IPO · resolved market
Will Once Upon a Farm's market cap be greater than $850M at market close on IPO day?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xce7f731481097cf42dfed78f087ee47751062b8e6a9bea38ef29150c4fd69148
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- IPOevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,539
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,292
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,539 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in IPO is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in IPO | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x965d…7773backed Yes | 13c | 1,525$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.25 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc23e…1461backed Yes | 9c | 1,450$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.82 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3719…bd84backed Yes | 13c | 1,167$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf629…bda0backed Yes | 56c | 1,025$577 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$577 | 79 | 31.6%25 W · 54 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 21c | 735.6$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.06 | 144 | 25.7%37 W · 107 L | -9.8wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xba3d…cdfabacked Yes | 13c | 578$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.14 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9859…0176backed Yes | 13c | 286$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb8…d906backed No | 37c | 276.27$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.35 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfa5…3f52backed Yes | 20c | 237$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a3…b1dfbacked Yes | 12c | 200$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | +79.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 40c | 119.96$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.4 | 32 | 9.4%3 W · 29 L | -4.8wins | -0.15per pick | 24cpaid | -82.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9551…8c45backed Yes | 52c | 87$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.47 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x900e…a4d3backed No | 71c | 80$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.6 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked No | 30c | 77.14$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 25cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f08…673abacked Yes | 62c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffa6…4bbebacked Yes | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.05 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8af…11f4backed Yes | 52c | 42.41$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ba…33b9backed No | 79c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in IPO and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Once Upon a Farm's market cap be greater than $850M at market close on IPO day?this page
- Will Once Upon a Farm's market cap be between $650M and $700M at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will Once Upon a Farm's market cap be between $700M and $750M at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will Once Upon a Farm's market cap be between $750M and $800M at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will Once Upon a Farm's market cap be between $800M and $850M at market close on IPO day?Yes won
- Will Once Upon a Farm's market cap be less than $650M at market close on IPO day?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.