Middle East · resolved market
U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by February 21, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfc6aa4d4df442ddd9b04f375dc70eb20284e3ac16625e888d730139dd01a8fbd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,039
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,851
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,039 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 2c | 1,159$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.65 | 492 | 8.7%43 W · 449 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bbd…2bfbbacked Yes | 5c | 1,021$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.76 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Yes | 25c | 892.28$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.97 | 60 | 18.3%11 W · 49 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8717…f8a1backed No | 58c | 857$497 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$359.94 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +2.9wins | +0.15per pick | 53cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7f5c…288abacked Yes | 43c | 789.75$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.23 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 2c | 699.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x926d…635ebacked No | 61c | 676.19$415 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.19 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ccb…6c69backed Yes | 20c | 652$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.4 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63b3…cf7dbacked No | 73c | 520.44$378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.53 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.6wins | -0.43per pick | 59cpaid | -77%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ff…91febacked Yes | 50c | 495.6$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8151…3421backed Yes | 42c | 440$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.8 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.17per pick | 53cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 4c | 434.55$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.38 | 476 | 9.9%47 W · 429 L | +15.1wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +75.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 7c | 417.85$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.98 | 589 | 27.2%160 W · 429 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d51…6f1fbacked Yes | 46c | 343.85$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.17 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed No | 53c | 300$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.3 | 341 | 43.4%148 W · 193 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9453…1a48backed No | 74c | 298.39$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.69 | 132 | 46.2%61 W · 71 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf24…b990backed Yes | 22c | 288.91$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.04 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7f…f745backed Yes | 25c | 287$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.75 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 35cpaid | -8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x22f2…90d7backed No | 75c | 287$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.75 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0af9…0fc3backed No | 50c | 250$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6f…87f9backed No | 18c | 250$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.45per pick | 22cpaid | +192.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe940…0fc4backed Yes | 41c | 246.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -3.7wins | -0.22per pick | 27cpaid | -85.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6494…9577backed No | 50c | 245.6$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0bc…5601backed No | 69c | 219.4$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.4 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -2.8wins | -0.25per pick | 61cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xad90…9090backed No | 80c | 212$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.4 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -2.8wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c29…d822backed No | 46c | 200$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 147 | 24.5%36 W · 111 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 75c | 190.99$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.61 | 207 | 49.3%102 W · 105 L | -23.0wins | -0.11per pick | 60cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 35c | 183.18$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.48 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 34c | 169.72$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.53 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x331a…3856backed No | 49c | 160$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a0…8295backed Yes | 51c | 160$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c6b…28b6backed No | 53c | 125.03$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.45 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +2.9wins | +0.17per pick | 42cpaid | +38.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 53c | 125$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.15 | 261 | 38.7%101 W · 160 L | -11.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 16c | 119.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 678 | 41.6%282 W · 396 L | -20.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa958…a2e7backed No | 56c | 118.38$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.08 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 65cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3336…87adbacked No | 49c | 101.96$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e93…353fbacked No | 50c | 98.6$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.6 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 31c | 92.07$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.31 | 857 | 25.2%216 W · 641 L | -115.1wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes | 20c | 91$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 563 | 36.6%206 W · 357 L | +44.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0ce4…5f17backed No | 52c | 88.73$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -22%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes | 16c | 79.93$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.85 | 66 | 37.9%25 W · 41 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7771…009fbacked No | 50c | 79.46$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.73 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes | 56c | 68.44$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.33 | 473 | 34%161 W · 312 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f51…09adbacked No | 80c | 66$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +4.5wins | +0.22per pick | 40cpaid | +92.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8c01…af62backed No | 55c | 63.93$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.93 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefdd…8370backed Yes | 45c | 62.63$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.49 | 190 | 56.3%107 W · 83 L | +16.9wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x92d0…269ebacked Yes | 49c | 56.12$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.76 | 409 | 39.6%162 W · 247 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51f2…38efbacked Yes | 22c | 53$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.81 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | -5.1wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 35c | 51$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.79 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6911…947cbacked Yes | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.1 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fd3…0d38backed Yes | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a8…6e67backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 134 | 40.3%54 W · 80 L | +8.4wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe339…d6c1backed No | 58c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -22%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3af7…e793backed No | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.45 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ff…b8bbbacked No | 68c | 44.12$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.12 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb767…9b51backed Yes | 42c | 43$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.06 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +34%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x34d5…a977backed No | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.87 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33f9…603dbacked Yes | 49c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.52 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x380c…1099backed No | 55c | 38.18$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6318…12e4backed No | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +113.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3c0d…e5c6backed No | 60c | 33.6$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc034…7d2fbacked Yes | 49c | 31.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.38 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x540a…64c9backed No | 54c | 30.37$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.97 | 51 | 27.5%14 W · 37 L | -8.8wins | -0.17per pick | 45cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x4b28…15dfbacked No | 52c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 162 | 25.9%42 W · 120 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x056c…5066backed No | 60c | 29.75$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.76 | 132 | 28%37 W · 95 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked No | 58c | 29.23$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.34 | 114 | 52.6%60 W · 54 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…f66fbacked Yes | 39c | 28.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.19 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 18cpaid | +136.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7022…f64ebacked No | 58c | 25.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.7 | 99 | 42.4%42 W · 57 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +23%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90b9…1951backed Yes | 50c | 23.7$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 60 | 51.7%31 W · 29 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe365…6030backed No | 73c | 20.47$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.47 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd447…34eabacked No | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.35per pick | 55cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xffb1…b639backed No | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…72f7backed No | 76c | 19.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.74 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by February 21, 2026?this page
- U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by February 28, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.