Music · resolved market
Will Drake officially release Iceman by February 28, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe809bf6745a3fa1abc6d4e434d34000f4c699bd3a20d4799e3012f37a4d4cd44
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,309
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,691
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,309 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8564…4b2ebacked Yes | 12c | 1,655$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.2 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +7.1wins | +0.17per pick | 34cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 20c | 974.33$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.57 | 66 | 28.8%19 W · 47 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1a…6bccbacked Yes | 12c | 831$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.67 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf811…69babacked No | 78c | 565$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.05 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 2c | 479.87$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 25 | 0%0 W · 25 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed Yes | 14c | 478$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.4 | 78 | 44.9%35 W · 43 L | +6.1wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xea52…4463backed Yes | 7c | 412.45$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…d1a8backed Yes | 8c | 369.27$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 11c | 320$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 7c | 304.39$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.31 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff67…a1c9backed Yes | 29c | 250$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Yes | 5c | 248.92$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.91 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 7c | 241.28$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 37 | 8.1%3 W · 34 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffe4…cd2dbacked Yes | 6c | 237.1$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d62…27e0backed No | 78c | 187.39$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c6b…28b6backed Yes | 49c | 159.98$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 22c | 138.72$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.84 | 391 | 16.1%63 W · 328 L | -44.4wins | -0.11per pick | 27cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 12c | 125$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.48 | 77 | 10.4%8 W · 69 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbe9…74aabacked Yes | 12c | 116.67$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbea0…e19dbacked No | 51c | 102.13$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.98 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.9wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +53.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3165…ddddbacked Yes | 16c | 94.84$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87f4…49e7backed No | 51c | 84.12$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.22 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 21c | 68.84$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 105 | 17.1%18 W · 87 L | -5.3wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x239d…f8a5backed Yes | 49c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.2 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 29cpaid | -69.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc88…b7eebacked Yes | 46c | 51.26$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03f0…63e0backed Yes | 48c | 46.27$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.41 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +2.8wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +92.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7df6…ac3bbacked No | 51c | 40.83$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.2 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb61…9969backed Yes | 47c | 26.26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f45…1f03backed No | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9934…6078backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddec…4b75backed No | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Drake officially release Iceman by February 28, 2026?this page
- Will Drake officially release Iceman by April 30, 2026?No won
- Will Drake officially release Iceman by June 30, 2026?Yes won
- Will Drake officially release Iceman by March 31, 2026?No won
- Will Drake officially release Iceman by May 15, 2026?Yes won
- Will Drake officially release Iceman by May 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will Drake officially release Iceman by May 8, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.