Earnings · resolved market
Will Google say "Nano Banana" during earnings call?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe8f41f8d73e8b3e3387a7a540949ae643463854d39f810676746db7350352261
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,299
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,595
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,299 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x33db…417abacked No | 52c | 365.28$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.9 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d5b…afe2backed No | 36c | 328.33$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.41 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0472…c62fbacked Yes | 69c | 246.93$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.77 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 27c | 199.99$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 118 | 31.4%37 W · 81 L | -8.1wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5ae7…3e12backed Yes | 60c | 187.25$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.8 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -16%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb79…e05cbacked No | 42c | 173.27$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ab9…01bebacked Yes | 69c | 162.4$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e41…ca06backed Yes | 70c | 160.02$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…f4c1backed No | 29c | 149.51$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.11 | 31 | 64.5%20 W · 11 L | +5.3wins | +0.17per pick | 47cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0340…0811backed Yes | 72c | 138.76$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13bb…c279backed Yes | 24c | 120$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.2 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.47per pick | 28cpaid | +147.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0845…6b6fbacked Yes | 55c | 112.53$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.26 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 30c | 108.66$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.56 | 463 | 14.3%66 W · 397 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 28c | 71.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 218 | 20.2%44 W · 174 L | -9.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed No | 43c | 71.07$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.29 | 68 | 54.4%37 W · 31 L | +7.4wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1d90…1e8bbacked Yes | 69c | 63.46$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.67 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6183…3834backed Yes | 68c | 61.66$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.66 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 67cpaid | +23%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38fc…33e2backed Yes | 67c | 60$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.1 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b61…e873backed Yes | 67c | 53.69$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +48.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29ef…dddabacked Yes | 58c | 45$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.05 | 50 | 72%36 W · 14 L | +6.3wins | +0.13per pick | 59cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8d87…5263backed Yes | 72c | 41.67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49b1…0f4dbacked Yes | 69c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d6e…cd63backed No | 33c | 38$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 33c | 31.11$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 60 | 40%24 W · 36 L | +4.7wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…5698backed Yes | 62c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.14per pick | 59cpaid | -25%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x946d…366cbacked Yes | 72c | 27.92$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8323…8b3cbacked Yes | 68c | 27.14$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.74 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +62.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28b7…ece8backed Yes | 52c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78b1…f58fbacked Yes | 58c | 24.46$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.16 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5415…2a6ebacked Yes | 72c | 22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.16 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabee…e9a5backed Yes | 72c | 20.83$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.83 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +72.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2a0…9ae4backed Yes | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b36…473bbacked Yes | 68c | 18.43$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.98 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.31per pick | 56cpaid | -63%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9039…ca93backed Yes | 73c | 17.81$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.81 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55cd…5cccbacked Yes | 70c | 17.06$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Google say "Nano Banana" during earnings call?this page
- Will Google say "Autonomous" during earnings call?Yes won
- Will Google say "DeepMind" or "Deep Mind" during earnings call?Yes won
- Will Google say "European Commission" during earnings call?No won
- Will Google say "Gemini 3" during earnings call?Yes won
- Will Google say "Ironwood" during earnings call?Yes won
- Will Google say "Privacy" during earnings call?No won
- Will Google say "Quantum" during earnings call?No won
- Will Google say "Regulator" or "Regulation" or "Regulatory" during earnings call?No won
- Will Google say "Search Advertising" or "Search Ad" during earnings call?Yes won
- Will Google say "Wiz" during earnings call?No won
- Will Google say "Youtube Shorts" during earnings call?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.