IPO · resolved market
Will Once Upon a Farm's market cap be between $700M and $750M at market close on IPO day?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9b9c9633c186a044718465956fe98eec1cf292304d4601262ae199a9d2de0b77
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- IPOevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,872
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,994
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,872 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in IPO is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in IPO | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc23e…1461backed Yes | 21c | 1,264$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.92 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x910a…91a9backed Yes | 17c | 1,228$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.76 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc895…9bfabacked Yes | 19c | 253$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.07 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 17c | 237$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.29 | 116 | 34.5%40 W · 76 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 79c | 235.57$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.18 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -3.0wins | -0.14per pick | 43cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 47c | 207.55$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.1 | 32 | 9.4%3 W · 29 L | -4.8wins | -0.15per pick | 24cpaid | -82.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a3…b1dfbacked Yes | 16c | 187$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.92 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | +79.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8547…39abbacked No | 78c | 163$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…af4bbacked No | 79c | 140$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.1 | 37 | 27%10 W · 27 L | -3.8wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 54c | 116.77$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.55 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 72cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd32…9563backed Yes | 51c | 92.16$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e7…d051backed Yes | 17c | 87$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.79 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +64.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb40…3612backed No | 80c | 51$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -77.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 36c | 50.79$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.28 | 39 | 23.1%9 W · 30 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1cf…9656backed No | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…652abacked Yes | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0ac…990dbacked Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab2f…40c2backed Yes | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6a1…b1ecbacked No | 69c | 49.42$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x084f…8b8ebacked Yes | 49c | 30.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.18 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.30per pick | 45cpaid | -73%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7e5f…95e2backed Yes | 47c | 28.94$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in IPO and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Once Upon a Farm's market cap be between $700M and $750M at market close on IPO day?this page
- Will Once Upon a Farm's market cap be between $650M and $700M at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will Once Upon a Farm's market cap be between $750M and $800M at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will Once Upon a Farm's market cap be between $800M and $850M at market close on IPO day?Yes won
- Will Once Upon a Farm's market cap be greater than $850M at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will Once Upon a Farm's market cap be less than $650M at market close on IPO day?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.