Earnings · resolved market
Will Google say "European Commission" during earnings call?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x03a433e45179c018673a0cdc250b31af7673c3fc256399db2a6c2949a4daa679
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,091
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,186
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,091 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xeb9d…e31bbacked Yes | 40c | 750$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.1 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +3.3wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +106.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3c59…1766backed No | 60c | 710$426 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +5.3wins | +0.38per pick | 41cpaid | +113.2%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed No | 76c | 346.3$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.03 | 68 | 54.4%37 W · 31 L | +7.4wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 62c | 205.11$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.31 | 118 | 31.4%37 W · 81 L | -8.1wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ac…806ebacked No | 75c | 99.99$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e5c…a67bbacked Yes | 17c | 93.04$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0276…85a7backed Yes | 25c | 80.7$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaaa2…c75fbacked Yes | 26c | 71.87$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 53 | 54.7%29 W · 24 L | +3.9wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e41…ca06backed Yes | 59c | 68$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.2 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14aa…ae2bbacked Yes | 32c | 63.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d90…1e8bbacked Yes | 26c | 50.68$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.37 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked No | 79c | 34.82$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 36cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed No | 80c | 32.5$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd33…4714backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 59cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6090…c78abacked Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6f7…87aebacked No | 70c | 27.81$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.22 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +52.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 73c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.72 | 60 | 40%24 W · 36 L | +4.7wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Google say "European Commission" during earnings call?this page
- Will Google say "Autonomous" during earnings call?Yes won
- Will Google say "DeepMind" or "Deep Mind" during earnings call?Yes won
- Will Google say "Gemini 3" during earnings call?Yes won
- Will Google say "Ironwood" during earnings call?Yes won
- Will Google say "Nano Banana" during earnings call?Yes won
- Will Google say "Privacy" during earnings call?No won
- Will Google say "Quantum" during earnings call?No won
- Will Google say "Regulator" or "Regulation" or "Regulatory" during earnings call?No won
- Will Google say "Search Advertising" or "Search Ad" during earnings call?Yes won
- Will Google say "Wiz" during earnings call?No won
- Will Google say "Youtube Shorts" during earnings call?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.