TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ukraine · resolved market

Will Russia enter Bilytske by December 31?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$43,785
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$39,303

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,785 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 122 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ukraine
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes18c2,793$493 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$493.4925311.5%29 W · 224 L-3.7wins-0.01per pick13cpaid-46.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f69…7df1backed No72c2,716$1,969 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$747.324258.7%142 W · 100 L+14.8wins+0.06per pick53cpaid-1.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc93c…52f1backed Yes30c2,270$689 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$689.0811839.8%47 W · 71 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+1.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfad4…a210backed Yes29c2,182$623 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$623.0313429.9%40 W · 94 L-5.2wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-38%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes27c1,657$446 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$446.1523435.5%83 W · 151 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-29.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9238…b73ebacked Yes16c1,440$236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$235.7635341.9%148 W · 205 L+24.9wins+0.07per pick35cpaid-4.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x9ca1…13b5backed No74c1,163$861 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$301.9114750.3%74 W · 73 L+6.7wins+0.05per pick46cpaid-9.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x658b…c6c1backed Yes31c1,040$324 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$324.0440%0 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5c29…d822backed Yes19c999.99$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.0310625.5%27 W · 79 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-15.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x727b…fdb5backed Yes26c779.84$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.211323.1%3 W · 10 L-1.9wins-0.15per pick38cpaid-45.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1cd9…d4c9backed No72c698.49$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$198.49540%2 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-40%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xabf0…da21backed No67c589.3$394 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$195.011457.1%8 W · 6 L+1.4wins+0.10per pick47cpaid+7.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes12c554.26$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.2930837.7%116 W · 192 L-18.7wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-36%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xab4f…552fbacked No77c516.24$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.2412547.2%59 W · 66 L+5.1wins+0.04per pick43cpaid-6.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes5c508.77$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.775327%37 W · 495 L-14.3wins-0.03per pick10cpaid-66.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeb22…808abacked Yes17c500$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8515029.3%44 W · 106 L-4.6wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-32.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6ab4…21ccbacked Yes24c417.13$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick26cpaid-3.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf416…6ec9backed No73c415.9$304 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.626443.8%28 W · 36 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-16.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb5fa…a1ddbacked Yes30c414.67$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1254158.5%24 W · 17 L+4.9wins+0.12per pick47cpaid+53%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0ff7…a220backed No79c413$326 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.733100%3 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+59.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbe52…32c5backed Yes23c397$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.256431.3%20 W · 44 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-31%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaed3…ba72backed Yes26c391.74$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick31cpaid-11.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdff9…19b4backed Yes15c321.47$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$471145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+9.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf06d…db77backed Yes22c319$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.1820%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdd5d…1614backed No64c313.59$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.592055%11 W · 9 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick61cpaid-18.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcd96…cbdcbacked Yes13c310$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.955123.5%12 W · 39 L-2.3wins-0.05per pick28cpaid-30.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed Yes19c300.57$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.0913128.2%37 W · 94 L-8.8wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-26.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xd17d…d0eebacked No72c300$216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$847843.6%34 W · 44 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-12.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe1f6…595cbacked No80c287$230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e35…1a6cbacked No75c278.37$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.728660.5%52 W · 34 L+3.2wins+0.04per pick57cpaid+12.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5d91…3578backed No73c274.82$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.828055%44 W · 36 L+4.6wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+14.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x27ec…27aebacked No74c269.82$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.82875%6 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.14per pick61cpaid+25.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x97ed…28e1backed Yes21c255$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.5520%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x47a9…b03dbacked Yes18c250$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$451250%6 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes7c239.21$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.94535.7%3 W · 50 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-13.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe6fd…8bc3backed No76c237.57$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.0115855.1%87 W · 71 L+13.0wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+3.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4745…5916backed Yes7c234.04$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.228733.3%29 W · 58 L-6.4wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-32.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa8b7…ee3cbacked Yes17c234.03$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.819932.3%32 W · 67 L-0.4wins0.00per pick33cpaid-31.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaaa8…6375backed Yes5c232.23$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.5660%0 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3240…5d25backed Yes32c230$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.4616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.14per pick30cpaid-77.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x88ae…e412backed No70c220$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.33268.8%22 W · 10 L+3.6wins+0.11per pick58cpaid+16.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6163…58ccbacked Yes20c211$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0624…053fbacked No77c210$161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.21662.5%10 W · 6 L+2.5wins+0.16per pick47cpaid+12.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6828…1056backed No73c210$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5715451.3%79 W · 75 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xfd44…1837backed No78c202$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.441100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6590…ad78backed Yes19c199.99$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3813622.8%31 W · 105 L-8.1wins-0.06per pick29cpaid-47.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x896f…b561backed Yes29c192.45$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$553839.5%15 W · 23 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-15.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3003…efa3backed No67c187.64$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.474452.3%23 W · 21 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes29c187.34$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.5239429.4%116 W · 278 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-39.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xef54…c997backed No73c185.65$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.275461.1%33 W · 21 L+4.1wins+0.08per pick53cpaid+3.