World Politics · resolved market
Will Partido Popular win 32-35 seats in the 2026 Castilla y León regional election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xadb5c45ea4a87f2cc3abad0eae070289e008af0433e4b2a17a589b0f49474bdc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,197
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,197 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6813…39e6backed Yes | 56c | 444$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.36 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe95b…1f15backed No | 44c | 444$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80f9…925dbacked Yes | 45c | 387.48$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaffd…b072backed No | 44c | 344$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.36 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9163…82aebacked No | 34c | 334.5$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.56 | 227 | 25.1%57 W · 170 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab92…15ddbacked No | 65c | 240$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 52c | 235.79$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.21 | 322 | 55%177 W · 145 L | +14.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab5c…b289backed Yes | 43c | 231.98$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.98 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa255…2ffcbacked Yes | 52c | 203.28$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.86 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef70…eff0backed No | 57c | 176.89$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c00…0332backed Yes | 44c | 175.01$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.7 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x027a…ea13backed No | 11c | 169.94$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.16 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2eb…5751backed Yes | 35c | 155$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.75 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +49.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf98b…2e3abacked No | 58c | 149.64$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.96 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9b…c668backed No | 17c | 145.32$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5261…6f03backed No | 71c | 140.59$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.4 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb5a9…1a14backed Yes | 42c | 125.95$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.95 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe584…36b2backed Yes | 56c | 122$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.68 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +106.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf92a…9134backed Yes | 56c | 115$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.6 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +116.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 52c | 113.75$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.18 | 260 | 52.3%136 W · 124 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd424…8835backed Yes | 45c | 112.14$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +124.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 49c | 111.04$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.83 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf351…6284backed Yes | 56c | 107$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.08 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 33c | 105.49$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.97 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52b3…3a58backed Yes | 34c | 104.57$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.21 | 38 | 26.3%10 W · 28 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c6e…b6a5backed Yes | 72c | 103.96$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.96 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed No | 49c | 101.84$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.06 | 53 | 34%18 W · 35 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2139…00f3backed Yes | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.91 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 55cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 48c | 99.96$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.63 | 990 | 17.2%170 W · 820 L | -148.8wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5051…b364backed Yes | 56c | 99.5$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.25 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf22…c4b8backed Yes | 67c | 98.23$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.66 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8200…df37backed Yes | 51c | 97.47$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.47 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 26c | 89.14$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.87 | 394 | 14%55 W · 339 L | -71.9wins | -0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 23c | 88.46$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.58 | 142 | 50%71 W · 71 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x935c…460bbacked Yes | 47c | 86.41$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.41 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad70…4ccfbacked Yes | 46c | 86.13$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.73 | 72 | 16.7%12 W · 60 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7a8…7efabacked Yes | 35c | 85$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.25 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.37per pick | 38cpaid | +95.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee46…2f8abacked Yes | 47c | 84.81$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.81 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2db7…8f9bbacked Yes | 45c | 84.57$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.57 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 56c | 82.8$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.68 | 154 | 46.8%72 W · 82 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad42…c918backed No | 63c | 63$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.68 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc230…7971backed Yes | 40c | 62.47$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.47 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed No | 66c | 55.36$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.54 | 110 | 69.1%76 W · 34 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2afd…deb4backed No | 31c | 53.72$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 68 | 36.8%25 W · 43 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa18c…c346backed Yes | 45c | 44.29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.29 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.36per pick | 44cpaid | +67.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed No | 59c | 44$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 68c | 36.84$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe17a…9462backed Yes | 56c | 35.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.98 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -10%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 50c | 31.36$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.83 | 163 | 43.6%71 W · 92 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd70…de3fbacked Yes | 41c | 31.34$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +141.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbcf7…4307backed Yes | 39c | 30.56$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +154.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3753…dbafbacked Yes | 76c | 27.77$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.77 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 51c | 26.19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.36 | 106 | 52.8%56 W · 50 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x550d…697fbacked Yes | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf08…cf97backed No | 53c | 21.82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.51 | 93 | 39.8%37 W · 56 L | -8.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb5ee…d27dbacked No | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fdf…af9ebacked No | 66c | 19.71$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.07 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95dc…4b45backed No | 57c | 18.74$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.68 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Partido Popular win 32-35 seats in the 2026 Castilla y León regional election?this page
- Will Partido Popular win 28-31 seats in the 2026 Castilla y León regional election?No won
- Will Partido Popular win 36-39 seats in the 2026 Castilla y León regional election?No won
- Will Partido Popular win 40-43 seats in the 2026 Castilla y León regional election?No won
- Will Partido Popular win <28 seats in the 2026 Castilla y León regional election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.