Music · resolved market
Will Drake officially release Iceman by May 15, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xee6d3d1a2cc873bf79ebc2567d9e01d7d83affee846a6b686ea187d6bee36d32
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $61,536
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $59,984
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $61,536 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe078…0de5backed No | 1c | 11,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d30…a5b1backed No | 19c | 4,862$937 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$937.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96e8…d240backed No | 5c | 4,480$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.32 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -26%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ca6…fbeebacked No | 5c | 2,404$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…65abbacked No | 8c | 2,302$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.94 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b2c…2151backed No | 9c | 1,346$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08f2…2a6fbacked No | 6c | 1,099$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda34…91dabacked No | 9c | 1,016$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.47 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 7cpaid | +203%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x732d…201abacked No | 48c | 834.7$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb827…9998backed No | 19c | 632.74$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 5c | 629.12$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.43 | 163 | 34.4%56 W · 107 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc98b…6430backed No | 8c | 549.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.7 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x714f…66d5backed No | 7c | 549.58$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.92 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.11per pick | 23cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb784…3581backed No | 9c | 527.12$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.89 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 64c | 505.96$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.15 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 11c | 421$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.31 | 71 | 45.1%32 W · 39 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2eae…a25fbacked No | 10c | 414.9$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2953…2ed5backed Yes | 50c | 400$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbc…b72dbacked No | 6c | 395.38$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1547…d066backed Yes | 69c | 373.81$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.59 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -15%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec23…ac24backed No | 9c | 333.95$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa951…8a2fbacked No | 12c | 290$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.8 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2cb…6dc4backed No | 9c | 269.31$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.29 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d00…e1e0backed No | 15c | 259.99$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 10c | 258.98$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.74 | 77 | 10.4%8 W · 69 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 10c | 239.39$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.42 | 89 | 23.6%21 W · 68 L | -7.4wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…9e00backed No | 5c | 236$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2057…235bbacked No | 8c | 234.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3de6…e560backed No | 6c | 205.15$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.86 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b75…3fd1backed Yes | 51c | 200$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc2c2…12e7backed No | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecf…af11backed No | 12c | 200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -36%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a06…3129backed No | 10c | 199.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa3…841cbacked Yes | 77c | 182.86$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.66 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb8…f7debacked No | 9c | 171$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +2.8wins | +0.21per pick | 17cpaid | +81%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1228…f18cbacked No | 9c | 160.04$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6777…97ffbacked No | 12c | 157.42$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.89 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13cd…64d7backed No | 15c | 156.84$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.53 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6746…d842backed No | 14c | 154.86$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe41…9f23backed No | 12c | 150$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85f9…86ddbacked No | 15c | 133.84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe36b…66a1backed No | 13c | 127.91$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6def…0d85backed No | 24c | 125$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x384f…f37abacked Yes | 76c | 125$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c42…0452backed No | 13c | 121.11$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf0b…422dbacked No | 25c | 119.95$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f48…202cbacked No | 11c | 119.27$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 15c | 110$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ac…806ebacked No | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.27per pick | 53cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4873…b9c2backed No | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdabd…ed1cbacked No | 12c | 88.39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf745…b479backed No | 13c | 85.62$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cef…fd37backed No | 19c | 78.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef1f…5868backed Yes | 20c | 78.56$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.85 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f8d…cf69backed Yes | 76c | 65.96$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.96 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -56%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb68f…6fd2backed Yes | 58c | 54.63$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.05 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -43%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xded8…d5ebbacked Yes | 46c | 45$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +116.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 80c | 24.53$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.98 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23d7…0f30backed Yes | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 77cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Drake officially release Iceman by May 15, 2026?this page
- Will Drake officially release Iceman by April 30, 2026?No won
- Will Drake officially release Iceman by February 28, 2026?No won
- Will Drake officially release Iceman by June 30, 2026?Yes won
- Will Drake officially release Iceman by March 31, 2026?No won
- Will Drake officially release Iceman by May 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will Drake officially release Iceman by May 8, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.