World Politics · resolved market
Will José Antonio Kast win between 20% and 24% of votes in the first round?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x55a34e35d50b06af6a31f92c72557df394d3495a05ef05280338437164121901
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $59,160
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $66,515
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $59,160 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4a90…0834backed No | 18c | 6,630$1,208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,207.63 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x629b…995abacked Yes | 59c | 3,652$2,157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,494.99 | 432 | 43.1%186 W · 246 L | +29.2wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8de2…8483backed Yes | 77c | 1,970$1,523 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$447.25 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | +3.6wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7bb3…641fbacked No | 41c | 1,570$640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$640.39 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7767…6ec6backed No | 33c | 1,509$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked No | 13c | 1,332$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.87 | 371 | 17.8%66 W · 305 L | -18.9wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf6…559dbacked Yes | 76c | 1,299$987 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.38 | 315 | 34%107 W · 208 L | +7.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbcc4…c6b9backed Yes | 33c | 1,217$406 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$810.07 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +130.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 2c | 1,036$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.58 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9524…86cfbacked Yes | 70c | 1,033$720 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$313.04 | 86 | 32.6%28 W · 58 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5567…aeedbacked No | 47c | 959.44$449 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$448.58 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b91…ae77backed Yes | 29c | 700$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$498.26 | 56 | 30.4%17 W · 39 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a9c…45e0backed Yes | 32c | 540.15$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$366.07 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +144.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed No | 3c | 378.16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 688 | 3.6%25 W · 663 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed Yes | 34c | 365$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.26 | 284 | 34.2%97 W · 187 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2a8…8466backed Yes | 32c | 361.68$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.02 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +100.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa364…792ebacked Yes | 34c | 298.53$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.02 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -18%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9099…8491backed No | 65c | 261.22$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.79 | 49 | 59.2%29 W · 20 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 23c | 219.07$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.65 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc23d…82c8backed Yes | 14c | 200$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 40c | 200$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 549 | 34.6%190 W · 359 L | -37.0wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 40c | 150$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 576 | 36.3%209 W · 367 L | -27.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf00…0704backed Yes | 36c | 150$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x064f…e8e6backed Yes | 10c | 150$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.5 | 27 | 14.8%4 W · 23 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 66c | 133.94$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.59 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x490a…db32backed Yes | 11c | 126$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.4 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +3.4wins | +0.20per pick | 27cpaid | +71.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3474…0571backed No | 67c | 100$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 200 | 34%68 W · 132 L | +9.0wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1940…f54abacked Yes | 32c | 98.94$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.94 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa113…93f4backed Yes | 40c | 94.12$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.89 | 60 | 38.3%23 W · 37 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed Yes | 41c | 92$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.2 | 91 | 52.7%48 W · 43 L | -6.8wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x45cf…40b0backed Yes | 78c | 71.36$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.47 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 69c | 69.3$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.82 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x381c…8ee8backed Yes | 45c | 65.63$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.14 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 37cpaid | -68.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1aba…c083backed Yes | 25c | 63.81$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.61 | 80 | 36.3%29 W · 51 L | +5.8wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe4cf…78c4backed No | 52c | 60.14$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e14…d58cbacked Yes | 79c | 60$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.31per pick | 36cpaid | +205.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked No | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 199 | 57.3%114 W · 85 L | +6.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c65…6b11backed No | 58c | 34.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -3.9wins | -0.18per pick | 45cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8d76…1652backed Yes | 67c | 25.37$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.37 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will José Antonio Kast win between 20% and 24% of votes in the first round?this page
- Will José Antonio Kast win at least 28% of votes in the first round?No won
- Will José Antonio Kast win between 16% and 20% of votes in the first round?No won
- Will José Antonio Kast win between 24% and 28% of votes in the first round?No won
- Will José Antonio Kast win less than 16% of votes in the first round?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.