World Politics · resolved market
Will Partido Popular win 28-31 seats in the 2026 Castilla y León regional election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc8be3973a77732011c7d882fe39a7c12c8679773b0cac0a79b715da63ac6e29f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,496
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,496 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd5e7…ebdcbacked Yes | 44c | 1,712$753 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$753.28 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +137.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e17…0d52backed No | 65c | 1,190$774 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$416.5 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8745…4805backed No | 56c | 649$363 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.56 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa938…a1ffbacked No | 56c | 593$332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.92 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59d7…0217backed No | 69c | 566$391 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.46 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.21per pick | 39cpaid | +159.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb214…a6aabacked No | 69c | 514$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.34 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c2…7f19backed No | 56c | 470$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47eb…8195backed Yes | 35c | 434$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.9 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d9…08d2backed Yes | 35c | 431$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.85 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +51.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x027a…ea13backed Yes | 25c | 405.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.21 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fcd…0c32backed Yes | 31c | 387$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.97 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0caf…e065backed Yes | 31c | 357$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.67 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa1ac…d8c5backed Yes | 31c | 336$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.16 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11e9…8e90backed Yes | 35c | 325$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab5c…b289backed Yes | 45c | 251.9$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.74 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 53c | 246.19$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.76 | 322 | 55%177 W · 145 L | +14.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8200…df37backed No | 53c | 227.36$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.88 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5dc0…2718backed No | 74c | 198.1$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c00…0332backed Yes | 44c | 175.47$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.86 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf888…1c04backed Yes | 44c | 149$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.56 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +22%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2db7…8f9bbacked Yes | 42c | 146.48$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.6 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 57c | 121.38$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.07 | 260 | 52.3%136 W · 124 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda86…6ff9backed Yes | 43c | 115.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b91…2709backed Yes | 31c | 109.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.4 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.56 | 990 | 17.2%170 W · 820 L | -148.8wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x9163…82aebacked Yes | 28c | 95.29$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.05 | 227 | 25.1%57 W · 170 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb3b…6280backed Yes | 50c | 91.15$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52b3…3a58backed Yes | 32c | 87.11$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.26 | 38 | 26.3%10 W · 28 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bf7…9e9abacked Yes | 63c | 79.89$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed No | 37c | 75.09$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.31 | 53 | 34%18 W · 35 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2139…00f3backed Yes | 43c | 75$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.25 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 55cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b78…d85fbacked Yes | 50c | 67.75$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e71…39cebacked Yes | 39c | 64.19$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | -4.4wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc364…81a5backed Yes | 41c | 62.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.31 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x467d…b913backed Yes | 38c | 52.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c6e…b6a5backed Yes | 48c | 52.35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x981e…d368backed No | 56c | 52$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.88 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +51.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9aeb…9058backed No | 80c | 51.91$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.38 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f68…2238backed No | 56c | 51$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.44 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.33per pick | 47cpaid | +76.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x280f…60a9backed No | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf253…b484backed Yes | 30c | 49.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 40c | 49.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.78 | 563 | 14.6%82 W · 481 L | -39.3wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc230…7971backed Yes | 52c | 47.62$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a41…1160backed No | 56c | 46$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.24 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd01b…c208backed Yes | 47c | 42.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ee9…4b53backed No | 60c | 41.83$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.83 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1c8…c5fcbacked Yes | 42c | 39.18$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.36 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad42…c918backed No | 67c | 37$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.36 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafac…8e76backed Yes | 42c | 35.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 35c | 33.12$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 56c | 32.81$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.43 | 154 | 46.8%72 W · 82 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa54…9ad6backed Yes | 44c | 31.82$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ef0…0c87backed Yes | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe05a…0bdebacked Yes | 54c | 30.34$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.31 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd087…f341backed Yes | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4aab…cf43backed No | 62c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 56c | 26.98$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.84 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fdf…af9ebacked No | 57c | 22.4$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.53 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 58c | 19.62$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.19 | 106 | 52.8%56 W · 50 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba23…814dbacked No | 62c | 17.55$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Partido Popular win 28-31 seats in the 2026 Castilla y León regional election?this page
- Will Partido Popular win 32-35 seats in the 2026 Castilla y León regional election?Yes won
- Will Partido Popular win 36-39 seats in the 2026 Castilla y León regional election?No won
- Will Partido Popular win 40-43 seats in the 2026 Castilla y León regional election?No won
- Will Partido Popular win <28 seats in the 2026 Castilla y León regional election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.