World Politics · resolved market
Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by August 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x35fc6fb38021d969a3e0987a7eb51517acfc3b1a3faf3ebfd31afc3874a876d7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $199,726
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $216,003
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $199,726 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 105 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc0bf…b4cdbacked No | 14c | 34,198$4,816 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,815.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd785…b5b7backed No | 3c | 27,619$783 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$783.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafab…b922backed No | 5c | 12,062$564 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$563.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30fc…510dbacked No | 10c | 7,013$667 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$667.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3038…9368backed Yes | 78c | 5,214$4,088 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,125.92 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 1c | 4,136$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.07 | 169 | 1.8%3 W · 166 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd538…1757backed No | 1c | 3,942$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 8c | 2,959$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.85 | 73 | 17.8%13 W · 60 L | -4.9wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -60.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf52a…1646backed No | 19c | 2,119$406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$405.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb886…81b3backed No | 10c | 1,642$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.4 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 6c | 1,265$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.82 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa99…dbbfbacked Yes | 78c | 1,143$888 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.76 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa65f…dffbbacked No | 21c | 1,120$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 8c | 1,095$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.89 | 184 | 45.7%84 W · 100 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -11%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x645a…fd84backed No | 27c | 1,094$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | -4.1wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 4c | 1,073$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.23 | 266 | 32.7%87 W · 179 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5533…51babacked No | 2c | 1,061$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.64 | 28 | 3.6%1 W · 27 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 78c | 999.96$780 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.99 | 293 | 9.2%27 W · 266 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe432…4610backed No | 16c | 897.37$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff13…6d35backed No | 23c | 758.57$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.67 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc39c…21e5backed No | 14c | 718.59$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d6…f8c3backed No | 17c | 630.79$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56e2…269bbacked Yes | 76c | 630.42$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.42 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +50%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x167a…91d5backed No | 3c | 510.69$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.53 | 68 | 35.3%24 W · 44 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 3c | 496.13$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.17 | 193 | 15.5%30 W · 163 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x593c…4b27backed Yes | 80c | 482.34$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.51 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbe…9ef9backed No | 13c | 470.6$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0da2…ef4abacked No | 14c | 420.92$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.99 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05d8…31cfbacked Yes | 79c | 402.72$319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.98 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.24per pick | 59cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked No | 9c | 401.35$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.12 | 254 | 3.5%9 W · 245 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff67…b7f2backed No | 18c | 400$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 16c | 372.4$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.75 | 241 | 10.8%26 W · 215 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -34%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked No | 3c | 354$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.37 | 167 | 6.6%11 W · 156 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0659…4f61backed No | 14c | 326.39$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.12 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x453f…278ebacked No | 27c | 321.63$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf524…8178backed No | 6c | 309.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.86 | 132 | 25%33 W · 99 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2211…f15bbacked Yes | 79c | 300$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.73 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd76…77bdbacked No | 17c | 297.16$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.49 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31a4…1ee7backed No | 24c | 292.16$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.95 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1597…1f25backed No | 20c | 280.81$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 5c | 269.03$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 316 | 35.1%111 W · 205 L | -11.1wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf455…49a4backed No | 21c | 251.21$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc60e…1a8ebacked No | 22c | 228.09$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd764…215cbacked No | 22c | 226.32$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45d6…5401backed No | 22c | 218.18$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54a8…2837backed No | 19c | 212.46$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x638f…cda3backed No | 11c | 209.65$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…c4e6backed No | 23c | 198.23$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 79c | 190.36$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.85 | 116 | 47.4%55 W · 61 L | +5.6wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d4a…349ebacked No | 19c | 186.89$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9e7…108ebacked No | 19c | 184.23$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc76…5f55backed No | 17c | 176.47$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c01…797dbacked No | 20c | 174.67$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.93 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.53per pick | 14cpaid | +554.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x328b…fa07backed No | 18c | 166.36$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.94 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5648…314ebacked No | 19c | 161.09$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd02…60e0backed Yes | 78c | 160.98$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.95 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c6b…28b6backed No | 19c | 156.83$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed No | 18c | 153.57$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.18 | 141 | 26.2%37 W · 104 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa34e…0b22backed No | 20c | 152.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 78c | 150$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…9e00backed No | 8c | 138.63$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.09 | 106 | 34.9%37 W · 69 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x028b…2b23backed No | 23c | 120.92$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd60d…19a9backed No | 16c | 120.26$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x659a…9568backed No | 21c | 120$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.9 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36e5…fd74backed No | 19c | 114.92$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.02 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb16e…9488backed No | 16c | 114.26$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f2a…0dc5backed No | 20c | 112.96$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31f3…6be3backed No | 23c | 108.52$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa068…c0d6backed No | 17c | 108.36$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe391…e00fbacked Yes | 80c | 105.88$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.23 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x762a…ec74backed No | 13c | 103.73$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2aea…afe5backed No | 11c | 102.55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x55cd…8fc1backed Yes | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc2e0…5a1bbacked No | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3191…c919backed Yes | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05a5…25a8backed No | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51de…9e4abacked No | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e14…3818backed No | 19c | 99.34$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 19c | 97.18$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.64 | 394 | 14%55 W · 339 L | -71.9wins | -0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x78b1…f58fbacked No | 13c | 93.04$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ec…186dbacked No | 22c | 92.34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5812…8164backed No | 21c | 90.72$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bc1…b867backed Yes | 74c | 81.98$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.48 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x253f…4e65backed No | 18c | 81.11$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b3f…0fa5backed No | 22c | 80.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.73 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +2.8wins | +0.16per pick | 56cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7079…a49fbacked No | 22c | 78.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…b2a5backed No | 19c | 78.8$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ad9…7e66backed No | 16c | 70.89$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked No | 20c | 68.9$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.88 | 110 | 45.5%50 W · 60 L | -6.2wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe49b…f9a4backed No | 30c | 60.69$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc245…34f9backed No | 32c | 58.84$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed Yes | 79c | 58.2$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.22 | 135 | 8.1%11 W · 124 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -28%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x973a…bf0fbacked No | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe391…8432backed No | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1072…f737backed No | 21c | 49.13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes | 60c | 47.86$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.14 | 133 | 43.6%58 W · 75 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde70…62a0backed Yes | 80c | 38.99$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.99 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked Yes | 74c | 38.17$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.92 | 150 | 76%114 W · 36 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a16…518bbacked Yes | 73c | 34.17$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.17 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xebed…04c2backed Yes | 78c | 30.97$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.87 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.31per pick | 49cpaid | +184.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.