South American Leagues · resolved market
Will Mirassol FC win on 2026-04-25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x00e74603990a4430b2a8bdb57f53a7da56d10a77c0a0f61fabe86bc27e2cd441
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,658
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,366
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,658 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Yes | 38c | 3,314$1,258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,257.61 | 1,328 | 57%757 W · 571 L | +57.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d6a…4adabacked Yes | 26c | 1,538$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 199 | 63.8%127 W · 72 L | +19.3wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 38c | 1,338$508 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$508.4 | 271 | 33.9%92 W · 179 L | -10.7wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd876…4c8bbacked Yes | 18c | 1,331$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.62 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe970…d76abacked No | 78c | 1,265$987 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.45 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb5…2b6abacked Yes | 2c | 1,157$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.41 | 391 | 27.1%106 W · 285 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Yes | 20c | 966.76$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.25 | 1,070 | 47.4%507 W · 563 L | -46.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf40a…ea0abacked No | 63c | 757.85$474 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.89 | 82 | 68.3%56 W · 26 L | +8.6wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 14c | 743.51$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.09 | 3,749 | 38.2%1,431 W · 2,318 L | -33.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Yes | 22c | 500$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.98 | 184 | 52.2%96 W · 88 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9a…a9a8backed No | 77c | 499.36$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.85 | 119 | 63.9%76 W · 43 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a92…6941backed No | 64c | 413.39$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.77 | 144 | 43.1%62 W · 82 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Yes | 35c | 315.18$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.87 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Yes | 38c | 302.32$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.88 | 167 | 40.1%67 W · 100 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 18c | 299.37$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.5 | 151 | 28.5%43 W · 108 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x664a…fc5fbacked Yes | 34c | 195$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.39 | 308 | 47.7%147 W · 161 L | +13.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd13e…f2d6backed No | 77c | 128.08$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.46 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 17c | 120.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.37 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…4f88backed Yes | 39c | 113.24$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.03 | 134 | 51.5%69 W · 65 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0514…def7backed Yes | 19c | 103.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.59 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 23c | 99.87$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.97 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 22c | 97.64$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.48 | 1,944 | 51.3%998 W · 946 L | +40.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35ac…0c64backed No | 71c | 94.21$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.77 | 70 | 61.4%43 W · 27 L | +8.0wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +56.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4781…336dbacked No | 78c | 75.98$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.72 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7edb…7993backed Yes | 26c | 73.96$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 363 | 39.9%145 W · 218 L | -16.8wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…9241backed No | 78c | 62.51$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.75 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.3wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +70.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9079…b19bbacked Yes | 38c | 62.33$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.68 | 199 | 53.3%106 W · 93 L | +11.0wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c6b…28b6backed Yes | 21c | 58.76$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.58 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Yes | 23c | 56.93$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.09 | 341 | 55.1%188 W · 153 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Yes | 23c | 53.26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 700 | 55.7%390 W · 310 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked No | 77c | 51.01$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.73 | 1,443 | 45.9%662 W · 781 L | -22.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 77c | 50.25$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.56 | 1,487 | 48.7%724 W · 763 L | -17.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 76c | 49.17$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.8 | 1,231 | 53.9%663 W · 568 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68aa…ccc8backed No | 77c | 48.67$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.19 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d6b…aaa3backed Yes | 24c | 47.72$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 52 | 34.6%18 W · 34 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x595c…3b03backed Yes | 34c | 39.38$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.39 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.7wins | +0.21per pick | 48cpaid | +48.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5004…c07bbacked Yes | 37c | 39.01$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.43 | 68 | 55.9%38 W · 30 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 79c | 37.07$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.67 | 1,444 | 56.4%815 W · 629 L | +51.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed No | 76c | 36.92$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.86 | 1,282 | 53.7%689 W · 593 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9c1…be67backed Yes | 36c | 34.88$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.56 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.8wins | +0.28per pick | 52cpaid | +63.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…4e86backed No | 78c | 25.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.56 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 76cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0693…96f1backed No | 78c | 21.47$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.72 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 75cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46dc…92c3backed No | 79c | 18.47$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.81 | 72 | 54.2%39 W · 33 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa923…6704backed No | 77c | 17.94$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.13 | 290 | 53.8%156 W · 134 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed No | 78c | 17.79$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.91 | 636 | 44.7%284 W · 352 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2815…7f0cbacked No | 78c | 15.18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.34 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Mirassol FC win on 2026-04-25?this page
- Will São Paulo FC vs. Mirassol FC end in a draw?No won
- Will São Paulo FC win on 2026-04-25?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.