IPO · resolved market
Will Once Upon a Farm's market cap be between $800M and $850M at market close on IPO day?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb54a2450d389671a789a1c0438fe82e438c11489510fb04b7f17385a4c79139e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- IPOevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,883
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,924
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,883 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in IPO is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in IPO | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc23e…1461backed Yes | 55c | 2,239$1,232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,006.42 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fcd…0c32backed Yes | 16c | 1,464$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,229.76 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 30cpaid | +212.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6537…fcecbacked Yes | 17c | 1,428$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,185.24 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 13cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x695c…10a1backed No | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb2b…a065backed Yes | 17c | 994$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$825.02 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.83per pick | 17cpaid | +488.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8717…f8a1backed Yes | 16c | 684$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$574.56 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | +25%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 23c | 660.15$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$510.66 | 144 | 25.7%37 W · 107 L | -9.8wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0ccb…6c69backed Yes | 17c | 642$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$532.86 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +89.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdfe…6108backed Yes | 17c | 635$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$527.05 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03a3…fdf4backed Yes | 16c | 441$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$370.44 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.22per pick | 35cpaid | +89.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd622…defcbacked Yes | 16c | 357$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.88 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.38per pick | 29cpaid | +364.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8ae…bb88backed Yes | 16c | 340$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.6 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +92.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 21c | 331.45$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.43 | 39 | 23.1%9 W · 30 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82aa…2393backed Yes | 16c | 329$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.36 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +132%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a3…b1dfbacked Yes | 11c | 216.7$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.53 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | +79.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e7…d051backed Yes | 30c | 139$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.65 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +64.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 19c | 117$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.77 | 116 | 34.5%40 W · 76 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb8…d906backed No | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.1 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e40…224ebacked Yes | 15c | 97.32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.32 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.31per pick | 29cpaid | +145.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5bfa…f779backed Yes | 72c | 73.8$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.91 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -65.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf629…bda0backed Yes | 33c | 69.29$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.14 | 79 | 31.6%25 W · 54 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d81…fe57backed Yes | 71c | 64.96$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.58 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -25%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f08…673abacked Yes | 30c | 39.96$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.97 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in IPO and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Once Upon a Farm's market cap be between $800M and $850M at market close on IPO day?this page
- Will Once Upon a Farm's market cap be between $650M and $700M at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will Once Upon a Farm's market cap be between $700M and $750M at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will Once Upon a Farm's market cap be between $750M and $800M at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will Once Upon a Farm's market cap be greater than $850M at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will Once Upon a Farm's market cap be less than $650M at market close on IPO day?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.