TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by August 15?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$199,726
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$216,003

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $199,726 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 105 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc0bf…b4cdbacked No14c34,198$4,816 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,815.7110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd785…b5b7backed No3c27,619$783 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$783.4810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xafab…b922backed No5c12,062$564 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$563.610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x30fc…510dbacked No10c7,013$667 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$667.0510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3038…9368backed Yes78c5,214$4,088 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,125.92666.7%4 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick71cpaid-7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed No1c4,136$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.071691.8%3 W · 166 L+0.8wins0.00per pick1cpaid-52.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd538…1757backed No1c3,942$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.5410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeab6…d4c6backed No8c2,959$247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$246.857317.8%13 W · 60 L-4.9wins-0.07per pick24cpaid-60.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf52a…1646backed No19c2,119$406 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$405.8810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb886…81b3backed No10c1,642$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.42626.9%7 W · 19 L+1.8wins+0.07per pick20cpaid-40.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No6c1,265$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.821,43110.1%145 W · 1,286 L-4.9wins0.00per pick10cpaid-12.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaa99…dbbfbacked Yes78c1,143$888 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$255.762751.9%14 W · 13 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick47cpaid-19.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa65f…dffbbacked No21c1,120$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c0a…a2c3backed No8c1,095$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.8918445.7%84 W · 100 L-6.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-11%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x645a…fd84backed No27c1,094$297 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2974045%18 W · 22 L-4.1wins-0.10per pick55cpaid-15.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked No4c1,073$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.2326632.7%87 W · 179 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-11.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5533…51babacked No2c1,061$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.64283.6%1 W · 27 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick3cpaid-10.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4fad…1480backed Yes78c999.96$780 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$219.992939.2%27 W · 266 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick10cpaid+25.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe432…4610backed No16c897.37$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.2510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xff13…6d35backed No23c758.57$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.6760%0 W · 6 L-1.9wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc39c…21e5backed No14c718.59$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf5d6…f8c3backed No17c630.79$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x56e2…269bbacked Yes76c630.42$480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.425100%5 W · 0 L+1.6wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+50%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x167a…91d5backed No3c510.69$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.536835.3%24 W · 44 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-28.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked No3c496.13$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.1719315.5%30 W · 163 L-5.3wins-0.03per pick18cpaid-20.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x593c…4b27backed Yes80c482.34$385 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.512100%2 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+27.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8fbe…9ef9backed No13c470.6$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.8610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x0da2…ef4abacked No14c420.92$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.99425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick21cpaid-44.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x05d8…31cfbacked Yes79c402.72$319 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.98683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.24per pick59cpaid+24.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked No9c401.35$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.122543.5%9 W · 245 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-50.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xff67…b7f2backed No18c400$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed No16c372.4$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.7524110.8%26 W · 215 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick12cpaid-34%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa815…9cbebacked No3c354$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.371676.6%11 W · 156 L-0.2wins0.00per pick7cpaid-27.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0659…4f61backed No14c326.39$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.1230%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x453f…278ebacked No27c321.63$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.0310%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf524…8178backed No6c309.07$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.8613225%33 W · 99 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-22.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2211…f15bbacked Yes79c300$238 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.73875%6 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.19per pick56cpaid+15.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xcd76…77bdbacked No17c297.16$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.494944.9%22 W · 27 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+14.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x31a4…1ee7backed No24c292.16$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.95933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-47.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1597…1f25backed No20c280.81$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.4910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed No5c269.03$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.3231635.1%111 W · 205 L-11.1wins-0.04per pick39cpaid+6.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf455…49a4backed No21c251.21$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.4610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc60e…1a8ebacked No22c228.09$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd764…215cbacked No22c226.32$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x45d6…5401backed No22c218.18$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x54a8…2837backed No19c212.46$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.0910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x638f…cda3backed No11c209.65$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb7a…c4e6backed No23c198.23$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.0510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9cb3…1367backed Yes79c190.36$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.8511647.4%55 W · 61 L+5.6wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+2.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1d4a…349ebacked No19c186.89$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.1710%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe9e7…108ebacked No19c184.23$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc76…5f55backed No17c176.47$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301040%4 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid-5.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0c01…797dbacked No20c174.67$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.93366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.6wins+0.53per pick14cpaid+554.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x328b…fa07backed No18c166.36$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.94475%3 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.26per pick49cpaid+33.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5648…314ebacked No19c161.09$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbd02…60e0backed Yes78c160.98$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.952030%6 W · 14 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick25cpaid-32.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5c6b…28b6backed No19c156.83$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed No18c153.57$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.1814126.2%37 W · 104 L-7.6wins-0.05per pick32cpaid-26.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa34e…0b22backed No20c152.5$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes78c150$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$331,02228%286 W · 736 L+1.6wins0.00per pick28cpaid-34.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x168f…9e00backed No8c138.63$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.0910634.9%37 W · 69 L-3.1wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-8.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x028b…2b23backed No23c120.92$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.8110%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd60d…19a9backed No16c120.26$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.2420%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x659a…9568backed No21c120$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.930%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x36e5…fd74backed No19c114.92$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.0240%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb16e…9488backed No16c114.26$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.8210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f2a…0dc5backed No20c112.96$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.5910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x31f3…6be3backed No23c108.52$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.9610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa068…c0d6backed No17c108.36$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.4210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe391…e00fbacked Yes80c105.88$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.23333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.25per pick58cpaid-58.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x762a…ec74backed No13c103.73$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.4810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2aea…afe5backed No11c102.55$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.95520%1 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.19per pick39cpaid-46.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x55cd…8fc1backed Yes77c100$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$232166.7%14 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick66cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc2e0…5a1bbacked No20c100$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3191…c919backed Yes75c100$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$251758.8%10 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+15.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x05a5…25a8backed No20c100$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x51de…9e4abacked No22c100$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2220%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6e14…3818backed No19c99.34$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No19c97.18$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.6439414%55 W · 339 L-71.9wins-0.18per pick32cpaid-73.1%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick
0x78b1…f58fbacked No13c93.04$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.12152.4%11 W · 10 L+2.1wins+0.10per pick42cpaid+8.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf2ec…186dbacked No22c92.34$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5812…8164backed No21c90.72$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.7310%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9bc1…b867backed Yes74c81.98$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.483100%3 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+88.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x253f…4e65backed No18c81.11$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9b3f…0fa5backed No22c80.5$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.731872.2%13 W · 5 L+2.8wins+0.16per pick56cpaid+19.7%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x7079…a49fbacked No22c78.98$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.1310%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1719…b2a5backed No19c78.8$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9ad9…7e66backed No16c70.89$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.2510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4916…f56fbacked No20c68.9$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.8811045.5%50 W · 60 L-6.2wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-15.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe49b…f9a4backed No30c60.69$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc245…34f9backed No32c58.84$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.8310%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x66a1…80d9backed Yes79c58.2$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.221358.1%11 W · 124 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick7cpaid-28%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x973a…bf0fbacked No20c50$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe391…8432backed No20c50$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1072…f737backed No21c49.13$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.3210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes60c47.86$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.1413343.6%58 W · 75 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-6.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xde70…62a0backed Yes80c38.99$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.99333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-58.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf528…7e5bbacked Yes74c38.17$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.9215076%114 W · 36 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick74cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7a16…518bbacked Yes73c34.17$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.172653.8%14 W · 12 L+2.2wins+0.08per pick45cpaid-0.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xebed…04c2backed Yes78c30.97$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.87580%4 W · 1 L+1.6wins+0.31per pick49cpaid+184.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.