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4699…7822backed No71c179.86$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.46160.7%37 W · 24 L+5.1wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+24.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf049…29fdbacked No67c176$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.081100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3c2a…88b8backed No69c162.02$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.961030%3 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick38cpaid-59.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x306c…3dbabacked Yes24c148.15$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$364042.5%17 W · 23 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-10.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x787a…a54dbacked Yes33c141$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.5310%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f49…7458backed No72c138.89$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.892774.1%20 W · 7 L+5.1wins+0.19per pick55cpaid+33.2%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xb055…659dbacked No75c132.6$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.61154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.6wins+0.15per pick40cpaid+34.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x64e8…7819backed Yes31c130$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.851414.3%2 W · 12 L-1.8wins-0.13per pick27cpaid-63.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2196…b03cbacked Yes19c128.5$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.943647.2%17 W · 19 L0.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid-4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x983d…933fbacked Yes33c128.23$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$423129%9 W · 22 L-2.2wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-43.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9f66…ad61backed Yes21c125.75$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.4110%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf477…1c28backed Yes33c121.32$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$403435.3%12 W · 22 L-2.9wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-32.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x72ab…1a3ebacked No69c120$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.54475%33 W · 11 L+4.2wins+0.09per pick66cpaid+12.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc7c2…fcbebacked Yes21c120$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b48…fdcabacked Yes34c118.77$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$404124.4%10 W · 31 L-4.0wins-0.10per pick34cpaid-40.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5056…f991backed No55c115$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.6333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-39.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes27c111$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.2341736.2%151 W · 266 L-25.2wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-21.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xc534…b734backed No75c109.64$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.851250%6 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-25.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6fcd…0c32backed No78c101$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.221100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2e1f…8fdebacked Yes15c100$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153221.9%7 W · 25 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-51.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x97c2…55d6backed Yes16c100$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162250%11 W · 11 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b84…5061backed No67c100$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$333100%3 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+50.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbf73…0436backed No74c99.99$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$265561.8%34 W · 21 L+2.0wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+9.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0aea…ee37backed No72c97.22$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.23475%3 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.18per pick57cpaid+13.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc31a…c560backed Yes27c93.29$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.5850%0 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xbb9f…1893backed Yes15c82$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.415162.7%32 W · 19 L+6.0wins+0.12per pick51cpaid+28.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed No60c79.79$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.2221426.2%56 W · 158 L-7.9wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-21.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed Yes36c78.79$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.3929416%47 W · 247 L-53.7wins-0.18per pick34cpaid-65.8%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick
0x25fb…6734backed No72c70$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.62860.7%17 W · 11 L+2.7wins+0.10per pick51cpaid+18.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x819e…e967backed Yes27c69.98$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.72025%5 W · 15 L-2.7wins-0.14per pick39cpaid-54.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1a25…0eecbacked No72c69.44$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.441957.9%11 W · 8 L+3.3wins+0.17per pick41cpaid+35%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd622…defcbacked No79c67$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.07580%4 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.26per pick54cpaid+59.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5b8d…a1aebacked Yes22c60$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.22540%10 W · 15 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-26.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x80dc…7cf8backed Yes30c60$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181833.3%6 W · 12 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-47.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc8b2…7c84backed No69c59.3$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.636050%30 W · 30 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x06cd…e124backed No71c59$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.11250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-29.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5544…802abacked Yes29c59$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.11366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick60cpaid-11.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x12c2…aa71backed No71c58$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.82250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-29.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5383…bffcbacked Yes35c57.14$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20520%1 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.20per pick40cpaid-60.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7534…d51bbacked Yes20c56$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.240%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe443…c065backed Yes19c53$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.077548%36 W · 39 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-1.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5fa5…b2f6backed Yes38c52.95$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203534.3%12 W · 23 L-5.7wins-0.16per pick50cpaid-38.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xf4b7…f9e3backed No69c50$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.51163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.10per pick54cpaid+8.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc468…009dbacked Yes29c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.57350.7%37 W · 36 L+6.8wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+13.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x02d3…2327backed No80c50$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10650%3 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.20per pick70cpaid-28.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd1f9…4794backed Yes30c48.37$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.364723.4%11 W · 36 L0.0wins0.00per pick23cpaid-21.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8def…8b44backed No64c47.24$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.241154.5%6 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick63cpaid-21.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5e79…e974backed No79c47$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.87450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-17.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4e16…cc3cbacked Yes40c43.1$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.37250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-27.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8217…4936backed No74c41.66$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.753663.9%23 W · 13 L+4.9wins+0.14per pick50cpaid+13.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.