Music · resolved market
Will Drake officially release Iceman by June 30, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x38219338712a8356b39fe2adcb159eb9c3b59a2423965261f208e16c63f67c0b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $89,571
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $64,343
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $89,571 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed No | 4c | 11,746$467 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$466.57 | 65 | 20%13 W · 52 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3de6…e560backed No | 2c | 7,552$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.28 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96e8…d240backed No | 3c | 6,872$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.62 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -26%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadb6…c177backed No | 6c | 4,682$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.85 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda34…91dabacked No | 1c | 4,221$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.28 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 7cpaid | +203%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e66…41e7backed No | 1c | 2,252$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.16 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 2cpaid | +208.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e3…4d7ebacked No | 4c | 2,057$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.19 | 63 | 39.7%25 W · 38 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f95…bf06backed No | 3c | 1,919$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 2c | 1,743$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.92 | 58 | 3.4%2 W · 56 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | +202.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed No | 6c | 1,455$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.72 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b84…cddfbacked No | 6c | 1,443$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 2c | 1,260$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.62 | 67 | 10.4%7 W · 60 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked No | 3c | 1,203$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.87 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.16per pick | 12cpaid | +124.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3fab…261dbacked No | 2c | 1,009$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d0a…f795backed No | 2c | 962.15$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0c0…c573backed No | 14c | 912.61$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.66 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf66c…4ab1backed No | 1c | 899.82$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed No | 2c | 800$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 69 | 5.8%4 W · 65 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | +148.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 13c | 730.36$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.77 | 89 | 23.6%21 W · 68 L | -7.4wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd334…fcc2backed No | 3c | 589.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdff5…2cc8backed No | 4c | 557.54$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 3c | 550.47$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.68 | 77 | 10.4%8 W · 69 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d86…13b8backed No | 5c | 499.89$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd8e…4e20backed No | 2c | 497.47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7460…4319backed No | 3c | 496.26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2375…691fbacked No | 6c | 474$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.18 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +75.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e62…b6ffbacked No | 11c | 439.18$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1663…2074backed No | 9c | 426.09$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49af…6e9bbacked No | 4c | 307.72$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 78c | 306.63$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.71 | 122 | 34.4%42 W · 80 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x172d…a5febacked No | 3c | 301.84$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0251…07ffbacked No | 3c | 292.06$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17dd…b652backed No | 7c | 285.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf524…8178backed No | 12c | 277.83$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.27 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 16cpaid | -80.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb3…d04abacked No | 6c | 252.77$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 10c | 249.43$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.25 | 71 | 21.1%15 W · 56 L | -4.9wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6746…d842backed No | 8c | 244.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.54 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x083c…5af0backed No | 13c | 233.19$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac16…4f44backed No | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e4a…3982backed No | 11c | 175$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03f8…47afbacked No | 7c | 165.9$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62ea…b955backed No | 31c | 161.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 12c | 160$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 78c | 159.79$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.12 | 226 | 40.3%91 W · 135 L | -10.9wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x92eb…986abacked Yes | 80c | 150$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 75c | 148$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.48 | 66 | 28.8%19 W · 47 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3458…b5a7backed Yes | 79c | 126.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60b3…3fb3backed No | 10c | 120$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…9e00backed No | 9c | 119$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 75c | 112.84$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.21 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x66a7…6569backed No | 39c | 111$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.29 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00cd…b94abacked No | 10c | 110.54$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51f2…38efbacked No | 16c | 108.87$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.97 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90ee…801bbacked Yes | 60c | 79.43$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.77 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +3.1wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 37c | 74$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 55 | 63.6%35 W · 20 L | +5.3wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +19%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4d8c…facfbacked Yes | 79c | 63.61$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.61 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x918f…6672backed No | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2e1…4c0abacked No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce25…4e7dbacked Yes | 61c | 46$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.94 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.23per pick | 37cpaid | +95.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x14ba…e6cebacked Yes | 61c | 37$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.43 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +315.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe72c…bbf0backed Yes | 61c | 28$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.92 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.29per pick | 51cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9a70…5febbacked Yes | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed Yes | 65c | 19.65$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.85 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4011…14f9backed Yes | 78c | 19.49$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5792…5cbbbacked Yes | 78c | 19.23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f2…2fc1backed Yes | 78c | 17.95$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2004…914abacked Yes | 75c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec38…4c89backed Yes | 78c | 15.38$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.38 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaab…8a16backed Yes | 78c | 14.1$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Drake officially release Iceman by June 30, 2026?this page
- Will Drake officially release Iceman by April 30, 2026?No won
- Will Drake officially release Iceman by February 28, 2026?No won
- Will Drake officially release Iceman by March 31, 2026?No won
- Will Drake officially release Iceman by May 15, 2026?Yes won
- Will Drake officially release Iceman by May 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will Drake officially release Iceman by May 8, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.