Earnings · resolved market
Will Google say "Youtube Shorts" during earnings call?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x738b89061a2e6dc6044ef8ca752bad48ad73d625cca5a9beb2622d17e5a4dfe5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,897
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,679
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,897 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3c59…1766backed No | 15c | 765.4$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$650.59 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +5.3wins | +0.38per pick | 41cpaid | +113.2%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed No | 23c | 512.35$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$394.49 | 68 | 54.4%37 W · 31 L | +7.4wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbb79…e05cbacked No | 36c | 190.21$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.33 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 18c | 172.64$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.3 | 118 | 31.4%37 W · 81 L | -8.1wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x78b1…f58fbacked Yes | 79c | 150.69$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.31 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 16c | 112$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.08 | 463 | 14.3%66 W · 397 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66ba…621fbacked No | 23c | 108.06$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.06 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +116.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2a0…9ae4backed Yes | 64c | 100$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54f5…d9c7backed No | 19c | 93.65$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.81per pick | 19cpaid | +436.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1016…c866backed No | 16c | 87.39$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.41 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.15per pick | 47cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x496d…2705backed Yes | 78c | 79.29$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.61 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +81.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe3be…94e4backed No | 34c | 59.08$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.08 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33db…417abacked Yes | 65c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x331d…7e38backed No | 24c | 46.71$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.36 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55e1…772fbacked Yes | 46c | 41.3$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd4e4…abdfbacked Yes | 73c | 37$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.15 | 27 | 70.4%19 W · 8 L | +6.6wins | +0.24per pick | 46cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked No | 38c | 33.93$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.89 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 36cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f40…c5d9backed Yes | 61c | 26.4$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf13…b91abacked No | 79c | 21$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 56c | 19.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.14 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd33…4714backed Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 59cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Google say "Youtube Shorts" during earnings call?this page
- Will Google say "Autonomous" during earnings call?Yes won
- Will Google say "DeepMind" or "Deep Mind" during earnings call?Yes won
- Will Google say "European Commission" during earnings call?No won
- Will Google say "Gemini 3" during earnings call?Yes won
- Will Google say "Ironwood" during earnings call?Yes won
- Will Google say "Nano Banana" during earnings call?Yes won
- Will Google say "Privacy" during earnings call?No won
- Will Google say "Quantum" during earnings call?No won
- Will Google say "Regulator" or "Regulation" or "Regulatory" during earnings call?No won
- Will Google say "Search Advertising" or "Search Ad" during earnings call?Yes won
- Will Google say "Wiz" during earnings call?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.