6b9backed No | 15c | 120$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +130.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95da…60b4backed Yes | 15c | 106.67$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7740…cbcdbacked Yes | 20c | 94.41$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.88 | 53 | 58.5%31 W · 22 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc84f…0ab8backed Yes | 26c | 77.69$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4cf…78c4backed No | 44c | 60$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.6 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1520…0d2cbacked Yes | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f59…c79bbacked Yes | 26c | 53.58$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked No | 74c | 51.01$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.26 | 199 | 57.3%114 W · 85 L | +6.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e2d…4323backed No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 74c | 32.31$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 576 | 36.3%209 W · 367 L | -27.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 990 | 17.2%170 W · 820 L | -148.8wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…8d0ebacked No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8936…d010backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will José Antonio Kast win between 24% and 28% of votes in the first round?this page
- Will José Antonio Kast win at least 28% of votes in the first round?No won
- Will José Antonio Kast win between 16% and 20% of votes in the first round?No won
- Will José Antonio Kast win between 20% and 24% of votes in the first round?Yes won
- Will José Antonio Kast win less than 16% of votes in the first round?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.